Accounting for Seismic Risk in Financial Analysis of Property Investment

A methodology is presented for making property investment decisions using loss analysis and the principles of decision analysis. It proposes that the investor choose among competing investment alternatives on the basis of the certainty equivalent of their net asset value which depends on the uncertain discounted future net income, uncertain discounted future earthquake losses, initial equity and the investor’s risk tolerance. The earthquake losses are modelled using a seismic vulnerability function, the site seismic hazard function, and an assumption that strong shaking at a site follows a Poisson process. A building-specific vulnerability approach, called assembly-based vulnerability, or ABV, is used. ABV involves a simulation approach that includes dynamic structural analyses and damage analyses using fragility functions and probability distributions on unit repair costs and downtimes for all vulnerable structural and nonstructural components in a building. The methodology is demonstrated using some results from a seven-storey reinforced-concrete hotel in Los Angeles

Distributed-Pair Programming can work well and is not just Distributed Pair-Programming

Background: Distributed Pair Programming can be performed via screensharing or via a distributed IDE. The latter offers the freedom of concurrent editing (which may be helpful or damaging) and has even more awareness deficits than screen sharing. Objective: Characterize how competent distributed pair programmers may handle this additional freedom and these additional awareness deficits and characterize the impacts on the pair programming process. Method: A revelatory case study, based on direct observation of a single, highly competent distributed pair of industrial software developers during a 3-day collaboration. We use recordings of these sessions and conceptualize the phenomena seen. Results: 1. Skilled pairs may bridge the awareness deficits without visible obstruction of the overall process. 2. Skilled pairs may use the additional editing freedom in a useful limited fashion, resulting in potentially better fluency of the process than local pair programming. Conclusion: When applied skillfully in an appropriate context, distributed-pair programming can (not will!) work at least as well as local pair programming

PO and PN in the wind of the oxygen-rich AGB star IK Tau

Phosphorus-bearing compounds have only been studied in the circumstellar environments (CSEs) of the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star IRC +10216 and the protoplanetary nebula CRL 2688, both C-rich objects, and the O-rich red supergiant VY CMa. The current chemical models cannot reproduce the high abundances of PO and PN derived from observations of VY CMa. No observations have been reported of phosphorus in the CSEs of O-rich AGB stars. We aim to set observational constraints on the phosphorous chemistry in the CSEs of O-rich AGB stars, by focussing on the Mira-type variable star IK Tau. Using the IRAM 30m telescope and the Submillimeter Array (SMA), we observed four rotational transitions of PN (J=2-1,3-2,6-5,7-6) and four of PO (J=5/2-3/2,7/2-5/2,13/2-11/2,15/2-13/2). The IRAM 30m observations were dedicated line observations, while the SMA data come from an unbiased spectral survey in the frequency range 279-355 GHz. We present the first detections of PN and PO in an O-rich AGB star and estimate abundances X(PN/H2) of about 3x10^-7 and X(PO/H2) in the range 0.5-6.0x10^-7. This is several orders of magnitude higher than what is found for the C-rich AGB star IRC +10216. The diameter (<=0.7") of the PN and PO emission distributions measured in the interferometric data corresponds to a maximum radial extent of about 40 stellar radii. The abundances and the spatial occurrence of the molecules are in very good agreement with the results reported for VY CMa. We did not detect PS or PH3 in the survey. We suggest that PN and PO are the main carriers of phosphorus in the gas phase, with abundances possibly up to several 10^-7. The current chemical models cannot account for this, underlining the strong need for updated chemical models that include phosphorous compounds.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics, 10 pages, 8 figure

Cool Core Clusters from Cosmological Simulations

We present results obtained from a set of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations of galaxy clusters, aimed at comparing predictions with observational data on the diversity between cool-core (CC) and non-cool-core (NCC) clusters. Our simulations include the effects of stellar and AGN feedback and are based on an improved version of the smoothed particle hydrodynamics code GADGET-3, which ameliorates gas mixing and better captures gas-dynamical instabilities by including a suitable artificial thermal diffusion. In this Letter, we focus our analysis on the entropy profiles, the primary diagnostic we used to classify the degree of cool-coreness of clusters, and on the iron profiles. In keeping with observations, our simulated clusters display a variety of behaviors in entropy profiles: they range from steadily decreasing profiles at small radii, characteristic of cool-core systems, to nearly flat core isentropic profiles, characteristic of non-cool-core systems. Using observational criteria to distinguish between the two classes of objects, we find that they occur in similar proportions in both simulations and in observations. Furthermore, we also find that simulated cool-core clusters have profiles of iron abundance that are steeper than those of NCC clusters, which is also in agreement with observational results. We show that the capability of our simulations to generate a realistic cool-core structure in the cluster population is due to AGN feedback and artificial thermal diffusion: their combined action allows us to naturally distribute the energy extracted from super-massive black holes and to compensate for the radiative losses of low-entropy gas with short cooling time residing in the cluster core.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, accepted in ApJL, v2 contains some modifications on the text (results unchanged

Livestock Auctions in South Dakota: An Economic Analysis

In the early stages of development of livestock auctions, transportation and production conditions largely limited the distance from which firms could procure livestock. As a result most auctions were too small to attain any significant degree of efficiency in operations. In recent years, the continual development and improvement in roads and truck transportation, along with the trend toward larger producers, have reduced the time and cost of transporting livestock. As a result, procurement areas for auction firms have increased. With larger supply areas, the potential volume of auction firms has increased. With this increase in volume should come greater operational efficiency and, ultimately, lower marketing charges and costs. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to examine the cost structure of the livestock auctions in South Dakota to determine if there is any relationship between cost, volume and marketing charges

Bayesian Updating of Nonlinear Model Predictions using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

The usual practice in system identification is to use system data to identify one model from a set of possible models and then to use this model for predicting system behavior. In contrast, the present robust predictive approach rigorously combines the predictions of all the possible models, appropriately weighted by their updated probabilities based on the data. This Bayesian system identification approach is applied to update the robust reliability of a dynamical system based on its measured response time histories. A Markov chain simulation method based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and an adaptive scheme is proposed to evaluate the robust reliability integrals. An example for updating the reliability of a Duffing oscillator is given to illustrate the proposed method

Coulomb Charging Effects for Finite Channel Number

We consider quantum fluctuations of the charge on a small metallic grain caused by virtual electron tunneling to a nearby electrode. The average electron number and the effective charging energy are determined by means of perturbation theory in the tunneling Hamiltonian. In particular we discuss the dependence of charging effects on the number N of tunneling channels. Earlier results for N>>1 are found to be approached rather rapidly with increasing N.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

Connecting Angular Momentum and Galactic Dynamics: The complex Interplay between Spin, Mass, and Morphology

The evolution and distribution of the angular momentum of dark matter (DM) halos have been discussed in several studies over the past decades. In particular, the idea arose that angular momentum conservation should allow to infer the total angular momentum of the entire DM halo from measuring the angular momentum of the baryonic component, which is populating the center of the halo, especially for disk galaxies. To test this idea and to understand the connection between the angular momentum of the DM halo and its galaxy, we use the Magneticum simulations. We successfully produce populations of spheroidal and disk galaxies self-consistently. Thus, we are able to study the dependence of galactic properties on their morphology. We find that (1) the specific angular momentum of stars in disk and spheroidal galaxies as a function of their stellar mass compares well with observational results; (2) the specific angular momentum of the stars in disk galaxies is slightly smaller compared to the specific angular momentum of the cold gas, in good agreement with observations; (3) simulations including the baryonic component show a dichotomy in the specific stellar angular momentum distribution when splitting the galaxies according to their morphological type (this dichotomy can also be seen in the spin parameter, where disk galaxies populate halos with slightly larger spin compared to spheroidal galaxies); (4) disk galaxies preferentially populate halos in which the angular momentum vector of the DM component in the central part shows a better alignment to the angular momentum vector of the entire halo; and (5) the specific angular momentum of the cold gas in disk galaxies is approximately 40 percent smaller than the specific angular momentum of the total DM halo and shows a significant scatter.Comment: 25 pages, accepted by ApJ, www.magneticum.or

Money in monetary policy design: monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model

In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross-check in policy formulation (see Lucas (2007)). We show that the New-Keynesian model can explain such trends if one allows for the possibility of persistent central bank misperceptions. Such misperceptions motivate the search for policies that include additional robustness checks. In earlier work, we proposed an interest rate rule that is near-optimal in normal times but includes a cross-check with monetary information. In case of unusual monetary trends, interest rates are adjusted. In this paper, we show in detail how to derive the appropriate magnitude of the interest rate adjustment following a significant cross-check with monetary information, when the New-Keynesian model is the central bank’s preferred model. The cross-check is shown to be effective in offsetting persistent deviations of inflation due to central bank misperceptions. Keywords: Monetary Policy, New-Keynesian Model, Money, Quantity Theory, European Central Bank, Policy Under Uncertaint