Introduction and Overview

Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries explores the outstanding issues in global agricultural trade policy and evolving world production and trade patterns. This book presents research findings based on a series of commodity studies of significant economic importance to developing countries. Setting the stage with background chapters and investigations of cross-cutting issues, the authors describe trade and domestic policy regimes affecting agricultural and food markets and analyze product standards and compliance costs and their effects on agricultural and food trade. They then examine the impact and effectiveness of preferences and review the evidence on attempts to decouple agricultural support from agricultural output. Finally, they assess the potential gains from global liberalization in agricultural and food markets, and their sensitivity to various assumptions. Within this broad context of global agricultural policies and reforms, the authors then present detailed studies of commodity markets that feature distorted policy regimes among industrial and developing countries or that are important contributors to exports of developing countries. The commodities analyzed are sugar, dairy, rice, wheat, groundnuts, fruits and vegetables, cotton, seafood, and coffee. These commodity studies analyze current policy regimes in key producing and consuming countries, document the magnitude of these distortions, and estimate the distributional impacts-winners and losers-of trade and domestic policy reforms as well as their impact on trade flows and production location. Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries will aid policymakers and researchers in approaching global negotiations and in evaluating domestic policies on agriculture. This book compliments the findings of Agriculture and the WTO: Creating a Trading System for Development.

Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries

Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries explores the outstanding issues in global agricultural trade policy and evolving world production and trade patterns. This book presents research findings based on a series of commodity studies of significant economic importance to developing countries. Setting the stage with background chapters and investigations of cross-cutting issues, the authors describe trade and domestic policy regimes affecting agricultural and food markets and analyze product standards and compliance costs and their effects on agricultural and food trade. They then examine the impact and effectiveness of preferences and review the evidence on attempts to decouple agricultural support from agricultural output. Finally, they assess the potential gains from global liberalization in agricultural and food markets, and their sensitivity to various assumptions. Within this broad context of global agricultural policies and reforms, the authors then present detailed studies of commodity markets that feature distorted policy regimes among industrial and developing countries or that are important contributors to exports of developing countries. The commodities analyzed are sugar, dairy, rice, wheat, groundnuts, fruits and vegetables, cotton, seafood, and coffee. These commodity studies analyze current policy regimes in key producing and consuming countries, document the magnitude of these distortions, and estimate the distributional impacts-winners and losers-of trade and domestic policy reforms as well as their impact on trade flows and production location. Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries will aid policymakers and researchers in approaching global negotiations and in evaluating domestic policies on agriculture. This book compliments the findings of Agriculture and the WTO: Creating a Trading System for Development.

On random flights with non-uniformly distributed directions

This paper deals with a new class of random flights $\underline{\bf X}_d(t),t>0,$ defined in the real space $\mathbb{R}^d, d\geq 2,$ characterized by non-uniform probability distributions on the multidimensional sphere. These random motions differ from similar models appeared in literature which take directions according to the uniform law. The family of angular probability distributions introduced in this paper depends on a parameter $\nu\geq 0$ which gives the level of drift of the motion. Furthermore, we assume that the number of changes of direction performed by the random flight is fixed. The time lengths between two consecutive changes of orientation have joint probability distribution given by a Dirichlet density function. The analysis of $\underline{\bf X}_d(t),t>0,$ is not an easy task, because it involves the calculation of integrals which are not always solvable. Therefore, we analyze the random flight $\underline{\bf X}_m^d(t),t>0,$ obtained as projection onto the lower spaces $\mathbb{R}^m,m<d,$ of the original random motion in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Then we get the probability distribution of $\underline{\bf X}_m^d(t),t>0.$ Although, in its general framework, the analysis of $\underline{\bf X}_d(t),t>0,$ is very complicated, for some values of $\nu$, we can provide some results on the process. Indeed, for $\nu=1$, we obtain the characteristic function of the random flight moving in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Furthermore, by inverting the characteristic function, we are able to give the analytic form (up to some constants) of the probability distribution of $\underline{\bf X}_d(t),t>0.$Comment: 28 pages, 3 figure

Diffusion in multiscale spacetimes

We study diffusion processes in anomalous spacetimes regarded as models of quantum geometry. Several types of diffusion equation and their solutions are presented and the associated stochastic processes are identified. These results are partly based on the literature in probability and percolation theory but their physical interpretation here is different since they apply to quantum spacetime itself. The case of multiscale (in particular, multifractal) spacetimes is then considered through a number of examples and the most general spectral-dimension profile of multifractional spaces is constructed.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures. v2: discussion improved, typos corrected, references adde

Vibrations and fractional vibrations of rods, plates and Fresnel pseudo-processes

Different initial and boundary value problems for the equation of vibrations of rods (also called Fresnel equation) are solved by exploiting the connection with Brownian motion and the heat equation. The analysis of the fractional version (of order $\nu$) of the Fresnel equation is also performed and, in detail, some specific cases, like $\nu=1/2$, 1/3, 2/3, are analyzed. By means of the fundamental solution of the Fresnel equation, a pseudo-process $F(t)$, $t>0$ with real sign-varying density is constructed and some of its properties examined. The equation of vibrations of plates is considered and the case of circular vibrating disks $C_R$ is investigated by applying the methods of planar orthogonally reflecting Brownian motion within $C_R$. The composition of F with reflecting Brownian motion $B$ yields the law of biquadratic heat equation while the composition of $F$ with the first passage time $T_t$ of $B$ produces a genuine probability law strictly connected with the Cauchy process.Comment: 33 pages,8 figure

Semi-Markov Graph Dynamics

In this paper, we outline a model of graph (or network) dynamics based on two ingredients. The first ingredient is a Markov chain on the space of possible graphs. The second ingredient is a semi-Markov counting process of renewal type. The model consists in subordinating the Markov chain to the semi-Markov counting process. In simple words, this means that the chain transitions occur at random time instants called epochs. The model is quite rich and its possible connections with algebraic geometry are briefly discussed. Moreover, for the sake of simplicity, we focus on the space of undirected graphs with a fixed number of nodes. However, in an example, we present an interbank market model where it is meaningful to use directed graphs or even weighted graphs.Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PLoS-ON

FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2001 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) prepares a preliminary agricultural outlook on world agricultural production, consumption, and trade every fall. This is followed by an outside review, re-evaluation of projections, and completion of the final baseline in January. The FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook presents these final projections for world agricultural markets. A companion volume, the FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook, presents the U.S. component of the baseline. FAPRI projections assume average weather patterns worldwide, existing policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements. FAPRI projections do not include conjectures on potential policy changes, such as those resulting from the likely eastward enlargement of the European Union (EU). The baseline predicts recovery of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade, but with remaining price weakness for crops. Stock-to-use ratios in world crop markets remain high despite the strong recovery of Asian and Latin American economies. Above-average yields kept world production high relative to demand in 1999. In contrast, pork and beef prices are increasing significantly above their 1999 level. The physical volume of U.S. agricultural exports is projected to reverse the downward trend of fiscal year (FY) 1999, whereas the value of agricultural exports continue to decline for one more year before recovering because of low crop prices in 2000/01. World crop trade is projected to increase by 55 million metric tons (mmt) in the coming decade, with the United States capturing 49 percent of the expanded market, but still unable to increase its market share by a large percentage. Following this expansion of the market, grain prices increase by 35 percent in the projection period, but still stay well below the peak of 1995/96. The increase in world crop trade reflects the increasing specialization occurring in world agriculture. Increased market access and land scarcity in many Asian economies induce them to import grains and oilseeds to meet their feed demand. Developing Asia remains the fastest growing market for corn in the next decade. With implementation of Agenda 2000 reforms, the EU will reduce its wheat domestic price relative to the world price and will export wheat without subsidies after 2004, constraining gains in market shares for the United States. EU barley exports will expand significantly in the coming years but are likely to be constrained by General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) commitments on export subsidies after 2004. World meat trade will increase by 31 percent over the next decade. The United States has become a competitive producer and exporter of meat products. In the coming decade, the United States will experience the largest meat export growth rates among major exporters of beef, pork, and broilers. U.S. exporters capture more than 70 percent of the growth in trade, increasing their share of the combined meat markets from 23 percent in 1999 to 37 percent in 2009. Meat imports are recovering and expanding rapidly in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In Japan, the share of imports in consumption increases from 38 percent in the 1990s to 49 percent at the end of the next decade. Taiwan meat imports will triple from 1990-1999 levels to 2000-2009 levels, driven by imports of beef, non muscle pork products, and the opening of the poultry market. Recovery of Asian food demand will prompt dairy prices to grow by about 1 percent per year over the next decade. Total milk production is projected to increase, with particularly strong growth in the United States, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. Most of the growth occurs through yield increases. Per capita cheese consumption is expected to grow by 1 to 2 percent a year in most countries.Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

Ready-to-eat cereals improve nutrient, milk and fruit intake at breakfast in European adolescents

Purpose: Breakfast consumption has been recommended as part of a healthy diet. Recently, ready-to-eat cereals (RTEC) became more popular as a breakfast item. Our aim was to analyse the dietary characteristics of an RTEC breakfast in European adolescents and to compare them with other breakfast options.Methods: From the European multi-centre HELENA study, two 24-h dietary recalls of 3137 adolescents were available. Food items (RTEC or bread, milk/yoghurt, fruit) and macro- and micronutrient intakes at breakfast were calculated. Cross-sectional regression analyses were adjusted for gender, age, socio-economic status and city. Results: Compared to bread breakfasts (39 %) and all other breakfasts (41.5 %), RTEC breakfast (19.5 %) was associated with improved nutrient intake (less fat and less sucrose//more fibre, protein and some micronutrients like vitamin B, calcium, magnesium and phosphorus) at the breakfast occasion. Exceptions were more simple sugars in RTEC breakfast consumers: more lactose and galactose due to increased milk consumption, but also higher glucose and fructose than bread consumers. RTEC consumers had a significantly higher frequency (92.5 vs. 50.4 and 60.2 %) and quantity of milk/yoghurt intake and a slightly higher frequency of fruit intake (13.4 vs. 10.9 and 8.0 %) at breakfast. Conclusions: Among European adolescents, RTEC consumers showed a more favourable nutrient intake than consumers of bread or other breakfasts, except for simple sugars. Therefore, RTEC may be regarded as a good breakfast option as part of a varied and balanced diet. Nevertheless, more research is warranted concerning the role of different RTEC types in nutrient intake, especially for simple sugars