Will They Stay or Will They Go? An Examination of South Africa’s International Invest Arbitration Policy

In 2018, South Africa’s much debated Protection of Investment Act, 2015 went into effect. Designed to replace the state’s bilateral investment treaties, the Act signified a radical shift in South Africa’s attitude towards international investment policy. South Africa’s decision to terminate its bilateral investment treaties is part of a larger, ongoing discussion surrounding investor-state dispute resolution reform. This Note seeks to examine South Africa’s Protection of Investment Act, 2015, its proposal for investor-state dispute settlement reform to Working Group III, and its comments during investor-state dispute settlement reform meetings, through the lens of Albert Hirschman’s Exit, Voice, and Loyalty theory. This Note argues that, contrary to both popular belief and statements made by South Africa, South Africa’s apparent exit from the international investment regime is part of a long-term policy strategy to promote advantageous investor-state dispute settlement reform

The TLR2/6 ligand PAM2CSK4 is a Th2 polarizing adjuvant in Leishmania major and Brugia malayi murine vaccine models.

Toll-like receptors (TLRs) play an important role in the innate and adaptive immune responses to pathogens, and are the target of new vaccine adjuvants. TLR2 plays a role in parasite recognition and activation of immune responses during cutaneous leishmaniasis infection, suggesting that TLR2 could be targeted by adjuvants for use in Leishmania vaccines. We therefore explored using Pam2CSK4 (Pam2) and Pam3CSK4 (Pam3) lipopeptide adjuvants, which activate TLR2/6 and TLR2/1 heterodimers respectively, in vaccine models for parasitic infections.The use of lipopeptide adjuvants was explored using two vaccine models. For cutaneous leishmaniasis, the lipopeptide adjuvants Pam2 and Pam3 were compared to that of the Th1-driving double-stranded DNA TLR9 agonist CpG for their ability to improve the efficacy of the autoclaved Leishmania major (ALM) vaccine to protect against L. major infection. The ability of Pam2 to enhance the efficacy of a soluble Brugia malayi microfilariae extract (BmMfE) vaccine to protect against filarial infection was also assessed in a peritoneal infection model of B. malayi filariasis. Parasite antigen-specific cellular and humoral immune responses were assessed post-challenge.The use of lipopeptides in ALM-containing vaccines did not provide any protection upon infection with L. major, and Pam2 exacerbated the disease severity in vaccinated mice post-challenge. Pam2, and to a lesser extent Pam3, were able to elevate antigen-specific immune responses post-challenge in this model, but these responses displayed a skewed Th2 phenotype as characterised by elevated levels of IgG1. In the B. malayi vaccine model, the use of Pam2 as an adjuvant with BmMfE induced significant protective immunity to the same level as inclusion of an Alum adjuvant. Here, both Pam2 and Alum were found to enhance antigen-specific antibody production post-challenge, and Pam2 significantly elevated levels of antigen-specific IL-4, IL-5 and IL-13 produced by splenocytes.These data indicate that TLR2/6-targeting ligands could be considered as adjuvants for vaccines that require robust Th2 and/or antibody-dependent immunity

Domestic abuse orders: risk, vulnerability and training

The use of Emergency Barring Orders (EBO) in the form of Domestic Violence Protection Notices and Orders (DVPN-O) in reported Domestic Abuse (DA) cases is a relatively new development in the UK; the effectiveness of these orders has been challenged. A goal of this study is to examine the factors influencing their issue. Freedom of Information requests were used alongside a survey tool. Practitioners (n=76: mainly police practitioners) were asked about approaches to EBO application, risk, and training around DA. The findings indicate that applications are impacted largely by DASH Risk grading, typically resulting in high-risk cases receiving the most attention. Criticisms suggesting that DVPN-Os are of limited use receive some support from this study; however, as their use is restricted to these higher risk cases the full effect of the orders may be limited. The most important factors in decision making are the level of: physical violence; repeated victimization; and the victims support for a DVPN-O. Police intelligence and the presence of children also have an effect on risk ratings. Less importance was given to lower risk graded cases, wider intelligence from family members, and information from social networks. Findings also indicate that Police training is largely limited to ‘on the job’ experience, e-learning and e-mail bulletins. Respondents proposed that training could be enhanced through victim stories, cross-discipline approaches and wider knowledge beyond isolated specialisms. A number of recommendations are made in line with: (1) structuring professional judgement; (2) using victim accounts in Police training; (3) movement towards an evidence-led approach

The Effects of Guided Reading in a Primary Montessori Classroom

The purpose of this action research was to decide if conducting guided reading instruction three times a week in a primary Montessori classroom would make an impact on reading levels among kindergarten students. The research took place over six weeks in a public Montessori school. The school is a Title One school located in a rural area of South Carolina. The population who participated in the study were 26 kindergarten students aged five to six from three different classrooms. Our intervention included using a variety of reading strategies such as pointing to each word, using picture clues, sounding out words, and recognizing sight words. Each session lasted around 45 minutes to an hour. Some positive effects of our study were an increase in reading confidence, usage of reading strategies, and overall reading achievement. To expand on our research, we would experiment with implementing this practice at another time during the school day and use additional guided reading techniques

Uncertainty Intervals for Prediction Errors in Time Series Forecasting

Inference for prediction errors is critical in time series forecasting pipelines. However, providing statistically meaningful uncertainty intervals for prediction errors remains relatively under-explored. Practitioners often resort to forward cross-validation (FCV) for obtaining point estimators and constructing confidence intervals based on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). The naive version assumes independence, a condition that is usually invalid due to time correlation. These approaches lack statistical interpretations and theoretical justifications even under stationarity. This paper systematically investigates uncertainty intervals for prediction errors in time series forecasting. We first distinguish two key inferential targets: the stochastic test error over near future data points, and the expected test error as the expectation of the former. The stochastic test error is often more relevant in applications needing to quantify uncertainty over individual time series instances. To construct prediction intervals for the stochastic test error, we propose the quantile-based forward cross-validation (QFCV) method. Under an ergodicity assumption, QFCV intervals have asymptotically valid coverage and are shorter than marginal empirical quantiles. In addition, we also illustrate why naive CLT-based FCV intervals fail to provide valid uncertainty intervals, even with certain corrections. For non-stationary time series, we further provide rolling intervals by combining QFCV with adaptive conformal prediction to give time-average coverage guarantees. Overall, we advocate the use of QFCV procedures and demonstrate their coverage and efficiency through simulations and real data examples.Comment: 35 pages, 17 figure

A snapshot of the student experience: Exploring student satisfaction through the use of photographic-elicitation

Student satisfaction is both an important and yet controversial issue within the higher education sector, which is typically measured through policy-driven metrics such as the National Student Survey. However, less is understood about the qualities of a satisfying student experience ‘as lived’ from the perspective of the student, thus questioning the adequacy of such measures. In response to this, the current study used student-driven photographic elicitation as a means of more adequately capturing the holistic student experience. This entailed nine final-year undergraduate psychology students who each gathered a series of photos, which formed the basis for discussion in an interview. Thematic analysis of the narratives of the interview discussions revealed several main themes surrounding their experiences. These were: ‘Learning Environment’, ‘Work–Life Balance’ and ‘Wider University Community’. Findings are discussed with reference to the implications of student satisfaction, and national metrics used for measuring it, for institutional policies of recruitment and retention

Science Takes Flight: Detection of Black Leg on Turnip Gray Mold on Hemp

Disease detection through traditional techniques such as scouting fields on foot, molecular assays, or morphological identification of plant pathogens is time consuming and costly. Disease diagnosis in the field can be extremely subjective, and largely depends on the experience and knowledge of pathogen identification and disease quantification. This thesis provides an evaluation of remote sensing for assessing disease in agricultural field settings via an unmanned aerial vehicle and machine learning. Case studies are presented on two different fungal diseases important in western Oregon crop production: black leg on turnip (incited by Leptosphaeria spp.) and gray mold on hemp (caused by Botrytis spp.). Both case studies utilized a support vector machine model to classify pixels of digital images collected with a multispectral Micasense RedEdge-M optical sensor. Turnip leaves were imaged at 1.5 m in situ while hemp plant images were collected by an unmanned aerial vehicle with flights at 10 m ex situ. Detection of pixels exemplifying black leg leaf spot symptoms on turnip leaves had an overall accuracy of 97.0% with a model sensitivity of 0.48. The support vector machine model utilized in gray mold detection on hemp incorporated a novel vegetation index, a modified green-red vegetation index along with the triangular greenness index, to identify pixels of diseased hemp inflorescences extracted from background soil and vegetation. The model had an overall accuracy of 95.8% when identifying a hemp inflorescence as diseased or non-diseased. False negatives were found to be high with a sensitivity of 0.70 in the hemp model. Additionally, gray mold disease incidence determined using the support vector machine model was compared with disease assessments collected by scouting on foot and was found to have similar treatment rankings, although the differences in the relative percentages between the two methods were found to be large. The findings of this study provide the foundation for further development of remote sensing techniques for black leg disease assessments in Brassica crops and potential deployment of remote sensing strategies for measuring gray mold in hemp fields

“I’ve never felt such absolute devastating loss”: A photo elicitation exploration of men’s post-separation experiences of coping after intimate partner violence

Current research and statistics support that there are a significant number of male victims of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), yet less is known about how men cope with, and indeed move on from, these experiences post-separation. The aim of the current study is to discuss the findings from a photo elicitation study exploring men’s post-separation experiences of coping after IPV experiences; photo-elicitation as a method of interviewing is simply the use of photos within an interview setting (Harper, 2002), they are used as a stimulus to elicit richer accounts of the topic under study (Frith & Harcourt, 2007). We interviewed 16 men who brought photos that represented their experience for discussion. Interviews were analysed thematically, and several overarching themes were identified: a) Power, b) Post-separation Support, c) Systemic Injustice and Separation, d) Impact and Change. Men described the ways in which they engaged in mechanisms to help their “recovery” and help them to cope, but these efforts were often hampered by ongoing issues of power with their ex-partners, gender stereotyped treatment, a lack of support from systems they approached for help, and separation from their children. Findings are discussed in relation to current legislation and practice, with recommendations made around the need for tailored support and intervention to support men and their children