Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Learning in the Palaver Hut: The ‘Africa Study Visit’ as teaching tool.

noThe aim of this article is to assess the experiential learning environment of the African Study Visit (ASV). It presents a theoretically grounded analysis of the ASV. Although field visits are not a new phenomenon within Higher Education, they seem, but with few exceptions, to be considered as an add-on teaching method. By drawing from the experiential learning literature, we demonstrate that there are sound pedagogical reasons for incorporating field visits like the ASV into the curriculum as stand-alone components. Thus, the original contribution of this article is to place the ASV within the experiential learning literature such that the theoretical, practical and conceptual benefits for students are understood. Its significance is that this article offers a set of practices from an experiential learning perspective that can be used for deepening the levels of comprehension of political issues in Africa for international studies students

Efficacy of live B1 or Ulster 2C Newcastle disease vaccines simultaneously vaccinated with inactivated oil adjuvant vaccine for protection of Newcastle disease virus in broiler chickens

Two hundred, one-day-old broiler chicks were divided into groups 1, 2 and 3 containing 60, 70 and 70 chicks, respectively. The groups were divided into subgroups of 10 chicks that were vaccinated according to the following scheme: group 1 unvaccinated control, group 2 vaccinated subcutaneously at 1 day old with inactivated oil adjuvant vaccine (IOAV) in combination with live B1 vaccine. Group 3 was vaccinated in the same mode as group 2 with IOAV and live Ulster 2C vaccine. All birds were challenged when they were 28 days old. Mortality rate, body weight gain and feed conversion ratio (FCR) were monitored before and after challenge. All the chickens in group 1 died, indicating that there was no disease resistance of this unvaccinated control group of chickens. Conversely, the monitored disease resistance of chickens in groups 2 and 3 was 68.57% ± 18.64 and 88.57% ± 9.00, respectively (P < 0.05). The morbidity of chickens in groups 2 and 3 was 37.89% ± 14.36 and 14.76% ± 12.40, respectively (P < 0.05). The body weight gain, feed intake and FCR of group 3 were significantly better than those of group 2 (P < 0.05) during 1–42 days old. The simultaneous vaccination with B1 or Ulster 2C and IOAV of 1-day-old chicks gave some protection of 28-day-old broilers without a booster vaccination

Photo-designed terahertz devices

Technologies are being developed to manipulate electromagnetic waves using artificially structured materials such as photonic crystals and metamaterials, with the goal of creating primary optical devices. For example, artificial metallic periodic structures show potential for the construction of devices operating in the terahertz frequency regime. Here we demonstrate the fabrication of photo-designed terahertz devices that enable the real-time, wide-range frequency modulation of terahertz electromagnetic waves. These devices are comprised of a photo-induced, planar periodic-conductive structure formed by the irradiation of a silicon surface using a spatially modulated, femtosecond optical pulsed laser. We also show that the modulation frequency can be tuned by the structural periodicity, but is hardly affected by the excitation power of the optical pump pulse. We expect that our findings will pave the way for the construction of all-optical compact operating devices, such as optical integrated circuits, thereby eliminating the need for materials fabrication processes

Osmoregulation of the Australian freshwater crocodile, Crocodylus johnstoni, in fresh and saline waters

An unusual saltwater population of the "freshwater" crocodilian, Crocodylus johnstoni, was studied in the estuary of the Limmen Bight River in Australia's Northern Territory and compared with populations in permanently freshwater habitats. Crocodiles in the river were found across a large salinity gradient, from fresh water to a salinity of 24 mg.ml-1, more than twice the body fluid concentration. Plasma osmolarity, concentrations of plasma Na+, Cl-, and K+, and exchangeable Na+ pools were all remarkably constant across the salinity spectrum and were not substantially higher or more variable than those in crocodiles from permanently freshwater habitats. Body fluid volumes did not vary; condition factor and hydration status of crocodiles were not correlated with salinity and were not different from those of crocodiles from permanently fresh water. C. johnstoni clearly has considerable powers of osmoregulation in waters of low to medium salinity. Whether this osmoregulatory competence, extends to continuously hyperosmotic environments is not known, but distributional data suggest that C. johnstoni in hyperosmotic conditions may require periodic access to hypoosmotic water. The study demonstrates a physiological capacity for colonisation of at least some estuarine waters by this normally stenohaline freshwater crocodilian

Roles of the creatine kinase system and myoglobin in maintaining energetic state in the working heart

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The heart is capable of maintaining contractile function despite a transient decrease in blood flow and increase in cardiac ATP demand during systole. This study analyzes a previously developed model of cardiac energetics and oxygen transport to understand the roles of the creatine kinase system and myoglobin in maintaining the ATP hydrolysis potential during beat-to-beat transient changes in blood flow and ATP hydrolysis rate.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The theoretical investigation demonstrates that elimination of myoglobin only slightly increases the predicted range of oscillation of cardiac oxygenation level during beat-to-beat transients in blood flow and ATP utilization. In silico elimination of myoglobin has almost no impact on the cytoplasmic ATP hydrolysis potential (Δ<it>G</it>_ATPase). In contrast, disabling the creatine kinase system results in considerable oscillations of cytoplasmic ADP and ATP levels and seriously deteriorates the stability of Δ<it>G</it>_ATPasein the beating heart.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The CK system stabilizes Δ<it>G</it>_ATPaseby both buffering ATP and ADP concentrations and enhancing the feedback signal of inorganic phosphate in regulating mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation.</p

Conformational landscapes of DNA polymerase I and mutator derivatives establish fidelity checkpoints for nucleotide insertion

The fidelity of DNA polymerases depends on conformational changes that promote the rejection of incorrect nucleotides before phosphoryl transfer. Here, we combine single-molecule FRET with the use of DNA polymerase I and various fidelity mutants to highlight mechanisms by which active-site side chains influence the conformational transitions and free-energy landscape that underlie fidelity decisions in DNA synthesis. Ternary complexes of high fidelity derivatives with complementary dNTPs adopt mainly a fully closed conformation, whereas a conformation with a FRET value between those of open and closed is sparsely populated. This intermediate-FRET state, which we attribute to a partially closed conformation, is also predominant in ternary complexes with incorrect nucleotides and, strikingly, in most ternary complexes of low-fidelity derivatives for both correct and incorrect nucleotides. The mutator phenotype of the low-fidelity derivatives correlates well with reduced affinity for complementary dNTPs and highlights the partially closed conformation as a primary checkpoint for nucleotide selection

In-training assessment using direct observation of single-patient encounters: a literature review

We reviewed the literature on instruments for work-based assessment in single clinical encounters, such as the mini-clinical evaluation exercise (mini-CEX), and examined differences between these instruments in characteristics and feasibility, reliability, validity and educational effect. A PubMed search of the literature published before 8 January 2009 yielded 39 articles dealing with 18 different assessment instruments. One researcher extracted data on the characteristics of the instruments and two researchers extracted data on feasibility, reliability, validity and educational effect. Instruments are predominantly formative. Feasibility is generally deemed good and assessor training occurs sparsely but is considered crucial for successful implementation. Acceptable reliability can be achieved with 10 encounters. The validity of many instruments is not investigated, but the validity of the mini-CEX and the ‘clinical evaluation exercise’ is supported by strong and significant correlations with other valid assessment instruments. The evidence from the few studies on educational effects is not very convincing. The reports on clinical assessment instruments for single work-based encounters are generally positive, but supporting evidence is sparse. Feasibility of instruments seems to be good and reliability requires a minimum of 10 encounters, but no clear conclusions emerge on other aspects. Studies on assessor and learner training and studies examining effects beyond ‘happiness data’ are badly needed