Study of the dependence of long-term stratospheric ozone trends on local solar time

Reliable ozone trends after 2000 are essential to detect early ozone recovery. However, the long-term ground-based and satellite ozone profile trends reported in the literature show a high variability. There are multiple reasons for variability in the reported long-term trends such as the measurement timing and the dataset quality. The Payerne Switzerland microwave radiometer (MWR) ozone trends are significantly positive at 2 % to 3 % per decade in the upper stratosphere (5–1 hPa, 35–48 km), with a high variation with altitude. This is in accordance with the Northern Hemisphere (NH) trends reported by other ground-based instruments in the SPARC LOTUS project. In order to determine what part of the variability between different datasets comes from measurement timing, Payerne MWR and SOCOL v3.0 chemistry–climate model (CCM) trends were estimated for each hour of the day with a multiple linear regression model. Trends were quantified as a function of local solar time (LST). In the middle and upper stratosphere, differences as a function of LST are reported for both the MWR and simulated trends for the post-2000 period. However, these differences are not significant at the 95 % confidence level. In the lower mesosphere (1–0.1 hPa, 48–65 km), the 2010–2018 day- and nighttime trends have been considered. Here again, the variation in the trend with LST is not significant at the 95 % confidence level. Based on these results we conclude that significant trend differences between instruments cannot be attributed to a systematic temporal sampling effect. The dataset quality is of primary importance in a reliable trend derivation, and multi-instrument comparison analyses can be used to assess the long-term stability of data records by estimating the drift and bias of instruments. The Payerne MWR dataset has been homogenized to ensure a stable measurement contribution to the ozone profiles and to take into account the effects of three major instrument upgrades. At each instrument upgrade, a correction offset has been calculated using parallel measurements or simultaneous measurements by an independent instrument. At pressure levels smaller than 0.59 hPa (above ∼50 km), the homogenization corrections to be applied to the Payerne MWR ozone profiles are dependent on LST. Due to the lack of reference measurements with a comparable measurement contribution at a high time resolution, a comprehensive homogenization of the sub-daily ozone profiles was possible only for pressure levels larger than 0.59 hPa. The ozone profile dataset from the Payerne MWR, Switzerland, was compared with profiles from the GROMOS MWR in Bern, Switzerland, satellite instruments (MLS, MIPAS, HALOE, SCHIAMACHY, GOMOS), and profiles simulated by the SOCOL v3.0 CCM. The long-term stability and mean biases of the time series were estimated as a function of the measurement time (day- and nighttime). The homogenized Payerne MWR ozone dataset agrees within ±5 % with the MLS dataset over the 30 to 65 km altitude range and within ±10 % of the HARMonized dataset of OZone profiles (HARMOZ, limb and occultation measurements from ENVISAT) over the 30 to 65 km altitude range. In the upper stratosphere, there is a large nighttime difference between Payerne MWR and other datasets, which is likely a result of the mesospheric signal aliasing with lower levels in the stratosphere due to a lower vertical resolution at that altitude. Hence, the induced bias at 55 km is considered an instrumental artifact and is not further analyzed.ISSN:1680-7375ISSN:1680-736

On the Long-term Stability of Satellite and Ground-based Ozone Profile Records

International audienceIn recent years, many analyses of space- and ground-based data records reported signs or evidence of increasing ozone concentrations in the extrapolar upper stratosphere since the late 1990s. However, the magnitude and significance of the trend estimates vary from one study to another, prompting the ozone research community to further investigate the causes of these differences. A broader consensus has emerged in the past year, placing the positive trend in the upper stratosphere on solid ground and heralding the start of an observation-based exploration of the recovery of stratospheric ozone. More accurate trend estimates are needed to identify the geophysical processes contributing to the recovery and their relative importance. Uncovering seasonal and spatial trend patterns will be key in reaching this objective, not just in the extrapolar upper stratosphere but elsewhere as well.However, at the moment, it remains unclear whether current ozone profile observing systems are able to provide this information. We address this question with an exploration of the capabilities and limitations of current data records in space (limb/occultation sounders) and on the ground (NDACC/GAW/SHADOZ-affiliated sonde, stratospheric lidar and microwave radiometer sites) to infer decadal trends and their vertical, latitudinal and seasonal patterns. We focus on long-term stability, one of the key drivers of the ability to detect trends. We present updated results of a comprehensive analysis that allowed us to quantify the drift of satellite data relative to the ground-based networks (Hubert et al., 2016). In a companion analysis we exploited the satellite data to uncover temporal and spatial inhomogeneities in the ground-based time series, some of which were traced to known changes occurring at different moments across the network. These changes add to the challenge to derive unbiased ozone trends from ground-based observations and they impede our ability to constrain satellite drift to the level required for current and future ozone trend assessments. We conclude that ongoing efforts to homogenise the ground-based data records are essential