UK hazards from a large Icelandic effusive eruption. Effusive Eruption Modelling Project final report

In response to the recent introduction of large, long-lasting gas-rich volcanic eruptions to the UK National Risk Register (risk H55) a modelling project has been conducted to improve our understanding of potential hazards to the UK from such an eruption on Iceland. A precautionary “reasonable worst case” eruption scenario based on the 1783-1784 CE Laki eruption has been determined using the results of an expert elicitation of scientists. This scenario has been simulated 80 times using two different atmospheric chemistry and transport models (NAME and EMEP4UK) over 10 years of meteorology (2003-2012). The results provide information on the range of concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO2), sulphate aerosol (SO4) and some halogen species that might be experienced in the UK during such an eruption and the likelihood of key thresholds being exceeded and the duration of their exceedance. Data for the surface and for a range of key flight altitudes have been produced. These are evaluated against the threshold bandings of the UK’s Air Quality Index (AQI). The impact on UK ecosystems has also been considered. The data are intended to be used by UK Government Departments for further research into the impacts on the aviation, health, environmental and agricultural sectors. The results show that the prevailing meteorological conditions are the key influence on which parts of the North Atlantic and European region are affected at any time. The results demonstrate that the UK is unlikely to be affected by week after week of significantly elevated concentrations; rather there will a number of short (hours to days) pollution episodes where concentrations at the surface would be elevated bove Moderate and High air quality index levels. This pattern reflects the generally changeable nature of the weather in the UK. At the surface, consecutive exceedance durations are longer for SO4 than SO2, and can be particularly lengthy (1-2 weeks) in the Low air quality index levels, which may be of relevance to health impact assessments. The indications of potential peak concentrations and their corresponding AQI exceedance probabilities within this report serve to inform national, high-level generic risk planning. For more specific response planning, a much larger modelling study with multiple eruption scenarios and a greater number of meteorological realisations would be needed

Natural capital metrics. Phase 1 final report: central components

This is a condensed version of the Natural Capital Metrics (NCMet) project Phase 1 report. It focuses on three key components: i) the conceptual framework, ii) development of six example evidence-chains and their associated data and model inventories, and iii) early development work towards a Natural Capital Portal to provide access to relevant data, models and maps of natural capital. All outputs are preliminary and are undergoing considerable refinement in the second phase of the project. Phase 2 outputs will be available in 2018

Sniffer ER26. Model validation using monitored data from Scottish poultry farms

The report outlines the bespoke monitoring conducted for the validation of the SCAIL tool in order to better assess that the tool provides realistic yet conservative results. Two farm sites were selected for the validation monitoring. The study collected data for odour, ammonia and airborne particulate data as well as recording on-site meteorological information. In conclusion the SCAIL-Agriculture model was found to broadly meet recognised acceptability criteria for the prediction of ammonia, PM10 and odour concentration arising from farm buildings. There are however a number of areas where further research could clearly improve the assessment of agricultural sources

Modelling and mapping of exceedance of critical loads and critical levels for acidification and eutrophication in the UK 2013-2016. Final report

This report covers the work of the original contract (2013-15) and the following one-year extension (2015-16). The overall purpose of this project was to maintain, and where appropriate update, the UK critical loads database, and to provide estimates of critical load and critical level exceedance based on current pollutant deposition or concentrations, and scenarios for the future. The exceedance results were used to inform policy makers on the areas of sensitive habitats and designated sites potentially at risk from air pollution and were updated annually to provide a UK indicator of the impacts of air pollution on ecosystems. The project also supported the UK National Focal Centre (NFC) for critical loads modelling and mapping. The 1-year extension to this contract additionally included the biodiversity modelling required to enable the UK NFC to begin work in preparation for responding to the 2015-17 “Call for Data” under the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP)

Evidence review of the potential wider impacts of climate change mitigation options: agriculture, forestry, land use and waste sectors

A report prepared for Scottish Government. Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is a central policy objective in Scotland. The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 sets an interim 42% reduction target for 2020 and an 80% target for 2050 across all sectors of society (1990 baseline). As a priority policy area, it has become vital to better understand the co-benefits and adverse impacts arising from mitigation actions on our environment, economy and society. Integrated assessment is key in prioritising environmental actions, reducing adverse impacts and enhancing positive co-effects. This report aims to summarise evidence on the wider impacts (WI) of GHG mitigation options (MO) in the Agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry sectors (ALULUCF) and those related waste management. The key findings of the review, are a summary of the wider impacts and an overview of the challenges in quantifying and monetising these impacts

Valuing Nature through multiple lenses: highlights from the Valuing Nature PCT Programme (2014–2021)

This is the final report for the Valuing Nature Programme. The aim of the report is less about sharing its achievements, but about discussing what worked and what did not work as well, in the hope that recently initiated and future programmes may benefit from the lessons learned

Assessing the risks of air pollution impacts to the condition of Areas/Sites of Special Scientific Interest in the UK

This report considers a number of options for assessing the risks of airborne pollutants to terrestrial designated sites