149 research outputs found
Importance of Sample Selection in Exoplanet Atmosphere Population Studies
Understanding planet formation requires robust population studies, which are
designed to reveal trends in planet properties. In this work, we aim to
determine if different methods for selecting populations of exoplanets for
atmospheric characterization with JWST could influence population-level
inferences. We generate three hypothetical surveys of
super-Earths/sub-Neptunes, each spanning a similar radius-insolation flux
space. The survey samples are constructed based on three different selection
criteria (evenly-spaced-by-eye, binned, and a quantitative selection function).
Using an injection-recovery technique, we test how robustly individual-planet
atmospheric parameters and population-level parameters can be retrieved. We
find that all three survey designs result in equally suitable targets for
individual atmospheric characterization, but not equally suitable targets for
constraining population parameters. Only samples constructed with a
quantitative method or that are sufficiently evenly-spaced-by-eye result in
robust population parameter constraints. Furthermore, we find that the sample
with the best targets for individual atmospheric study does not necessarily
result in the best constrained population parameters. The method of sample
selection must be considered. We also find that there may be large variability
in population-level results with a sample that is small enough to fit in a
single JWST cycle (12 planets), suggesting that the most successful
population-level analyses will be multi-cycle. Lastly, we infer that our
exploration of sample selection is limited by the small number of transiting
planets with measured masses around bright stars. Our results can guide future
development of programs that aim to determine underlying trends in exoplanet
atmospheric properties and, by extension, formation and evolution processes.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, accepted Ap
Planet Hunters: New Kepler planet candidates from analysis of quarter 2
We present new planet candidates identified in NASA Kepler quarter two public
release data by volunteers engaged in the Planet Hunters citizen science
project. The two candidates presented here survive checks for false-positives,
including examination of the pixel offset to constrain the possibility of a
background eclipsing binary. The orbital periods of the planet candidates are
97.46 days (KIC 4552729) and 284.03 (KIC 10005758) days and the modeled planet
radii are 5.3 and 3.8 R_Earth. The latter star has an additional known planet
candidate with a radius of 5.05 R_Earth and a period of 134.49 which was
detected by the Kepler pipeline. The discovery of these candidates illustrates
the value of massively distributed volunteer review of the Kepler database to
recover candidates which were otherwise uncatalogued.Comment: Accepted to A
Measuring Transit Signal Recovery in the Kepler Pipeline II: Detection Efficiency as Calculated in One Year of Data
The Kepler planet sample can only be used to reconstruct the underlying
planet occurrence rate if the detection efficiency of the Kepler pipeline is
known, here we present the results of a second experiment aimed at
characterising this detection efficiency. We inject simulated transiting planet
signals into the pixel data of ~10,000 targets, spanning one year of
observations, and process the pixels as normal. We compare the set of
detections made by the pipeline with the expectation from the set of simulated
planets, and construct a sensitivity curve of signal recovery as a function of
the signal-to-noise of the simulated transit signal train. The sensitivity
curve does not meet the hypothetical maximum detection efficiency, however it
is not as pessimistic as some of the published estimates of the detection
efficiency. For the FGK stars in our sample, the sensitivity curve is well fit
by a gamma function with the coefficients a = 4.35 and b = 1.05. We also find
that the pipeline algorithms recover the depths and periods of the injected
signals with very high fidelity, especially for periods longer than 10 days. We
perform a simplified occurrence rate calculation using the measured detection
efficiency compared to previous assumptions of the detection efficiency found
in the literature to demonstrate the systematic error introduced into the
resulting occurrence rates. The discrepancies in the calculated occurrence
rates may go some way towards reconciling some of the inconsistencies found in
the literature.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, 1 electronic table, accepted by Ap
Measuring Transit Signal Recovery in the Kepler Pipeline. III. Completeness of the Q1-Q17 DR24 Planet Candidate Catalogue, with Important Caveats for Occurrence Rate Calculations
With each new version of the Kepler pipeline and resulting planet candidate
catalogue, an updated measurement of the underlying planet population can only
be recovered with an corresponding measurement of the Kepler pipeline detection
efficiency. Here, we present measurements of the sensitivity of the pipeline
(version 9.2) used to generate the Q1-Q17 DR24 planet candidate catalog
(Coughlin et al. 2016). We measure this by injecting simulated transiting
planets into the pixel-level data of 159,013 targets across the entire Kepler
focal plane, and examining the recovery rate. Unlike previous versions of the
Kepler pipeline, we find a strong period dependence in the measured detection
efficiency, with longer (>40 day) periods having a significantly lower
detectability than shorter periods, introduced in part by an incorrectly
implemented veto. Consequently, the sensitivity of the 9.2 pipeline cannot be
cast as a simple one-dimensional function of the signal strength of the
candidate planet signal as was possible for previous versions of the pipeline.
We report on the implications for occurrence rate calculations based on the
Q1-Q17 DR24 planet candidate catalog and offer important caveats and
recommendations for performing such calculations. As before, we make available
the entire table of injected planet parameters and whether they were recovered
by the pipeline, enabling readers to derive the pipeline detection sensitivity
in the planet and/or stellar parameter space of their choice.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, full electronic version of Table 1 available at
the NASA Exoplanet Archive; accepted by ApJ May 2nd, 201
Detection of Potential Transit Signals in the First Three Quarters of Kepler Mission Data
We present the results of a search for potential transit signals in the first
three quarters of photometry data acquired by the Kepler Mission. The targets
of the search include 151,722 stars which were observed over the full interval
and an additional 19,132 stars which were observed for only 1 or 2 quarters.
From this set of targets we find a total of 5,392 detections which meet the
Kepler detection criteria: those criteria are periodicity of the signal, an
acceptable signal-to-noise ratio, and a composition test which rejects spurious
detections which contain non-physical combinations of events. The detected
signals are dominated by events with relatively low signal-to-noise ratio and
by events with relatively short periods. The distribution of estimated transit
depths appears to peak in the range between 40 and 100 parts per million, with
a few detections down to fewer than 10 parts per million. The detected signals
are compared to a set of known transit events in the Kepler field of view which
were derived by a different method using a longer data interval; the comparison
shows that the current search correctly identified 88.1% of the known events. A
tabulation of the detected transit signals, examples which illustrate the
analysis and detection process, a discussion of future plans and open,
potentially fruitful, areas of further research are included
Sensitivity Analyses of Exoplanet Occurrence Rates from Kepler and Gaia
We infer the number of planets per star as a function of orbital period and planet size using Kepler archival data products with updated stellar properties from the Gaia Data Release 2. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we incorporate planet radius uncertainties into an inhomogeneous Poisson point process model. We demonstrate that this model captures the general features of the outcome of the planet formation and evolution around GK stars and provides an infrastructure to use the Kepler results to constrain analytic planet distribution models. We report an increased mean and variance in the marginal posterior distributions for the number of planets per GK star when including planet radius measurement uncertainties. We estimate the number of planets per GK star between 0.75 and 2.5 R⊕ and with orbital periods of 50–300 days to have a 68% credible interval of 0.49–0.77 and a posterior mean of 0.63. This posterior has a smaller mean and a larger variance than the occurrence rate calculated in this work and in Burke et al. for the same parameter space using the Q1−Q16 (previous Kepler planet candidate and stellar catalog). We attribute the smaller mean to many of the instrumental false positives at longer orbital periods being removed from the DR25 catalog. We find that the accuracy and precision of our hierarchical Bayesian model posterior distributions are less sensitive to the total number of planets in the sample, and more so for the characteristics of the catalog completeness and reliability and the span of the planet parameter space
A Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet Rescued from False Positive Status
We report the discovery of an Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone of a
low-mass star called Kepler-1649. The planet, Kepler-1649 c, is
1.06 times the size of Earth and transits its 0.1977 +/-
0.0051 Msun mid M-dwarf host star every 19.5 days. It receives 74 +/- 3 % the
incident flux of Earth, giving it an equilibrium temperature of 234 +/- 20K and
placing it firmly inside the circumstellar habitable zone. Kepler-1649 also
hosts a previously-known inner planet that orbits every 8.7 days and is roughly
equivalent to Venus in size and incident flux. Kepler-1649 c was originally
classified as a false positive by the Kepler pipeline, but was rescued as part
of a systematic visual inspection of all automatically dispositioned Kepler
false positives. This discovery highlights the value of human inspection of
planet candidates even as automated techniques improve, and hints that
terrestrial planets around mid to late M-dwarfs may be more common than those
around more massive stars.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in ApJ
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