Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment

The Paris Agreement is a milestone in international climate policy as it establishes a global mitigation framework towards 2030 and sets the ground for a potential 1.5 °C climate stabilization. To provide useful insights for the 2018 UNFCCC Talanoa facilitative dialogue, we use eight state-of-the-art climate-energy-economy models to assess the effectiveness of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in meeting high probability 1.5 and 2 °C stabilization goals. We estimate that the implementation of conditional INDCs in 2030 leaves an emissions gap from least cost 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways for year 2030 equal to 15.6 (9.0–20.3) and 24.6 (18.5–29.0) GtCO2eq respectively. The immediate transition to a more efficient and low-carbon energy system is key to achieving the Paris goals. The decarbonization of the power supply sector delivers half of total CO2 emission reductions in all scenarios, primarily through high penetration of renewables and energy efficiency improvements. In combination with an increased electrification of final energy demand, low-carbon power supply is the main short-term abatement option. We find that the global macroeconomic cost of mitigation efforts does not reduce the 2020–2030 annual GDP growth rates in any model more than 0.1 percentage points in the INDC or 0.3 and 0.5 in the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios respectively even without accounting for potential co-benefits and avoided climate damages. Accordingly, the median GDP reductions across all models in 2030 are 0.4%, 1.2% and 3.3% of reference GDP for each respective scenario. Costs go up with increasing mitigation efforts but a fragmented action, as implied by the INDCs, results in higher costs per unit of abated emissions. On a regional level, the cost distribution is different across scenarios while fossil fuel exporters see the highest GDP reductions in all INDC, 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios

The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and a middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 500-1100 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: 1) the policy assumptions, 2) the socio-economic narrative, and 3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectorial extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6)

Imaging of nuclear factor κB activation induced by ionizing radiation in human embryonic kidney (HEK) cells

Ionizing radiation modulates several signaling pathways resulting in transcription factor activation. Nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) is one of the most important transcription factors that respond to changes in the environment of a mammalian cell. NF-κB plays a key role not only in inflammation and immune regulation but also in cellular radiation response. In response to DNA damage, NF-κB might inhibit apoptosis and promote carcinogenesis. Our previous studies showed that ionizing radiation is very effective in inducing biological damages. Therefore, it is important to understand the radiation-induced NF-κB signaling cascade. The current study aims to improve existing mammalian cell-based reporter assays for NF-κB activation by the use of DD-tdTomato which is a destabilized variant of red fluorescent protein tdTomato. It is demonstrated that exposure of recombinant human embryonic kidney cells (HEK/293 transfected with a reporter constructs containing NF-κB binding sites in its promoter) to ionizing radiation induces NF-κB-dependent DD-tdTomato expression. Using this reporter assays, NF-κB signaling in mammalian cells was monitored by flow cytometry and fluorescence microscopy. Activation of NF-κB by the canonical pathway was found to be quicker than by the genotoxin- and stress-induced pathway. X-rays activate NF-κB in HEK cells in a dose-dependent manner, and the extent of NF-κB activation is higher as compared to camptothecin

An in-vitro approach for water quality determination: activation of NF-κB as marker for cancer-related stress responses induced by anthropogenic pollutants of drinking water

Epidemiological studies show that there is a link between urban water pollution and increase in human morbidity and mortality. With the increase in number of new substances arising from the chemical, pharmaceutical, and agricultural industries, there is an urgent need to develop biological test systems for fast evaluation of potential risks to humans and the environmental ecosystems. Here, a combined cellular reporter assay based on the cellular survival and the stress-induced activation of the survival-promoting factor nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) and its use for the detection of cytotoxicity and cancer-related stress responses is presented. A total of 14 chemicals that may be found in trace-amounts in ground water levels are applied and tested with the presented assay. The project is embedded within the joint research project TOX-BOX which aims to develop a harmonized testing strategy for risk management of anthropogenic trace substances in potable water. The assay identified carbendazim as a NF-κB-activating agent in mammalian cells