Changes in daily mental health service use and mortality at the commencement and lifting of COVID-19 ‘lockdown’ policy in 10 UK sites: a regression discontinuity in time design

Objectives: To investigate changes in daily mental health (MH) service use and mortality in response to the introduction and the lifting of the COVID-19 ‘lockdown’ policy in Spring 2020. Design: A regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) analysis of daily service-level activity. Setting and participants: Mental healthcare data were extracted from 10 UK providers. Outcome measures: Daily (weekly for one site) deaths from all causes, referrals and discharges, inpatient care (admissions, discharges, caseloads) and community services (face-to-face (f2f)/non-f2f contacts, caseloads): Adult, older adult and child/adolescent mental health; early intervention in psychosis; home treatment teams and liaison/Accident and Emergency (A&E). Data were extracted from 1 Jan 2019 to 31 May 2020 for all sites, supplemented to 31 July 2020 for four sites. Changes around the commencement and lifting of COVID-19 ‘lockdown’ policy (23 March and 10 May, respectively) were estimated using a RDiT design with a difference-in-difference approach generating incidence rate ratios (IRRs), meta-analysed across sites. Results: Pooled estimates for the lockdown transition showed increased daily deaths (IRR 2.31, 95% CI 1.86 to 2.87), reduced referrals (IRR 0.62, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.70) and reduced inpatient admissions (IRR 0.75, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.83) and caseloads (IRR 0.85, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.91) compared with the pre lockdown period. All community services saw shifts from f2f to non-f2f contacts, but varied in caseload changes. Lift of lockdown was associated with reduced deaths (IRR 0.42, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.66), increased referrals (IRR 1.36, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.60) and increased inpatient admissions (IRR 1.21, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.42) and caseloads (IRR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.12) compared with the lockdown period. Site-wide activity, inpatient care and community services did not return to pre lockdown levels after lift of lockdown, while number of deaths did. Between-site heterogeneity most often indicated variation in size rather than direction of effect. Conclusions: MH service delivery underwent sizeable changes during the first national lockdown, with as-yet unknown and unevaluated consequences

A public health approach to estimating the need for long COVID services

Background The term ‘long COVID’ describes ongoing symptoms and conditions experienced by people infected with SARS-CoV-2. This paper illustrates how a public health approach was used to influence and inform the development of post-COVID services across two Integrated Care Systems (ICSs). Methods A literature review was conducted between October and December 2020 to identify prevalence estimates for long COVID. The prevalence estimates were applied to locally available data on the susceptible population to estimate the number of people with long COVID. They were also used to develop a dashboard to predict fluctuations in the number of people experiencing persistent symptoms over time. Results A substantial number of people in each ICS may have experienced persistent symptoms or complications as a result of COVID-19. In Lancashire and South Cumbria, it is estimated that 33 000 people may have experienced post-COVID-19 syndrome since the beginning of the pandemic, which will include respiratory or cardiovascular complications. Conclusions The findings have been valuable in informing early service developments, engaging with managers and clinicians, and supporting applications for funding at a local level. Continued attention to emergent evidence on this topic will be vital in refining estimates and supporting service planning in the longer term