Comparison of Single-Stage and Staged Progression Models for HIV/AIDS Transmission

A single-staged (SS) model and a staged progression (SP) model for HIV/AIDS with the same variable contact rate over time were formulated. In both models, analytical expressions for the HIV prevalence were obtained. A comparison of the two models was undertaken. It is shown that prevalence projections from the SS model are lower than projections from the SP model up to and beyond the peak prevalence, although the SS model prevalence may be higher than that of the SP model much later in the epidemic. A switch from faster SP model prevalence changes to faster SS prevalence changes occurs beyond the SP model peak prevalence. Hence using the SS model underestimates HIV prevalence in the early stages of the epidemic but may overestimate prevalence in the declining HIV prevalence phase. Our comparison suggests that the SP model provides better prevalence projections than the SS model. Moreover, the extra parameters that would make the SP model appear difficult to implement may not be sought from national survey data but from existing HIV/AIDS literature

Mathematical Model for HIV/AIDS with Complacency in a Population with Declining Prevalence

An HIV/AIDS model incorporating complacency for the adult population is formulated. Complacency is assumed a function of number of AIDS cases in a community with an inverse relation. A method to find the equilibrium state of the model is given by proving a stated theorem. An example to illustrate use of the theorem is also given. Model analysis and simulations show that complacency resulting from dependence of HIV transmission on number of AIDS cases in a community leads to damped periodic oscillations in the number of infectives with oscillations more marked at lower rates of progression to AIDS. The implications of these results to public health with respect to monitoring the HIV/AIDS epidemic and widespread use of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs is discussed

Regional Differences in Prevalence of HIV-1 Discordance in Africa and Enrollment of HIV-1 Discordant Couples into an HIV-1 Prevention Trial

Background: Most HIV-1 transmission in Africa occurs among HIV-1-discordant couples (one partner HIV-1 infected and one uninfected) who are unaware of their discordant HIV-1 serostatus. Given the high HIV-1 incidence among HIV-1 discordant couples and to assess efficacy of interventions for reducing HIV-1 transmission, HIV-1 discordant couples represent a critical target population for HIV-1 prevention interventions and prevention trials. Substantial regional differences exist in HIV-1 prevalence in Africa, but regional differences in HIV-1 discordance among African couples, has not previously been reported. Methodology/Principal Findings: The Partners in Prevention HSV-2/HIV-1 Transmission Trial (“Partners HSV-2 Study”), the first large HIV-1 prevention trial in Africa involving HIV-1 discordant couples, completed enrollment in May 2007. Partners HSV-2 Study recruitment data from 12 sites from East and Southern Africa were used to assess HIV-1 discordance among couples accessing couples HIV-1 counseling and testing, and to correlate with enrollment of HIV-1 discordant couples. HIV-1 discordance at Partners HSV-2 Study sites ranged from 8–31% of couples tested from the community. Across all study sites and, among all couples with one HIV-1 infected partner, almost half (49%) of couples were HIV-1 discordant. Site-specific monthly enrollment of HIV-1 discordant couples into the clinical trial was not directly associated with prevalence of HIV-1 discordance, but was modestly correlated with national HIV-1 counseling and testing rates and access to palliative care/basic health care (r = 0.74, p = 0.09). Conclusions/Significance: HIV-1 discordant couples are a critical target for HIV-1 prevention in Africa. In addition to community prevalence of HIV-1 discordance, national infrastructure for HIV-1 testing and healthcare delivery and effective community outreach strategies impact recruitment of HIV-1 discordant couples into HIV-1 prevention trials

High Burden of Prevalent and Recently Acquired HIV among Female Sex Workers and Female HIV Voluntary Testing Center Clients in Kigali, Rwanda

Objectives: To estimate HIV prevalence and risk factors in population-based samples of female sex workers (FSW) and female voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) clients in Rwanda. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 800 FSW and 1,250 female VCT clients in Rwanda, which included interviewing and testing for HIV-1/2, HSV-2 and pregnancy, and BED-CEIA and Avidity Index (AI) to identify recent infections among HIV-infected women. Results: Prevalence of HIV-1, HSV-2, and pregnancy were 24% (95% CI: 21.0-27.0), 59.8% (56.4-63.2), and 7.6% (5.8-9.5) among FSW, and 12.8% (10.9-14.6), 43.2% (40.4-46.0), and 11.4% (9.7-13.3) among VCT clients, respectively. Thirty-five percent of FSW and 25% of VCT clients had never been HIV tested. Per national guidelines, 33% of newly HIV-diagnosed FSW and 36% of VCT clients were already eligible for ART based on CD4,350 cells/ml. Condom use at last sex was higher among FSW (74%) than VCT clients (12%). In age and district of residence-adjusted models, HIV-1 seropositivity was associated with HSV-2 co-infection; recent treatment for sexually transmitted infection (STI); genital symptoms; forced sex; imprisonment; widowhood; and alcohol consumption. Eleven percent of FSW and 12% of VCT clients had recently acquired HIV-1 per BED-CEIA and AI. HSV-2 infection and recent STI treatment were associated with recent HIV infection in both groups, and being married and vaginal cleansing were associated with recent infection before last sex among VCT clients. Conclusions: This population-based survey reveals a high HIV prevalence and incidence among FSW and female VCT clients in Kigali, the scale of which is masked by the low general-population HIV prevalence in Rwanda. HIV/STI and family planning services should be strengthene

Poor newborn care practices - a population based survey in eastern Uganda

BACKGROUND: Four million neonatal deaths are estimated to occur each year and almost all in low income countries, especially among the poorest. There is a paucity of data on newborn health from sub-Saharan Africa and few studies have assessed inequity in uptake of newborn care practices. We assessed socioeconomic differences in use of newborn care practices in order to inform policy and programming in Uganda. METHODS: All mothers with infants aged 1-4 months (n = 414) in a Demographic Surveillance Site were interviewed. Households were stratified into quintiles of socioeconomic status (SES). Three composite outcomes (good neonatal feeding, good cord care, and optimal thermal care) were created by combining related individual practices from a list of twelve antenatal/essential newborn care practices. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants of each dichotomised composite outcome. RESULTS: There were low levels of coverage of newborn care practices among both the poorest and the least poor. SES and place of birth were not associated with any of the composite newborn care practices. Of newborns, 46% had a facility delivery and only 38% were judged to have had good cord care, 42% optimal thermal care, and 57% were considered to have had adequate neonatal feeding. Mothers were putting powder on the cord; using a bottle to feed the baby; and mixing/replacing breast milk with various substitutes. Multiparous mothers were less likely to have safe cord practices (OR 0.5, CI 0.3 - 0.9) as were mothers whose labour began at night (OR 0.6, CI 0.4 - 0.9). CONCLUSION: Newborn care practices in this setting are low and do not differ much by socioeconomic group. Despite being established policy, most neonatal interventions are not reaching newborns, suggesting a "policy-to-practice gap". To improve newborn survival, newborn care should be integrated into the current maternal and child interventions, and should be implemented at both community and health facility level as part of a universal coverage strategy

Sources of HIV incidence among stable couples in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: The recent availability of efficacious prevention interventions among stable couples offers new opportunities for reducing HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the dynamics of HIV incidence among stable couples is critical to inform HIV prevention strategy across sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We quantified the sources of HIV incidence arising among stable couples in sub-Saharan Africa using a cohort-type mathematical model parameterized by nationally representative data. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were incorporated. RESULTS: HIV incidence arising among stable concordant HIV-negative couples contribute each year, on average, 29.4% of total HIV incidence; of those, 22.5% (range: 11.1%-39.8%) are infections acquired by one of the partners from sources external to the couple, less than 1% are infections acquired by both partners from external sources within a year and 6.8% (range: 3.6%-11.6%) are transmissions to the uninfected partner in the couple in less than a year after the other partner acquired the infection from an external source. The mean contribution of stable HIV sero-discordant couples to total HIV incidence is 30.4%, with most of those, 29.7% (range: 9.1%-47.9%), being due to HIV transmissions from the infected to the uninfected partner within the couple. The remaining incidence, 40.2% (range: 23.7%-64.6%), occurs among persons not in stable couples. CONCLUSIONS: Close to two-thirds of total HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa occur among stable couples; however, only half of this incidence is attributed to HIV transmissions from the infected to the uninfected partner in the couple. The remaining incidence is acquired through extra-partner sex. Substantial reductions in HIV incidence can be achieved only through a prevention approach that targets all modes of HIV exposure among stable couples and among individuals not in stable couples

HIV/AIDS in Papua New Guinea: An unfolding disaster?

N/