Modeling and forecasting car ownership based on socio-economic and demographic indicators in Turkey

Since car ownership is an important determinant to analyze car travel behavior especially in developing countries, this paper deals with modeling and forecasting car ownership in Turkey based on socio-economic and demographic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product(GDP) per capita, Gasoline Price (GP), car price and number of employees by using multiple nonlinear regression analysis. Although most of the studies on this subject prefer using annual data, we use monthly data for the analysis of car ownership since all explanatory variables and exchange rates used for the modeling are unstable and vary even in a short period in developing countries such as Turkey. Thus, it may be possible to reflect the effects of socio-economic and demographic indicators on car ownership more properly. During the modeling process, exponential and polynomial nonlinear regression models are set up and then tested to investigate their applicability for car ownership forecasting. Based on results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the polynomial models has been selected to forecast car ownership for the year 2035. In order to reveal the possible different trends of the independent variables in future, car ownership is forecasted along the scenarios which are related to the GDP per capita and GP. Results show that Turkey’s car ownership may vary between 230 and 325 per thousand capita in 2035 depending on economic achievements, global oil prices and national taxation policies. The lowest and the highest values of the car ownership may provide insight to car producers and transport planners in Turkey. Another significant result presented in this study is that car ownership rate will be substantially lower in Turkey than that in the European Union countries despite it has an increasing trend in the past two decades

A rare cause of blepharoconjunctivitis: Phthiriasis palpebrarum

Letter to Edito

Thoracic and Lumbar Vertebral Bone Mineral Density Changes in a Natural Occurring Dog Model of Diffuse Idiopathic Skeletal Hyperostosis

Ankylosing spinal disorders can be associated with alterations in vertebral bone mineral density (BMD). There is however controversy about vertebral BMD in patients wuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH). DISH in Boxer dogs has been considered a natural occurring disease model for DISH in people. The purpose of this study was to compare vertebral BMD between Boxers with and without DISH. Fifty-nine Boxers with (n=30) or without (n=29) DISH that underwent computed tomography were included. Vertebral BMD was calculated for each thoracic and lumbar vertebra by using an earlier reported and validated protocol. For each vertebral body, a region of interest was drawn on the axial computed tomographic images at three separate locations: immediately inferior to the superior end plate, in the middle of the vertebral body, and superior to the inferior end plate. Values from the three axial slices were averaged to give a mean Hounsfield Unit value for each vertebral body. Univariate statistical analysis was performed to identify factors to be included in a multivariate model. The multivariate model including all dogs demonstrated that vertebral DISH status (Coefficient 24.63; 95% CI 16.07 to 33.19; p <0.001), lumbar vertebrae (Coefficient -17.25; 95% CI -23.42 to -11.09; p < 0.01), and to a lesser extent higher age (Coefficient -0.56; 95% CI -1.07 to -0.05; p = 0.03) were significant predictors for vertebral BMD. When the multivariate model was repeated using only dogs with DISH, vertebral DISH status (Coefficient 20.67; 95% CI, 10.98 to 30.37; p < 0.001) and lumbar anatomical region (Coefficient -38.24; 95% CI, -47.75 to -28.73; p < 0.001) were again predictors for vertebral BMD but age was not. The results of this study indicate that DISH can be associated with decreased vertebral BMD. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the clinical importance and pathophysiology of this finding

Prevalence of vertebral fractures in a disease activity steered cohort of patients with early active rheumatoid arthritis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>To determine the prevalence of vertebral fractures (VFs) after 5 years of disease activity score (DAS)-steered treatment in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and to investigate the association of VFs with disease activity, functional ability and bone mineral density (BMD) over time.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Five-year radiographs of the spine of 275 patients in the BeSt study, a randomized trial comparing four treatment strategies, were used. Treatment was DAS-steered (DAS ≤ 2.4). A height reduction >20% in one vertebra was defined a vertebral fracture. With linear mixed models, DAS and Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) scores over 5 years were compared for patients with and without VFs. With generalized estimating equations the association between BMD and VFs was determined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>VFs were observed in 41/275 patients (15%). No difference in prevalence was found when stratified for gender, prednisone use and menopausal status. Disease activity over time was higher in patients with VFs, mean difference 0.20 (95% CI: 0.05-0.36), and also HAQ scores were higher, independent of disease activity, with a mean difference of 0.12 (95% CI: 0.02-0.2). Age was associated with VFs (OR 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.09), mean BMD in spine and hip over time were not (OR 95% CI, 0.99: 0.78-1.25 and 0.94: 0.65-1.36, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>After 5 years of DAS-steered treatment, 15% of these RA patients had VFs. Higher age was associated with the presence of VFs, mean BMD in hip and spine were not. Patients with VFs have greater functional disability over time and a higher disease activity, suggesting that VFs may be prevented by optimal disease activity suppression.</p

The relation between bone mineral density, bone turnover markers, and vitamin D status in ankylosing spondylitis patients with active disease: a cross-sectional analysis

Osteoporosis is a well recognized complication of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). This study indicates that increased bone turnover, inflammation, and low vitamin D levels are important in the pathophysiology of AS-related osteoporosis, and that bone turnover markers (BTM) are valuable markers to detect bone loss in AS. The aim of this study was to elucidate the pathophysiology of AS-related osteoporosis by investigating the relation between bone mineral density (BMD), BTM, vitamin D, and clinical assessments of disease activity and physical function, as well as to identify parameters that are related to low BMD (osteopenia or osteoporosis) in AS patients with active disease. One hundred twenty-eight consecutive Dutch AS outpatients were included in this cross-sectional study. Bath AS Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein, ASAS-endorsed disease activity score (ASDAS), Bath AS Functional Index (BASFI), bone formation markers procollagen type 1 N-terminal peptide (PINP) and osteocalcin (OC), bone resorption marker serum C-telopeptides of type I collagen (sCTX), 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHvitD), lumbar spine and hip BMD, and vertebral fractures were assessed. Z-scores of BTM were calculated using matched 10-year cohorts of a Dutch reference group to correct for the normal influence that age and gender have on bone turnover. sCTX Z-score, OC Z-score, BASDAI, age, and gender were independently related to low BMD. In addition, PINP Z-score, ESR, 25OHvitD, age, and gender were independently related to sCTX and/or OC Z-score. This study indicates that increased bone turnover, inflammation, and low vitamin D levels are important in the pathophysiology of AS-related osteoporosis. Furthermore, sCTX and OC Z-scores seem to be valuable markers to detect bone loss in AS patients in daily clinical practice where BMD of the lumbar spine, measured by DXA, may be overestimated due to osteoproliferation in patients with advanced AS

Ocular adnexal lymphomas: An eye care service experience in Turkey

Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the clinical and pathological features of ocular adnexal lymphoma (OAL) and the treatment results in an eye care service center in Turkey.Materials and Methods: The data sets of the patients diagnosed with OAL acquired between January 2008 and January 2016 were collected and analyzed.Results: Fifteen patients were included in our study. The mean age was 55.80 ± 17.85 years. The age range was 7–85 years. Most of the lesions originated from orbital tissue, and histopathological and immunohistochemistry examinations of the lesions were consistent with non‑Hodgkin’s lymphoma in 14 patients and Hodgkin’s lymphoma in 1 patient. The most common subtype of OAL, accounting for 40% of cases, is extranodular marginal zone lymphoma of mucosa‑associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) type.Conclusion: Most of our patients’ histopathological and immunohistochemistry examinations are non‑Hodgkin’s type and also involve the orbits. Ocular adnexal lymphomatosis is not a rare disorder and could be treated if there is no systemic involvement at first diagnosis.Keywords: Adnexal Lymphoma, Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, tumou

Arsenic removal from drinking water by electrocoagulation using iron electrodes

Arsenic removal from drinking water was investigated using electrocoagulation (EC) followed by filtration. A sand filter was used to remove flocs generated in the EC process. Experiments were performed in a batch electrochemical reactor using iron electrodes with monopolar parallel electrode connection mode to assess their efficiency. The effects of several operating parameters on arsenic removal such as current density (1.5-9.0 mA cm-2), initial arsenic concentration (50-500 μg L-1), operating time (0-15 min), electrode surface area (266-665 cm2), and sodium chloride concentrations (0.01 and 0.02M) were examined. The EC process was able to decrease the residual arsenic concentration to less than 10 μg L-1. Optimum operating conditions were determined as an operating time of 5 min and current density of 4.5 mA cm-2 at pH of 7. The optimum electrode surface area for arsenic removal was found to be 266 cm2 taking into consideration cost effectiveness. The residual iron concentration increased with increasing residence time, and maximum residual iron value was measured as 287 μg L-1 for electrode surface area of 266 cm2. The addition of sodium chloride had no significant effect on residual arsenic concentration, but an increase in current density was observed. © 2013 Korean Institute of Chemical Engineers, Seoul, Korea