Fluctuations and oscillations in a simple epidemic model

We show that the simplest stochastic epidemiological models with spatial correlations exhibit two types of oscillatory behaviour in the endemic phase. In a large parameter range, the oscillations are due to resonant amplification of stochastic fluctuations, a general mechanism first reported for predator-prey dynamics. In a narrow range of parameters that includes many infectious diseases which confer long lasting immunity the oscillations persist for infinite populations. This effect is apparent in simulations of the stochastic process in systems of variable size, and can be understood from the phase diagram of the deterministic pair approximation equations. The two mechanisms combined play a central role in explaining the ubiquity of oscillatory behaviour in real data and in simulation results of epidemic and other related models.Comment: acknowledgments added; a typo in the discussion that follows Eq. (3) is corrected

Fast tuning of superconducting microwave cavities

Photons are fundamental excitations of the electromagnetic field and can be captured in cavities. For a given cavity with a certain size, the fundamental mode has a fixed frequency {\it f} which gives the photons a specific "color". The cavity also has a typical lifetime $\tau$, which results in a finite linewidth $\delta${\it f}. If the size of the cavity is changed fast compared to $\tau$, and so that the frequency change $\Delta${\it f} $\gg \delta${\it f}, then it is possible to change the "color" of the captured photons. Here we demonstrate superconducting microwave cavities, with tunable effective lengths. The tuning is obtained by varying a Josephson inductance at one end of the cavity. We show data on four different samples and demonstrate tuning by several hundred linewidths in a time $\Delta t \ll \tau$. Working in the few photon limit, we show that photons stored in the cavity at one frequency will leak out from the cavity with the new frequency after the detuning. The characteristics of the measured devices make them suitable for different applications such as dynamic coupling of qubits and parametric amplification.Comment: 2nd International Workshop on Solid-State Quantum Computing, June 2008, Taipei, Taiwa

Are pinholes the cause of excess current in superconducting tunnel junctions? A study of Andreev current in highly resistive junctions

In highly resistive superconducting tunnel junctions, excess subgap current is usually observed and is often attributed to microscopic "pinholes" in the tunnel barrier. We have studied the subgap current in superconductor-insulator-superconductor (SIS) and superconductor-insulator-normal-metal (SIN) junctions. In Al/AlOx/Al junctions, we observed a decrease of 2 orders of magnitude in the current upon the transition from the SIS to the SIN regime, where it then matched theory. In Al/AlOx/Cu junctions, we also observed generic features of coherent diffusive Andreev transport in a junction with a homogenous barrier. We use the quasiclassical Keldysh-Green function theory to quantify single- and two-particle tunneling and find good agreement over 2 orders of magnitude in transparency. We argue that our observations rule out pinholes as the origin of the excess current.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Photoemission induced gating of topological insulator

The recently discovered topological insulators exhibit topologically protected metallic surface states which are interesting from the fundamental point of view and could be useful for various applications if an appropriate electronic gating can be realized. Our photoemission study of Cu intercalated Bi2Se3 shows that the surface states occupancy in this material can be tuned by changing the photon energy and understood as a photoemission induced gating effect. Our finding provides an effective tool to investigate the new physics coming from the topological surface states and suggests the intercalation as a recipe for synthesis of the material suitable for electronic applications.Comment: + resistivity data and some discussio

A "critical" climatic evaluation of last interglacial (MIS 5e) records from the Norwegian Sea

Sediment cores from the Norwegian Sea were studied to evaluate interglacial climate conditions of the marine isotope stage 5e (MIS 5e). Using planktic forminiferal assemblages as the core method, a detailed picture of the evolution of surface water conditions was derived. According to our age model, a step-like deglaciation of the Saalian ice sheets is noted between ca. 135 and 124.5 Kya, but the deglaciation shows little response with regard to surface ocean warming. From then on, the rapidly increasing abundance of subpolar forminifers, concomitant with decreasing iceberg indicators, provides evidence for the development of interglacial conditions sensu stricto (5e-ss), a period that lasted for about 9 Ky. As interpreted from the foraminiferal records, and supported by the other proxies, this interval of 5e-ss was in two parts: showing an early warm phase, but with a fresher, i.e., lower salinity, water mass, and a subsequent cooling phase that lasted until ca. 118.5 Kya. After this time, the climatic optimum with the most intense advection of Atlantic surface water masses occurred until ca. 116 Kya. A rapid transition with two notable climatic perturbations is observed subsequently during the glacial inception. Overall, the peak warmth of the last interglacial period occurred relatively late after deglaciation, and at no time did it reach the high warmth level of the early Holocene. This finding must be considered when using the last interglacial situation as an analogue model for enhanced meridional transfer of ocean heat to the Arctic, with the prospect of a future warmer climate

An Antibiotic Protocol To Minimize Emergence Of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis

The final publication is available at Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2013.12.039 © 2014. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/A within-host model of the spread of tuberculosis is proposed here where the emergence of drug resistance and bacterial dormancy are simultaneously combined. We consider both sensitive and resistant strains of tuberculosis pathogens as well as a dormant state of these bacteria. The dynamics of the within-host system is modeled by a set of coupled differential equations which are numerically solved to find a relation between the within-host bacterial populations and the host health states. The values of the parameters were taken from the current literature when available; a sensitivity analysis was performed for the others. Antibiotic treatment for standard, intermittent and oscillating intermittent protocols is analyzed for different conditions. Our results suggest that the oscillating protocol is the most effective one, that would imply a lower treatment cost.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR)Brazilian agency CNPq [305738/2010-0, 127151/2012-5]FAPERJCAPE

Shelf‐basin exchange times of Arctic surface waters estimated from \u3csup\u3e228\u3c/sup\u3eTH/\u3csup\u3e228\u3c/sup\u3eRa disequilibrium

The transpolar drift is strongly enriched in 228Ra accumulated on the wide Arctic shelves with subsequent rapid offshore transport. We present new data of Polarstern expeditions to the central Arctic and to the Kara and Laptev seas. Because 226Ra activities in Pacific waters are 30% higher than in Atlantic waters, we correct 226Ra for the Pacific admixture when normalizing 228Ra with 226Ra. The use of 228Ra decay as age marker critically depends on the constancy in space and time of the source activity, a condition that has not yet adequately been tested. While 228Ra decays during transit over the central basin, ingrowth of 228Th could provide an alternative age marker. The high 228Th/228Ra activity ratio (AR = 0.8–1.0) in the central basins is incompatible with a mixing model based on horizontal eddy diffusion. An advective model predicts that 228Th grows to an equilibrium AR, the value of which depends on the scavenging regime. The low AR over the Lomonosov Ridge (AR = 0.5) can be due to either rapid transport (minimum age without scavenging 1.1 year) or enhanced scavenging. Suspended particulate matter load (derived from beam transmission and particulate 234Th) and total 234Th depletion data show that scavenging, although extremely low in the central Arctic, is enhanced over the Lomonosov Ridge, making an age of 3 years more likely. The combined data of 228Ra decay and 228Th ingrowth confirm the existence of a recirculating gyre in the surface water of the eastern Eurasian Basin with a river water residence time of at least 3 year

Rapid Emergence of Free-Riding Behavior in New Pediatric Immunization Programs

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models have formalized how free-rider effects can threaten the stability of high vaccine coverage levels under established voluntary vaccination programs. However, little research has addressed the question of when free-riding begins to develop when a new vaccine is first introduced in a population. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we combine a game theoretical model of vaccinating behavior with an age-structured compartmental model to analyze rational vaccinating behavior in the first years of a universal immunization program, where a new vaccine is free to all children of a specified age. The model captures how successive birth cohorts face different epidemiological landscapes that have been shaped by the vaccinating decisions of previous birth cohorts, resulting in a strategic interaction between individuals in different birth cohorts. The model predicts a Nash equilibrium coverage level of for the first few birth cohorts under the new program. However, free-riding behavior emerges very quickly, with the Nash equilibrium vaccine coverage dropping significantly within 2-5 years after program initiation. Subsequently, a rich set of coupled dynamics between infection prevalence and vaccinating behaviors is possible, ranging from relatively stable (but reduced) coverage in later birth cohorts to wide fluctuations in vaccine coverage from one birth cohort to the next. Individual tolerance for vaccine risk also starts out at relatively high levels before dropping significantly within a few years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that even relatively new immunization programs can be vulnerable to drops in vaccine coverage caused by vaccine scares and exacerbated by herd immunity effects, necessitating vigilance from the start

δ′\delta'-Function Perturbations and Neumann Boundary-Conditions by Path Integration

$\delta'$-function perturbations and Neumann boundary conditions are incorporated into the path integral formalism. The starting point is the consideration of the path integral representation for the one dimensional Dirac particle together with a relativistic point interaction. The non-relativistic limit yields either a usual $\delta$-function or a $\delta'$-function perturbation; making their strengths infinitely repulsive one obtains Dirichlet, respectively Neumann boundary conditions in the path integral.Comment: nine pages, plain Tex with AmSTeX macro-packag

Erratic Flu Vaccination Emerges from Short-Sighted Behavior in Contact Networks

The effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination programs depends on individual-level compliance. Perceptions about risks associated with infection and vaccination can strongly influence vaccination decisions and thus the ultimate course of an epidemic. Here we investigate the interplay between contact patterns, influenza-related behavior, and disease dynamics by incorporating game theory into network models. When individuals make decisions based on past epidemics, we find that individuals with many contacts vaccinate, whereas individuals with few contacts do not. However, the threshold number of contacts above which to vaccinate is highly dependent on the overall network structure of the population and has the potential to oscillate more wildly than has been observed empirically. When we increase the number of prior seasons that individuals recall when making vaccination decisions, behavior and thus disease dynamics become less variable. For some networks, we also find that higher flu transmission rates may, counterintuitively, lead to lower (vaccine-mediated) disease prevalence. Our work demonstrates that rich and complex dynamics can result from the interaction between infectious diseases, human contact patterns, and behavior