Economic and physical determinants of the global distributions of crop pests and pathogens

Crop pests and pathogens pose a significant and growing threat to food security, but their geographical distributions are poorly understood. We present a global analysis of pest and pathogen distributions, to determine the roles of socioeconomic and biophysical factors in determining pest diversity, controlling for variation in observational capacity among countries. Known distributions of 1901 pests and pathogens were obtained from CABI. Linear models were used to partition the variation in pest species per country amongst predictors. Reported pest numbers increased with per capita gross domestic product (GDP), research expenditure and research capacity, and the influence of economics was greater in micro-organisms than in arthropods. Total crop production and crop diversity were the strongest physical predictors of pest numbers per country, but trade and tourism were insignificant once other factors were controlled. Islands reported more pests than mainland countries, but no latitudinal gradient in species richness was evident. Country wealth is likely to be a strong indicator of observational capacity, not just trade flow, as has been interpreted in invasive species studies. If every country had US levels of per capita GDP, then 205 +/- 9 additional pests per country would be reported, suggesting that enhanced investment in pest observations will reveal the hidden threat of crop pests and pathogens

Genetic steps to organ laterality in zebrafish.

All internal organs are asymmetric along the left-right axis. Here we report a genetic screen to discover mutations which perturb organ laterality. Our particular focus is upon whether, and how, organs are linked to each other as they achieve their laterally asymmetric positions. We generated mutations by ENU mutagenesis and examined F3 progeny using a cocktail of probes that reveal early primordia of heart, gut, liver and pancreas. From the 750 genomes examined, we isolated seven recessive mutations which affect the earliest left-right positioning of one or all of the organs. None of these mutations caused discernable defects elsewhere in the embryo at the stages examined. This is in contrast to those mutations we reported previously (Chen et al., 1997) which, along with left-right abnormalities, cause marked perturbation in gastrulation, body form or midline structures. We find that the mutations can be classified on the basis of whether they perturb relationships among organ laterality. In Class 1 mutations, none of the organs manifest any left-right asymmetry. The heart does not jog to the left and normally leftpredominant BMP4 in the early heart tube remains symmetric. The gut tends to remain midline. There frequently is a remarkable bilateral duplication of liver and pancreas. Embryos with Class 2 mutations have organotypic asymmetry but, in any given embryo, organ positions can be normal, reversed or randomized. Class 3 reveals a hitherto unsuspected gene that selectively affects laterality of heart. We find that visceral organ positions are predicted by the direction of the preceding cardiac jog. We interpret this as suggesting that normally there is linkage between cardiac and visceral organ laterality. Class 1 mutations, we suggest, effectively remove the global laterality signals, with the consequence that organ positions are effectively symmetrical. Embryos with Class 2 mutations do manifest linkage among organs, but it may be reversed, suggesting that the global signals may be present but incorrectly orientated in some of the embryos. That laterality decisions of organs may be independently perturbed, as in the Class 3 mutation, indicates that there are distinctive pathways for reception and organotypic interpretation of the global signals

Using climate information to support crop breeding decisions and adaptation in agriculture

Population growth in the next few decades will increase the need for food production, while the yields of major food crops could be impacted by the changing climate and changing threats from pests and pathogens. Crop breeding, both through conventional techniques, and GM assisted breeding could help meet these challenges, if adequately supported by appropriate information on the future climate. We highlight some of the major challenges for crop breeders and growers in the coming decades, and describe the main characteristics of crop breeding techniques and other adaptation options for agriculture. We review recent uses of climate information to support crop breeding decisions and make recommendations for how this might be improved. We conclude that there is significant potential for breeders to work more closely with climate scientists and crop modellers in order to address the challenges of climate change. It is not yet clear how climate information can best be used. Fruitful areas of investigation include: provision of climate information to identify key target breeding traits and develop improved success criteria (e.g. for heat/drought stress); identification of those conditions under which multiple stress factors (for example, heat stress, mid-season drought stress, flowering drought stress, terminal drought stress) are important in breeding programmes; use of climate information to inform selection of trial sites; identification of the range of environments and locations under which crop trials should be performed (likely to be a wider range of environments than done at present); identification of appropriate duration of trials (likely to be longer than current trials, due to the importance of capturing extreme events); and definition of appropriate methods for incorporating climate information into crop breeding programmes, depending on the specific needs of the breeding programme and the strengths and weaknesses of available approaches. Better knowledge is needed on climate-related thresholds important to crop breeders, for example on the frequency and severity of extreme climate events relevant to the product profile, or to help provide tailored climate analyses (particularly for extreme events). The uncertainties inherent in climate and impact projections provide a particular challenge for translating climate science into actionable outcomes for agriculture. Further work is needed to explore relevant social and economic assumptions such as the level and distribution of real incomes, changing consumption patterns, health impacts, impacts on markets and trade, and the impact of legislation relating to conservation, the environment and climate change

Relationships between tree growth and weather extremes: spatial and interspecific comparisons in a temperate broadleaf forest

Three years of monthly growth increment data identified large interannual differences in growth rate across six contrasting species in a broadleaved, temperate forest with minimum management intervention (Wytham Woods, UK). Growth rates varied by species and canopy position, and were higher in canopy species. Growth rate in 2010 was up to 40% lower than in 2011 and 2012. This can best be explained as an effect of low temperature, which delayed the start of spring and the growing season. This had a greater impact on the growth of sub-canopy trees than that of canopy species. In temperate systems, late spring and summer is an important component of the whole growing season carbon balance because of long day length. In 2010 there were also periods of lower-than-average rainfall, which may additionally have constrained growth during the growing season. Fluctuations and seasonal changes in both temperature and rainfall are projected to continue, so we may expect to see increasing differences in growth and growth rates. A small effect of location relative to the nearest edge was also detected, with higher growth rates only found >50. m from the forest edge. The findings have implications for forest structure and productivity under climate change, and may thus inform current and future forest management

Experimental evidence for the interacting effects of forest edge, moisture and soil macrofauna on leaf litter decomposition

a b s t r a c t Forest ecosystems have been widely fragmented by human land use. Fragmentation induces significant microclimatic and biological differences at the forest edge relative to the forest interior. Increased exposure to solar radiation and wind at forest edges reduces soil moisture, which in turn affects leaf litter decomposition. We investigate the effect of forest fragmentation, soil moisture, soil macrofauna and litter quality on leaf litter decomposition to test the hypothesis that decomposition will be slower at a forest edge relative to the interior and that this effect is driven by lower soil moisture at the forest edge. Experimental plots were established at Wytham Woods, UK, and an experimental watering treatment was applied in plots at the forest edge and interior. Decomposition rate was measured using litter bags of two different mesh sizes, to include or exclude invertebrate macrofauna, and containing leaf litter of two tree species: easily decomposing ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) and recalcitrant oak (Quercus robur L.). The decomposition rate was moisture-limited at both sites. However, the soil was moister and decomposition for both species was faster in the forest interior than at the edge. The presence of macrofauna accelerated the decomposition rate regardless of moisture conditions, and was particularly important in the decomposition of the recalcitrant oak. However, there was no effect of the watering treatment on macrofauna species richness and abundance. This study demonstrates the effect of forest fragmentation on an important ecosystem process, providing new insights into the interacting effects of moisture conditions, litter quality, forest edge and soil macrofauna

What do changing weather and climate shocks and stresses mean for the UK food system?

In light of the publication of Henry Dimbleby’s National Food Strategy (www.nationalfoodstrategy. org/) and the COP26 climate meeting in Glasgow, it is timely to consider the impacts of weather and climate extremes on the UK food system. Climate change-driven changes in extreme weather events are one of the highest-risk future shocks to the UK food system [1], underlining the importance of preparedness across the food chain [2]. Here, we identify major knowledge gaps in the primary impacts of extreme weather and climate change across the UK’s food system, its functioning and their interactions to provide information to support adaptation and resilience planning. Research tends to focus on individual food system activities rather than taking a systematic approach [3, 4]. How- ever, strong evidence exists about the impacts of long- term climate trends and extremes [5] on primary food production [6]. The major knowledge gaps therefore concern post-primary production dimensions [4], notably food system activities between the ‘farm-gate’ and consumption—which are the core focus of this paper (supplementary material S1 available online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/17/051001/mmedia). These constitute major economic and social dimensions but are often the ‘missing middle’ in food system discus- sions. We use the UK food system as an illustrative case study, and consider both global and domestic risks and implications. We present methods, tools and frameworks for systemic analysis of climate impacts on food systems, consider the funding landscape, and highlight priorities for future research

Heat treatment significantly increases the sharpness of silcrete stone tools

Humans were regularly heat-treating stone tool raw materials as early as 130,000 years ago. The late Middle Stone Age (MSA) and Late Stone Age (LSA) of South Africa's Western Cape region provides some of the earliest and most pervasive archaeological evidence for this behaviour. While archaeologists are beginning to understand the flaking implications of raw material heat treatment, its potential functional benefits remain unanswered. Using silcrete from the Western Cape region, we investigate the impact of heat treatment on stone tool cutting performance. We quantify the sharpness of silcrete in its natural, unheated form, before comparing it with silcrete heated in three different conditions. Results show that heat-treated silcrete can be significantly sharper than unheated alternatives, with cutting forces halving and energy requirements reducing by approximately two-thirds. The data suggest that silcrete may have been heat treated during the South African MSA and LSA to increase the sharpness and performance of stone cutting edges. This early example of material engineering has implications for understanding Stone Age populations’ technological capabilities, inventiveness and raw material choices. We predict that heat-treatment behaviours in other prehistoric and ethnographic contexts may also be linked to increases in edge sharpness and concerns about functional performance

Electronic Patient Reporting of Adverse Events and Quality of Life: A Prospective Feasibility Study in General Oncology

PURPOSE: Adverse event (AE) reporting is essential in clinical trials. Clinician interpretation can result in under-reporting; therefore, the value of patient self-reporting has been recognized. The National Cancer Institute has developed a Patient-Reported Outcomes version of the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (PRO-CTCAE) for direct patient AE reporting. A nonrandomized prospective cohort feasibility study aimed to explore the compliance and acceptability of an electronic (Internet or telephone) system for collecting patient self-reported AEs and quality of life (QOL). METHODS: Oncology patients undergoing treatment (chemotherapy, targeted agents, hormone therapy, radiotherapy, and/or surgery) at 2 hospitals were sent automated weekly reminders to complete PRO-CTCAE once a week and QOL (for a maximum of 12 weeks). Patients had to speak/understand English and have access to the Internet or a touch-tone telephone. Primary outcome was compliance (proportion of expected questionnaires), and recruitment rate, attrition, and patient/staff feedback were also explored. RESULTS: Of 520 patients, 249 consented (47.9%)—mean age was 62 years, 51% were male, and 70% were married—and 230 remained on the study at week 12. PRO-CTCAE was completed at 2,301 (74.9%) of 3,074 timepoints and QOL at 749 (79.1%) of 947 timepoints. Individual weekly/once every 4 weeks compliance reduced over time but was more than 60% throughout. Of 230 patients, 106 (46.1%) completed 13 or more PRO-CTCAE, and 136 (59.1%) of 230 patients completed 4 QOL questionnaires. Most were completed on the Internet (82.3%; mean age, 60.8 years), which was quicker, but older patients preferred the telephone option (mean age, 70.0 years). Positive feedback was received from patients and staff. CONCLUSION: Self-reporting of AEs and QOL using an electronic home-based system is feasible and acceptable. Implementation of this approach in cancer clinical trials may improve the precision and accuracy of AE reporting

How Many Species Are There on Earth and in the Ocean?

The diversity of life is one of the most striking aspects of our planet; hence knowing how many species inhabit Earth is among the most fundamental questions in science. Yet the answer to this question remains enigmatic, as efforts to sample the world's biodiversity to date have been limited and thus have precluded direct quantification of global species richness, and because indirect estimates rely on assumptions that have proven highly controversial. Here we show that the higher taxonomic classification of species (i.e., the assignment of species to phylum, class, order, family, and genus) follows a consistent and predictable pattern from which the total number of species in a taxonomic group can be estimated. This approach was validated against well-known taxa, and when applied to all domains of life, it predicts ∼8.7 million (±1.3 million SE) eukaryotic species globally, of which ∼2.2 million (±0.18 million SE) are marine. In spite of 250 years of taxonomic classification and over 1.2 million species already catalogued in a central database, our results suggest that some 86% of existing species on Earth and 91% of species in the ocean still await description. Renewed interest in further exploration and taxonomy is required if this significant gap in our knowledge of life on Earth is to be closed