Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates

Extreme wind is the main driver of loss in North-West Europe, with flooding being the second-highest driver. These hazards are currently modelled independently, and it is unclear what the contribution of their co-occurrence is to loss. They are often associated with extra-tropical cyclones, with studies focusing on co-occurrence of extreme meteorological variables. However, there has not been a systematic assessment of the meteorological drivers of the co-occurring \textit{impacts} of compound wind-flood events. This study quantifies this using an established storm severity index (SSI) and recently developed flood severity index (FSI), applied to the UKCP18 12km regional climate simulations, and a Great Britain (GB) focused hydrological model. The meteorological drivers are assessed using 30 weather types, which are designed to capture a broad spectrum of GB weather. Daily extreme compound events (exceeding 99th percentile of both SSI and FSI) are generally associated with cyclonic weather patterns, often from the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) and Northwesterly classifications. Extreme compound events happen in a larger variety of weather patterns in a future climate. The location of extreme precipitation events shifts southward towards regions of increased exposure. The risk of extreme compound events increases almost four-fold in the UKCP18 simulations (from 14 events in the historical period, to 55 events in the future period). It is also more likely for there to be multi-day compound events. At seasonal timescales years tend to be either flood-prone or wind-damage-prone. In a future climate there is a larger proportion of years experiencing extreme seasonal SSI and FSI totals. This could lead to increases in reinsurance losses if not factored into current modelling

Indicators of sustainable capacity building for health research: analysis of four African case studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite substantial investment in health capacity building in developing countries, evaluations of capacity building effectiveness are scarce. By analysing projects in Africa that had successfully built sustainable capacity, we aimed to identify evidence that could indicate that capacity building was likely to be sustainable.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Four projects were selected as case studies using pre-determined criteria, including the achievement of sustainable capacity. By mapping the capacity building activities in each case study onto a framework previously used for evaluating health research capacity in Ghana, we were able to identify activities that were common to all projects. We used these activities to derive indicators which could be used in other projects to monitor progress towards building sustainable research capacity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Indicators of sustainable capacity building increased in complexity as projects matured and included</p> <p>- early engagement of stakeholders; explicit plans for scale up; strategies for influencing policies; quality assessments (<it>awareness and experiential stages)</it></p> <p>- improved resources; institutionalisation of activities; innovation <it>(expansion stage)</it></p> <p>- funding for core activities secured; management and decision-making led by southern partners <it>(consolidation stage)</it>.</p> <p>Projects became sustainable after a median of 66 months. The main challenges to achieving sustainability were high turnover of staff and stakeholders, and difficulties in embedding new activities into existing systems, securing funding and influencing policy development.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our indicators of sustainable capacity building need to be tested prospectively in a variety of projects to assess their usefulness. For each project the evidence required to show that indicators have been achieved should evolve with the project and they should be determined prospectively in collaboration with stakeholders.</p

Towards building equitable health systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: lessons from case studies on operational research

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Published practical examples of how to bridge gaps between research, policy and practice in health systems research in Sub Saharan Africa are scarce. The aim of our study was to use a case study approach to analyse how and why different operational health research projects in Africa have contributed to health systems strengthening and promoted equity in health service provision.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using case studies we have collated and analysed practical examples of operational research projects on health in Sub-Saharan Africa which demonstrate how the links between research, policy and action can be strengthened to build effective and pro-poor health systems. To ensure rigour, we selected the case studies using pre-defined criteria, mapped their characteristics systematically using a case study development framework, and analysed the research impact process of each case study using the RAPID framework for research-policy links. This process enabled analysis of common themes, successes and weaknesses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>3 operational research projects met our case study criteria: HIV counselling and testing services in Kenya; provision of TB services in grocery stores in Malawi; and community diagnostics for anaemia, TB and malaria in Nigeria. <b>Political context and external influences: </b>in each case study context there was a need for new knowledge and approaches to meet policy requirements for equitable service delivery. Collaboration between researchers and key policy players began at the inception of operational research cycles. <b>Links</b>: critical in these operational research projects was the development of partnerships for capacity building to support new services or new players in service delivery. <b>Evidence: </b>evidence was used to promote policy dialogue around equity in different ways throughout the research cycle, such as in determining the topic area and in development of indicators.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Building equitable health systems means considering equity at different stages of the research cycle. Partnerships for capacity building promotes demand, delivery and uptake of research. Links with those who use and benefit from research, such as communities, service providers and policy makers, contribute to the timeliness and relevance of the research agenda and a receptive research-policy-practice interface. Our study highlights the need to advocate for a global research culture that values and funds these multiple levels of engagement.</p

Hsp90 orchestrates transcriptional regulation by Hsf1 and cell wall remodelling by MAPK signalling during thermal adaptation in a pathogenic yeast

Acknowledgments We thank Rebecca Shapiro for creating CaLC1819, CaLC1855 and CaLC1875, Gillian Milne for help with EM, Aaron Mitchell for generously providing the transposon insertion mutant library, Jesus Pla for generously providing the hog1 hst7 mutant, and Cathy Collins for technical assistance.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Correlation versus Causation? Pharmacovigilance of the Analgesic Flupirtine Exemplifies the Need for Refined Spontaneous ADR Reporting

Annually, adverse drug reactions result in more than 2,000,000 hospitalizations and rank among the top 10 causes of death in the United States. Consequently, there is a need to continuously monitor and to improve the safety assessment of marketed drugs. Nonetheless, pharmacovigilance practice frequently lacks causality assessment. Here, we report the case of flupirtine, a centrally acting non-opioid analgesic. We re-evaluated the plausibility and causality of 226 unselected, spontaneously reported hepatobiliary adverse drug reactions according to the adapted Bradford-Hill criteria, CIOMS score and WHO-UMC scales. Thorough re-evaluation showed that only about 20% of the reported cases were probable or likely for flupirtine treatment, suggesting an incidence of flupirtine-related liver injury of 1∶ 100,000 when estimated prescription data are considered, or 0.8 in 10,000 on the basis of all 226 reported adverse drug reactions. Neither daily or cumulative dose nor duration of treatment correlated with markers of liver injury. In the majority of cases (151/226), an average of 3 co-medications with drugs known for their liver liability was observed that may well be causative for adverse drug reactions, but were reported under a suspected flupirtine ADR. Our study highlights the need to improve the quality and standards of ADR reporting. This should be done with utmost care taking into account contributing factors such as concomitant medications including over-the-counter drugs, the medical history and current health conditions, in order to avoid unjustified flagging and drug warnings that may erroneously cause uncertainty among healthcare professionals and patients, and may eventually lead to unjustified safety signals of useful drugs with a reasonable risk to benefit ratio

Hospital deaths and adverse events in Brazil

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Adverse events are considered a major international problem related to the performance of health systems. Evaluating the occurrence of adverse events involves, as any other outcome measure, determining the extent to which the observed differences can be attributed to the patient's risk factors or to variations in the treatment process, and this in turn highlights the importance of measuring differences in the severity of the cases. The current study aims to evaluate the association between deaths and adverse events, adjusted according to patient risk factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study is based on a random sample of 1103 patient charts from hospitalizations in the year 2003 in 3 teaching hospitals in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The methodology involved a retrospective review of patient charts in two stages - screening phase and evaluation phase. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the relationship between hospital deaths and adverse events.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall mortality rate was 8.5%, while the rate related to the occurrence of an adverse event was 2.9% (32/1103) and that related to preventable adverse events was 2.3% (25/1103). Among the 94 deaths analyzed, 34% were related to cases involving adverse events, and 26.6% of deaths occurred in cases whose adverse events were considered preventable. The models tested showed good discriminatory capacity. The unadjusted odds ratio (OR 11.43) and the odds ratio adjusted for patient risk factors (OR 8.23) between death and preventable adverse event were high.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite discussions in the literature regarding the limitations of evaluating preventable adverse events based on peer review, the results presented here emphasize that adverse events are not only prevalent, but are associated with serious harm and even death. These results also highlight the importance of risk adjustment and multivariate models in the study of adverse events.</p

Blood culture status and mortality among patients with suspected community-acquired bacteremia: a population-based cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Comparison of mortality among patients with positive and negative blood cultures may indicate the contribution of bacteremia to mortality. This study (1) compared mortality among patients with community-acquired bacteremia with mortality among patients with negative blood cultures and (2) determined the effects of bacteremia type and comorbidity level on mortality among patients with positive blood cultures.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This cohort study included 29,273 adults with blood cultures performed within the first 2 days following hospital admission to an internal medical ward in northern Denmark during 1995-2006. We computed product limit estimates and used Cox regression to compute adjusted mortality rate ratios (MRRs) within 0-2, 3-7, 8-30, and 31-180 days following admission for bacteremia patients compared to culture-negative patients.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mortality in 2,648 bacteremic patients and 26,625 culture-negative patients was 4.8% vs. 2.0% 0-2 days after admission, 3.7% vs. 2.7% 3-7 days after admission, 5.6% vs. 5.1% 8-30 days after admission, and 9.7% vs. 8.7% 31-180 days after admission, corresponding to adjusted MRRs of 1.9 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6-2.2), 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9-1.5), 0.9 (95% CI: 0.8-1.1), and 1.0 (95% CI: 0.8-1.1), respectively. Mortality was higher among patients with Gram-positive (adjusted 0-2-day MRR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.6-2.2) and polymicrobial bacteremia (adjusted 0-2-day MRR 3.5, 95% CI: 2.2-5.5) than among patients with Gram-negative bacteremia (adjusted 0-2-day MRR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-2.0). After the first 2 days, patients with Gram-negative bacteremia had the same risk of dying as culture-negative patients (adjusted MRR 0.8, 95% CI: 0.5-1.1). Only patients with polymicrobial bacteremia had increased mortality within 31-180 days following admission (adjusted MRR 1.3, 95% CI: 0.8-2.1) compared to culture-negative patients. The association between blood culture status and mortality did not differ substantially by level of comorbidity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Community-acquired bacteremia was associated with an increased risk of mortality in the first week of medical ward admission. Higher mortality among patients with Gram-positive and polymicrobial bacteremia compared with patients with Gram-negative bacteremia and negative cultures emphasizes the prognostic importance of these infections.</p

Estimating Mass Properties of Dinosaurs Using Laser Imaging and 3D Computer Modelling

Body mass reconstructions of extinct vertebrates are most robust when complete to near-complete skeletons allow the reconstruction of either physical or digital models. Digital models are most efficient in terms of time and cost, and provide the facility to infinitely modify model properties non-destructively, such that sensitivity analyses can be conducted to quantify the effect of the many unknown parameters involved in reconstructions of extinct animals. In this study we use laser scanning (LiDAR) and computer modelling methods to create a range of 3D mass models of five specimens of non-avian dinosaur; two near-complete specimens of Tyrannosaurus rex, the most complete specimens of Acrocanthosaurus atokensis and Strutiomimum sedens, and a near-complete skeleton of a sub-adult Edmontosaurus annectens. LiDAR scanning allows a full mounted skeleton to be imaged resulting in a detailed 3D model in which each bone retains its spatial position and articulation. This provides a high resolution skeletal framework around which the body cavity and internal organs such as lungs and air sacs can be reconstructed. This has allowed calculation of body segment masses, centres of mass and moments or inertia for each animal. However, any soft tissue reconstruction of an extinct taxon inevitably represents a best estimate model with an unknown level of accuracy. We have therefore conducted an extensive sensitivity analysis in which the volumes of body segments and respiratory organs were varied in an attempt to constrain the likely maximum plausible range of mass parameters for each animal. Our results provide wide ranges in actual mass and inertial values, emphasizing the high level of uncertainty inevitable in such reconstructions. However, our sensitivity analysis consistently places the centre of mass well below and in front of hip joint in each animal, regardless of the chosen combination of body and respiratory structure volumes. These results emphasize that future biomechanical assessments of extinct taxa should be preceded by a detailed investigation of the plausible range of mass properties, in which sensitivity analyses are used to identify a suite of possible values to be tested as inputs in analytical models

Elevated serum matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) concentration predicts the presence of colorectal neoplasia in symptomatic patients

Early detection of polyps or colorectal carcinoma can reduce colorectal carcinoma-associated deaths. Previous studies have demonstrated raised serum levels of matrix metalloproteinase 9 (sMMP-9) in a range of cancers. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of sMMP-9 levels in identifying colorectal neoplasia. Consenting patients donated a blood sample and were assessed by proforma-led history and physical examination. Samples were analysed for sMMP-9 concentration (enzyme-linked immuno-sorbant assay) and compared to final diagnoses. Logistic regression modelling determined independent factors associated with neoplasia. A total of 365 patients were recruited of whom 300 were analysed, including 46 normal controls. A total of 27 significant adenomas and 63 malignancies were identified. The median sMMP-9 concentration was 443ng ml−1 (IQR: 219–782; mean: 546). Patients with neoplasia had significantly elevated sMMP-9 levels (P<0.001). Logistic regression modelling identified elevated log(sMMP-9) as the most significant predictor of neoplasia (χ2=38.33, P<0.001). Other significant factors were age, sex, smoking history, abdominal pain and weight loss. The model accurately predicted neoplasia in 77.3% of cases. Sensitivity and specificity were 77.9 and 77.1%. sMMP-9 estimation can accurately stratify patient to low- or high-risk cohorts. Serum sampling is a potential means of avoiding unnecessary colonoscopy and reducing patient anxiety, iatrogenic morbidity and mortality, and cost

Isolation and functional characterization of a Medicago sativa L. gene, MsLEA3-1

A full-length cDNA of 1,728 nt, called MsLEA3-1, was cloned from alfalfa by rapid amplification of cDNA ends from an expressed sequence tag homologous to soybean pGmPM10 (accession No. AAA91965.1). MsLEA3-1, encodes a deduced protein of 436 amino acids, a calculated molecular weight of 47.0 kDa, a theoretical isoelectric point of 5.18, and closest homology with late embryogenesis abundant proteins in soybean. Sequence homology suggested a signal peptide in the N terminus, and subcellular localization with GFP revealed that MsLEA3-1 was localized preferentially to the nucleolus. The transcript titre of MsLEA3-1 was strongly enriched in leaves compared with roots and stems of mature alfalfa plants. Gene expression of MsLEA3-1 was strongly induced when seedlings were treated with NaCl and ABA. Expression of the MsLEA3-1 transgenic was detected in transgenic tobacco. Malondialdehyde content and, electrical conductivity content were reduced and electrical conductivity and proline content were increased in transgenic tobacco compared with non-transgenic tobacco under salt stress. The results showed that accumulation of the MsLEA3-1 protein in the vegetative tissues of transgenic plants enhanced their tolerance to salt stress. These results demonstrate a role for the MsLEA3-1 protein in stress protection and suggest the potential of the MsLEA3-1 gene for genetic engineering of salt tolerance