CONCLUSIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL PRACTICE, POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT

Agricultural and Food Policy,

High stakes: disaster risk in New Zealand

New Zealand faces significant risks associated with natural hazards (Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2011) and is one of the most vulnerable countries to such risks for its size (Insurance Council of New Zealand, 2014). The 2010–11 Canterbury earthquake sequence resulted in 185 deaths, a $40 billion rebuild cost, equal to about 15$12 billion for building and infrastructure damage alone, plus an annual GDP loss of $10 billion

Current Approaches to Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions

This review paper presents an assessment of the current state of knowledge and capability in seasonal climate prediction at the end of the 20th century. The discussion covers the full range of issues involved in climate forecasting, including (1) the theory and empirical evidence for predictability; (2) predictions of surface boundary conditions, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that drive the predictable part of the climate; (3) predictions of the climate; and (4) a brief consideration of the application of climate forecasts. Within this context, the research of the coming decades that seeks to address shortcomings in each area is described

Current approaches to season-to-interannual climate prediction

This review paper presents an assessment of the current state of knowledge and capability in seasonal climate prediction at the end of the 20th century. The discussion covers the full range of issues involved in climate forecasting, including (1) the theory and empirical evidence for predictability; (2) predictions of surface boundary conditions, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that drive the predictable part of the climate; (3) predictions of the climate; and (4) a brief consideration of the application of climate forecasts. Within this context, the research of the coming decades that seeks to address shortcomings in each area is described

Annual Incidence of Snake Bite in Rural Bangladesh

Snake bite is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in many rural tropical areas. As a neglected public health problem, estimate of the risk is largely unknown. However, the associated personal and economic impact of snake bite is substantial across developing countries. This national survey investigated the risk and consequences of snake bite among the rural Bangladeshi population. We surveyed 18857 individuals from 24 out of 64 districts in Bangladesh where 98 snake bites including one death were reported. The estimated incidence density of snake bite is 623.4/ 100,000 person years (95% CI: 513.4–789.2/100,000 person years). Biting occurs mostly when individuals are at work. The majority of the victims (71%) received snake bites to their lower extremities. Eighty-six percent of the victims received some form of management within two hours of snake bite, although only three percent of them went directly to either a medical doctor or a hospital. The observed rate of snake bite in rural Bangladesh is substantially higher than anticipated. This coupled with poor access to health services led to an increase in related morbidity and mortality. An improvement in public health actions is therefore warranted

A people-centred perspective on climate change, environmental stress, and livelihood resilience in Bangladesh

The Ganges–Brahmaputra delta enables Bangladesh to sustain a dense population, but it also exposes people to natural hazards. This article presents findings from the Gibika project, which researches livelihood resilience in seven study sites across Bangladesh. This study aims to understand how people in the study sites build resilience against environmental stresses, such as cyclones, floods, riverbank erosion, and drought, and in what ways their strategies sometimes fail. The article applies a new methodology for studying people’s decision making in risk-prone environments: the personal Livelihood History interviews (N = 28). The findings show how environmental stress, shocks, and disturbances affect people’s livelihood resilience and why adaptation measures can be unsuccessful. Floods, riverbank erosion, and droughts cause damage to agricultural lands, crops, houses, and properties. People manage to adapt by modifying their agricultural practices, switching to alternative livelihoods, or using migration as an adaptive strategy. In the coastal study sites, cyclones are a severe hazard. The study reveals that when a cyclone approaches, people sometimes choose not to evacuate: they put their lives at risk to protect their livelihoods and properties. Future policy and adaptation planning must use lessons learned from people currently facing environmental stress and shocks

Afrontar los desastres naturales

Ante la previsión de que se produzcan más fenómenos climáticos extremos, parece lógico reforzar los esfuerzos de gobiernos y comunidades encaminados a reducir el riesgo de desastres naturales

Disasters and what to do about them

With the prospect of more extreme weather events, it makes sense to strengthen the efforts of governments and communities to reduce disaster risks