Assimilating Non-Probabilistic Assessments of the Estimation of Uncertainty Bias in Expert Judgment Elicitation Using an Evidence Based Approach in High Consequence Conceptual Designs

One of the major challenges in conceptual designs of complex systems is the identification of uncertainty embedded in the information due to lack of historic data. This becomes of increased concern especially in high-risk industries. This document reports a developed methodology that allows for the cognitive bias, estimation of uncertainty, to be elucidated to improve the quality of elicited data. It consists of a comprehensive literature review that begins by defining a \u27High Consequence Conceptual Engineering Environment\u27 and identifies the high-risk industries in which these environments are found. It proceeds with a discussion that differentiates risk and uncertainty in decision-making in these environments. An argument was built around the identified epistemic category of uncertainty, the impact on hard data for decision-making, and from whom we obtain this data. The review shifts to defining and selecting the experts, the elicitation process in terms of the components, the process phases and steps involved, and an examination of a probabilistic and a fuzzy example. This sets the stage for this methodology that uses evidence theory for the mathematical analysis after the data is elicited using a tailored elicitation process. Yager\u27s combination rule is used to combine evidence and fully recognize the ignorance without ignoring available information. Engineering and management teams from NASA Langley Research Center were the population from which the experts for this study were identified. NASA officials were interested in obtaining uncertainty estimates, and a comparison of these estimates, associated with their Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) designs; the existing Exploration Systems Architecture Study Crew Launch Vehicle (ESAS CLV) and the Parallel-Staged Crew Launch Vehicle (P-S CLV) which is currently being worked. This evidence-based approach identified that the estimation of cost parameters uncertainty is not specifically over or underestimated in High Consequence Conceptual Engineering Environments; rather, there is more uncertainty present than what is being anticipated. From the perspective of maturing designs, it was concluded that the range of cost parameters\u27 uncertainty at different error-state-values were interchangeably larger or smaller when compared to each other even as the design matures

Expression of Galpha14 in sweet-transducing taste cells of the posterior tongue

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>"Type II"/Receptor cells express G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) for sweet, umami (T1Rs and mGluRs) or bitter (T2Rs), as well as the proteins for downstream signalling cascades. Transduction downstream of T1Rs and T2Rs relies on G-protein and PLCβ2-mediated release of stored Ca²⁺. Whereas Gαgus (gustducin) couples to the T2R (bitter) receptors, which Gα-subunit couples to the sweet (T1R2 + T1R3) receptor is presently not known. We utilized RT-PCR, immunocytochemistry and single-cell gene expression profiling to examine the expression of the Gαq family (q, 11, 14) in mouse taste buds.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By RT-PCR, Gα14 is expressed strongly and in a taste selective manner in posterior (vallate and foliate), but not anterior (fungiform and palate) taste fields. Gαq and Gα11, although detectable, are not expressed in a taste-selective fashion. Further, expression of Gα14 mRNA is limited to Type II/Receptor cells in taste buds. Immunocytochemistry on vallate papillae using a broad Gαq family antiserum reveals specific staining only in Type II taste cells (i.e. those expressing TrpM5 and PLCβ2). This staining persists in Gαq knockout mice and immunostaining with a Gα11-specific antiserum shows no immunoreactivity in taste buds. Taken together, these data show that Gα14 is the dominant Gαq family member detected. Immunoreactivity for Gα14 strongly correlates with expression of T1R3, the taste receptor subunit present in taste cells responsive to either umami or sweet. Single cell gene expression profiling confirms a tight correlation between the expression of Gα14 and both T1R2 and T1R3, the receptor combination that forms sweet taste receptors.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Gα14 is co-expressed with the sweet taste receptor in posterior tongue, although not in anterior tongue. Thus, sweet taste transduction may rely on different downstream transduction elements in posterior and anterior taste fields.</p

Acute dietary zinc deficiency in rats exacerbates myocardial ischaemia-reperfusion injury through depletion of glutathione.

Zinc (Zn) plays an important role in maintaining the anti-oxidant status within the heart, and helps to counter the acute redox stress that occurs during myocardial ischaemia and reperfusion. Individuals with low zinc (Zn) levels are at greater risk of developing an acute myocardial infarction; however, the impact of this on the extent of myocardial injury is unknown. The present study aimed to compare the effects of dietary zinc depletion with in vitro removal of Zn (TPEN) on the outcome of acute myocardial infarction and vascular function. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were fed either a zinc adequate (ZA; 35mg Zn/kg diet) or zinc deficient (ZD; < 1mg Zn/kg diet) diet for two weeks prior to heart isolation. Perfused hearts were subjected to a thirty-minute ischaemia/two-hour reperfusion (I/R) protocol, during which time ventricular arrhythmias were recorded and after which infarct size was measured, along with markers of anti-oxidant status. In separate experiments hearts were challenged with the Zn chelator TPEN (10μM) prior to ischaemia onset. Both dietary and TPEN-induced Zn depletion significantly extended infarct size; dietary Zn depletion was associated with reduced total cardiac glutathione (GSH) levels, while TPEN decreased cardiac SOD-1 levels. TPEN, but not dietary Zn depletion also suppressed ventricular arrhythmias and depressed vascular responses to nitric oxide (NO). These findings demonstrate that both modes of zinc depletion worsen the outcome from I/R but through different mechanisms. Dietary Zn deficiency, resulting in reduced cardiac GSH, is the most appropriate model for determining the role of endogenous Zn in I/R injury

Random and Correlated Phases of Primordial Gravitaional Waves

The phases of primordial gravity waves is analysed in detail within a quantum mechanical context following the formalism developed by Grishchuk and Sidorov. It is found that for physically relevant wavelengths both the phase of each individual mode and the phase {\it difference} between modes are randomly distributed. The phase {\it sum} between modes with oppositely directed wave-vectors, however, is not random and takes on a definite value with no rms fluctuation. The conventional point of view that primordial gravity waves appear after inflation as a classical, random stochastic background is also addressed.Comment: 14 pages, written in REVTE

The future impact of changes in rate parity agreements on hotel chains: the long-term implications of the removal of rate parity agreements between hotels and online travel agents using closed consumer group booking models

The Office of Fair Trading, a not-for-profit and non-ministerial government department of the United Kingdom (from April 2014 incorporated within the Competition and Markets Authority), investigated the legality of rate parity from 2012, particularly rate parity agreements made between Intercontinental Hotel Group, Booking.com, and Expedia. Consequently, these major hotel brands and agents have committed to remove rate parity for closed consumer groups. This article identifies confusion over such groups and longer term implications. Smaller agents will enter the market, leading to increased fragmentation and competition. Branded hotels will face tough challenges in protecting prices and value from aggressive agents suddenly facing a more competitive market and independent hoteliers able to establish effective relationships with the new, smaller agents. Keywords : Rate parity, pricing, closed consumer groups, hotels

Problem-based learning supported by semantic techniques

Problem-based learning has been applied over the last three decades to a diverse range of learning environments. In this educational approach, different problems are posed to the learners so that they can develop different solutions while learning about the problem domain. When applied to conceptual modelling, and particularly to Qualitative Reasoning, the solutions to problems are models that represent the behaviour of a dynamic system. The learner?s task then is to bridge the gap between their initial model, as their first attempt to represent the system, and the target models that provide solutions to that problem. We propose the use of semantic technologies and resources to help in bridging that gap by providing links to terminology and formal definitions, and matching techniques to allow learners to benefit from existing models

Black Hole Mass Estimates Based on CIV are Consistent with Those Based on the Balmer Lines

Using a sample of high-redshift lensed quasars from the CASTLES project with observed-frame ultraviolet or optical and near-infrared spectra, we have searched for possible biases between supermassive black hole (BH) mass estimates based on the CIV, Halpha and Hbeta broad emission lines. Our sample is based upon that of Greene, Peng & Ludwig, expanded with new near-IR spectroscopic observations, consistently analyzed high S/N optical spectra, and consistent continuum luminosity estimates at 5100A. We find that BH mass estimates based on the FWHM of CIV show a systematic offset with respect to those obtained from the line dispersion, sigma_l, of the same emission line, but not with those obtained from the FWHM of Halpha and Hbeta. The magnitude of the offset depends on the treatment of the HeII and FeII emission blended with CIV, but there is little scatter for any fixed measurement prescription. While we otherwise find no systematic offsets between CIV and Balmer line mass estimates, we do find that the residuals between them are strongly correlated with the ratio of the UV and optical continuum luminosities. Removing this dependency reduces the scatter between the UV- and optical-based BH mass estimates by a factor of approximately 2, from roughly 0.35 to 0.18 dex. The dispersion is smallest when comparing the CIV sigma_l mass estimate, after removing the offset from the FWHM estimates, and either Balmer line mass estimate. The correlation with the continuum slope is likely due to a combination of reddening, host contamination and object-dependent SED shapes. When we add additional heterogeneous measurements from the literature, the results are unchanged.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal. 37 text pages + 8 tables + 23 figures. Updated with comments by the referee and with a expanded discussion on literature data including new observation