Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment’s change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of inter annual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to inter annual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., non-resilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long‐term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5‐year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Comparing alternative design options for chronic disease prevention interventions

Background While the randomized clinical trial is considered to provide the highest level of evidence in clinical medicine, its superiority to other study designs in the context of prevention studies is debated. The purpose of this review was (i) to gather evidence about challenges facing both randomized controlled trials and observational designs for the conduct of population-based chronic disease prevention interventions and (ii) to consider the suitability of recently proposed hybrid designs for population-based prevention intervention studies. Methods Rapid review methods were employed for this study. Articles published within 2007-2012, were included if they: (i) discussed challenges or benefits related to any intervention study design, (ii) compared randomized controlled trials (RCT) and observational designs or (iii) introduced a new study design potentially applicable to population-based interventions. After initial screening, papers retained for inclusion were subjected to content analysis and synthesis. Results A total of 35 included articles were reviewed and used for synthesis. Both RCTs and observational studies are subject to multiple challenges, the main being external and internal validity for RCTs and observational designs, respectively. Four new hybrid designs identified. Conclusion Although any high quality design can produce high level of evidence, multiple challenges with prevention intervention RCTs or observational studies identified. New hybrid designs that carry benefits of randomized and observational methods may be the road ahead for to assess the effects of population-based interventions

Effectiveness of individual-focused interventions to prevent chronic disease

Background The burden of chronic disease is projected to assume crisis proportions in most parts of the world by the middle of the century, focusing attention on the need for preventive interventions. We identify and review published research on primary prevention individual-level interventions in current practice and describe and discuss the limitations of the current evidence. The report facilitates prioritizing a research agenda for potential interventions that might be investigated within cohort studies. Materials and methods This study is a rapid review. Computerized database searches (PubMed and EMBASE) were performed in October 2012 to identify articles on primary prevention interventions that are directed at the individual level. Potentially, relevant International Agency of Research on Cancer handbooks and monographs were also reviewed. The review includes articles reported in English on the efficacy or effectiveness of a preventive intervention in an adult population. It excludes articles on alcohol or tobacco smoking. Results Many chronic disease interventions directed at individuals report a protective effect in the short term and some evidence for the efficacy of chemoprevention in chronic disease prevention exists. Evidence these effects persist in the longer term is inconsistent. Conclusions There are currently only limited evidence-based preventions for most chronic diseases, for which a summary is available in Table A1 (see Appendix B). Most individual-level intervention research studies have been conducted using case-control designs and some small, randomized studies. There are fewer impediments to lifestyle modifications when compared to prevention using chemoprevention and vaccination or other methods of prevention of persistent infection

JonesJuliaCEOASChangingForestWater_TableS1.pdf

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment’s change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments.Keywords: Evapotranspiration, Forest, Climate change, Budyko curve, Resilience, Water yield, Elasticity, Catchments, PrecipitationKeywords: Evapotranspiration, Forest, Climate change, Budyko curve, Resilience, Water yield, Elasticity, Catchments, Precipitatio

JonesJuliaCEOASChangingForestWater.pdf

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment’s change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments.Keywords: Forest, Budyko curve, Elasticity, Precipitation, Climate change, Evapotranspiration, Catchments, Water yield, ResilienceKeywords: Forest, Budyko curve, Elasticity, Precipitation, Climate change, Evapotranspiration, Catchments, Water yield, Resilienc