A tale of two disasters: biases in risk communication

Theme for 2016: Recognizing and representing eventsRisk communication, where scientists inform policy-makers or the populace of the probability and magnitude of possible disasters, is essential to disaster management – enabling people to make better decisions regarding preventative steps, evacuations, etc. Psychological research, however, has identified multiple biases that can affect people’s interpretation of probabilities and thus risk. For example, availability (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973) is known to confound probability estimates while the descriptionexperience gap (D-E Gap) (Hertwig & Erev, 2009) shows low probability events being over-weighted when described and under-weighted when learnt from laboratory tasks. This paper examines how probability descriptions interact with real world experience of events. Responses from 294 participants across 8 conditions showed that people’s responses, given the same described probabilities and consequences, were altered by their familiarity with the disaster (bushfire vs earthquake) and its salience to them personally. The implications of this for risk communication are discussed.Matthew B. Welsh, Sandy Steacy, Steve H. Begg, Daniel J. Navarr

An efficient Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) algorithm for the Discontinuous Galerkin method: Applications for the computation of compressible two-phase flows

We present an Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) method suitable for hybrid unstructured meshes that allows for local refinement and de-refinement of the computational grid during the evolution of the flow. The adaptive implementation of the Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method introduced in this work (ForestDG) is based on a topological representation of the computational mesh by a hierarchical structure consisting of oct- quad- and binary trees. Adaptive mesh refinement (h-refinement) enables us to increase the spatial resolution of the computational mesh in the vicinity of the points of interest such as interfaces, geometrical features, or flow discontinuities. The local increase in the expansion order (p-refinement) at areas of high strain rates or vorticity magnitude results in an increase of the order of accuracy in the region of shear layers and vortices. A graph of unitarian-trees, representing hexahedral, prismatic and tetrahedral elements is used for the representation of the initial domain. The ancestral elements of the mesh can be split into self-similar elements allowing each tree to grow branches to an arbitrary level of refinement. The connectivity of the elements, their genealogy and their partitioning are described by linked lists of pointers. An explicit calculation of these relations, presented in this paper, facilitates the on-the-fly splitting, merging and repartitioning of the computational mesh by rearranging the links of each node of the tree with a minimal computational overhead. The modal basis used in the DG implementation facilitates the mapping of the fluxes across the non conformal faces. The AMR methodology is presented and assessed using a series of inviscid and viscous test cases. Also, the AMR methodology is used for the modelling of the interaction between droplets and the carrier phase in a two-phase flow. This approach is applied to the analysis of a spray injected into a chamber of quiescent air, using the Eulerian–Lagrangian approach. This enables us to refine the computational mesh in the vicinity of the droplet parcels and accurately resolve the coupling between the two phases

What is the contribution of physician associates in hospital care in England? A mixed methods, multiple case study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the deployment of physician associates (PAs); the factors supporting and inhibiting their employment and their contribution and impact on patients' experience and outcomes and the organisation of services. DESIGN: Mixed methods within a case study design, using interviews, observations, work diaries and documentary analysis. SETTING: Six acute care hospitals in three regions of England in 2016-2017. PARTICIPANTS: 43 PAs, 77 other health professionals, 28 managers, 28 patients and relatives. RESULTS: A key influencing factor supporting the employment of PAs in all settings was a shortage of doctors. PAs were found to be acceptable, appropriate and safe members of the medical/surgical teams by the majority of doctors, managers and nurses. They were mainly deployed to undertake inpatient ward work in the medical/surgical team during core weekday hours. They were reported to positively contribute to: continuity within their medical/surgical team, patient experience and flow, inducting new junior doctors, supporting the medical/surgical teams' workload, which released doctors for more complex patients and their training. The lack of regulation and attendant lack of authority to prescribe was seen as a problem in many but not all specialties. The contribution of PAs to productivity and patient outcomes was not quantifiable separately from other members of the team and wider service organisation. Patients and relatives described PAs positively but most did not understand who and what a PA was, often mistaking them for doctors. CONCLUSIONS: This study offers new insights concerning the deployment and contribution of PAs in medical and surgical specialties in English hospitals. PAs provided a flexible addition to the secondary care workforce without drawing from existing professions. Their utility in the hospital setting is unlikely to be completely realised without the appropriate level of regulation and authority to prescribe medicines and order ionising radiation within their scope of practice

The first international workshop on the role and impact of mathematics in medicine: a collective account

The First International Workshop on The Role and Impact of Mathematics in Medicine (RIMM) convened in Paris in June 2010. A broad range of researchers discussed the difficulties, challenges and opportunities faced by those wishing to see mathematical methods contribute to improved medical outcomes. Finding mechanisms for inter- disciplinary meetings, developing a common language, staying focused on the medical problem at hand, deriving realistic mathematical solutions, obtainin

Estimating the Empirical Lorenz Curve and Gini Coefficient in the Presence of Error

The Lorenz curve is a graphical tool that is widely used to characterize the concentration of a measure in a population, such as wealth. It is frequently the case that the measure of interest used to rank experimental units when estimating the empirical Lorenz curve, and the corresponding Gini coefficient, is subject to random error. This error can result in an incorrect ranking of experimental units which inevitably leads to a curve that exaggerates the degree of concentration (variation) in the population. We explore this bias and discuss several widely available statistical methods that have the potential to reduce or remove the bias in the empirical Lorenz curve. The properties of these methods are examined and compared in a simulation study. This work is motivated by a health outcomes application which seeks to assess the concentration of black patient visits among primary care physicians. The methods are illustrated on data from this study

Fluctuations and Non-Hermiticity in the Stochastic Approach to Quantum Spins

We investigate the non-equilibrium dynamics of isolated quantum spin systems via an exact mapping to classical stochastic differential equations. We show that one can address significantly larger system sizes than recently obtained, including two-dimensional systems with up to 49 spins. We demonstrate that the results for physical observables are in excellent agreement with exact results and alternative numerical techniques where available. We further develop a hybrid stochastic approach involving matrix product states. In the presence of finite numerical sampling, we show that the non-Hermitian character of the stochastic representation leads to the growth of the norm of the time-evolving quantum state and to departures for physical observables at late times. We demonstrate approaches that correct for this and discuss the prospects for further development.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, Supplementary Materia

Identification of foot pathologies based on plantar pressure asymmetry

Foot pathologies can negatively influence foot function, consequently impairing gait during daily activity, and severely impacting an individual’s quality of life. These pathologies are often painful and correspond with high or abnormal plantar pressure, which can result in asymmetry in the pressure distribution between the two feet. There is currently no general consensus on the presence of asymmetry in able-bodied gait, and plantar pressure analysis during gait is in dire need of a standardized method to quantify asymmetry. This paper investigates the use of plantar pressure asymmetry for pathological gait diagnosis. The results of this study involving plantar pressure analysis in fifty one participants (31 healthy and 20 with foot pathologies) support the presence of plantar pressure asymmetry in normal gait. A higher level of asymmetry was detected at the majority of the regions in the feet of the pathological population, including statistically significant differences in the plantar pressure asymmetry in two regions of the foot, metatarsophalangeal joint 3 (MPJ3) and the lateral heel. Quantification of plantar pressure asymmetry may prove to be useful for the identification and diagnosis of various foot pathologies

Trajectory-Resolved Weiss Fields for Quantum Spin Dynamics

We explore the dynamics of quantum spin systems in two and three dimensions using an exact mapping to classical stochastic processes. In recent work we explored the effectiveness of sampling around the mean field evolution as determined by a stochastically averaged Weiss field. Here, we show that this approach can be significantly extended by sampling around the instantaneous Weiss field associated with each stochastic trajectory taken separately. This trajectory-resolved approach incorporates sample to sample fluctuations and allows for longer simulation times. We demonstrate the utility of this approach for quenches in the two-dimensional and three-dimensional quantum Ising model. We show that the method is particularly advantageous in situations where the average Weiss-field vanishes, but the trajectory-resolved Weiss fields are non-zero. We discuss the connection to the gauge-P phase space approach, where the trajectory-resolved Weiss field can be interpreted as a gauge degree of freedom.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure