Homogeneity in prediction of survival probabilities for subcategories of hipprosthesis data : the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association, 2000–2013

Introduction: The four countries in the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association (NARA) share geographic proximity, culture, and ethnicity. Pooling data from different sources in order to obtain higher precision and accuracy of survival-probability estimates is appealing. Nevertheless, survival probabilities of hip replacements vary between the countries. As such, risk prediction for individual patients within countries may be problematic if data are merged. In this study, our primary question was to address when data merging for estimating prosthesis survival in subcategories of patients is advantageous for survival prediction of individual patients, and at what sample sizes this may be advised. Methods: Patients undergoing total hip replacements for osteoarthritis between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2013 in the four Nordic countries were studied. A total of 184,507 patients were stratified into 360 patient subcategories based on country, age-group, sex, fixation, head size, and articulation. For each patient category, we determined the sample size needed from a single country to obtain a more accurate and precise estimate of prosthesis-survival probability at 5 and 10 years compared to an estimate using data from all countries. The comparison was done using mean-square error. Results: We found large variations in the sample size needed, ranging from 40 to 2,060 hips, before an estimate from a single Nordic country was more accurate and precise than estimates based on the NARA data. Conclusion: Using pooled survival-probability estimates for individual risk prediction may be imprecise if there is heterogeneity in the pooled data sources. By applying mean-square error, we demonstrate that for small sample sizes, applying the larger NARA database may provide a more accurate and precise estimate; however, this effect is not consistent and varies with the characteristics of the subcategory

Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis

Aims To develop and validate patient-centred algorithms that estimate individual risk of death over the first year after elective joint arthroplasty surgery for osteoarthritis. Methods A total of 763,213 hip and knee joint arthroplasty episodes recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) and 105,407 episodes from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register were used to model individual mortality risk over the first year after surgery using flexible parametric survival regression. Results The one-year mortality rates in the NJR were 10.8 and 8.9 per 1,000 patient-years after hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively. The Norwegian mortality rates were 9.1 and 6.0 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively. The strongest predictors of death in the final models were age, sex, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Exposure variables related to the intervention, with the exception of knee arthroplasty type, did not add discrimination over patient factors alone. Discrimination was good in both cohorts, with c-indices above 0.76 for the hip and above 0.70 for the knee. Time-dependent Brier scores indicated appropriate estimation of the mortality rate (≤ 0.01, all models). Conclusion Simple demographic and clinical information may be used to calculate an individualized estimation for one-year mortality risk after hip or knee arthroplasty (https://jointcalc.shef.ac.uk). These models may be used to provide patients with an estimate of the risk of mortality after joint arthroplasty

Short-term Revision Risk of Patellofemoral Arthroplasty Is High : An Analysis from Eight Large Arthroplasty Registries

BACKGROUND: Patellofemoral arthroplasty (PFA) is one option for the treatment of isolated patellofemoral osteoarthritis, but there are limited data regarding the procedure and results. Because isolated patellofemoral arthritis is relatively uncommon, available case series generally are small, and even within national registries, sample sizes are limited. Combining data from multiple registries may aid in assessing worldwide PFA usage and survivorship. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: We combined and compared data from multiple large arthroplasty registries worldwide to ask: (1) What proportion of patients undergoing primary knee arthroplasty have PFA? (2) What are the patient and prosthesis characteristics associated with PFA in common practice, as reflected in registries? (3) What is the survivorship free from revision of PFA and what are the reasons for and types of revisions? METHODS: Data were provided by eight registries that are members of the International Society of Arthroplasty Registries (ISAR) who agreed to share aggregate data: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Sweden, Finland, Norway, the Netherlands, and the United States. De-identified data were obtained for PFA performed from either the beginning of year 2000, or the earliest recorded implantation date after that in each individual registry when PFA data collection commenced, up to December 31, 2016. This included patient demographics, implant use, all-cause revision rate (determined by cumulative percent revision [CPR]), and reasons for and type of revision. RESULTS: During the data collection period, 6784 PFAs were performed in the eight countries. PFAs comprised less than 1% of primary knee replacements in all registries. Patient demographics were comparable in all countries. Patients were generally more likely to be women than men, and the mean age ranged from 50 years to 60 years. All registries showed a high rate of revision for PFA. The 5-year CPR for any reason ranged from 8.0% (95% CI 4.5 to 11.5) in Norway to 18.1% (95% CI 15.5 to 20.7) in the Netherlands. The most common reason for revision across all countries was disease progression (42%, 434 of 1034). Most PFAs (83%, 810 of 980) were revised to a TKA. CONCLUSIONS: The revision risk of PFA in all registries surveyed was more than three times higher than the reported revision risk of TKA at the same times. The survivorship of PFA is similar to that of the no-longer-used procedure of metal-on-metal conventional hip replacement. Although there may be potential functional benefits from PFA, these findings of consistent and alarmingly high rates of revision should create concern, particularly as this procedure is often used in younger patients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, therapeutic study