289 research outputs found
Epidemiological reference ranges for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and apolipoprotein B for identification of increased risk of ischaemic heart disease
Although there is widespread acceptance that total cholesterol (TC) value reference ranges should be based on epidemiological rather than statistical considerations, the epidemiological action limits for Iow-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) are still incomplete and only statistical reference ranges for apolipoprotein B (Apo-B) levels are available. The combined use of epidemiological reference ranges for TC and incomplete or statistical reference ranges for LDL-C and Apo-B is illogical, since these parameters may fall into discordant risk categories that will hamper and complicate the management of hypercholesterolaemia. Based on a study of Iipograms obtained from ± 3 000 inhabitants of two industrialised Transvaal towns, the agerelated epidemiological reference ranges for LDL-C and ApoB were established. A comparison with published observational studies of other populations, in which comparable lipid, lipoprotein and apolipoprotein methodologies were used, reflected the severity of these lipid-related abnormalities in white South Africans, especially after the age of 30 years. In addition, the serum TC values found in this survey were not significantly different from those obtained 10 years ago
An outbreak of encephalomyocarditis-virus infection in free-ranging African elephants in the Kruger National Park
A cluster of four deaths in late December 1993, marked the onset of an outbreak of disease of African
elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa, which has an estimated
population of 7 500 elephants. Mortalities peaked in January 1994, with 32 deaths, and then declined
steadily to reach pre-outbreak levels by September, but sporadic losses continued until November. During
the outbreak altogether 64 elephants died, of which 53 (83%) were adult bulls. Archival records
revealed that, in addition to the usual losses from known causes such as poaching and intraspecific
fighting, sporadic deaths from unexplained causes had, in fact, occurred in widely scattered locations
from at least 1987 onwards, and from that time until the perceived outbreak of disease there had been
48 such deaths involving 33 (69%) adult bulls. Carcases had frequently become decomposed or had
been scavenged by the time they were found, but seven of eight elephants examined early in 1994 had
lesions of cardiac failure suggestive of encephalomyocarditis (EMC)-virus infection, and the virus was
isolated from the heart muscles of three fresh carcases. The results of tests for neutralizing antibody
on 362 elephant sera collected for unrelated purposes from 1984 onwards and kept frozen, indicated
that the virus had been present in the KNP since at least 1987. Antibody prevalences of 62 of 116 (53
%), 18 of 139 (13%) and seven of 33 (21 %) were found in elephants in three different regions of the
KNP in 1993 and 1994. Studies had been conducted on myomorph rodents in the KNP for unrelated
purposes since 1984, and trapping attempts were increased during the perceived outbreak of disease
in elephants. There was a striking temporal correlation between the occurrence of a population explosion
(as evidenced by markedly increased catch rates per trap-night) and a surge in prevalence of antibody
to EMC virus in rodents, and the occurrence of the outbreak of disease in elephants.The articles have been scanned in colour with a HP Scanjet 5590; 600dpi.
Adobe Acrobat XI Pro was used to OCR the text and also for the merging and conversion to the final presentation PDF-format.mn201
QED and the High Polarization of the Thermal Radiation from Neutron Stars
The thermal emission of strongly magnetized neutron-star atmospheres is
thought to be highly polarized. However, because of the different orientations
of the magnetic field over the surface of the neutron star (NS), it is commonly
assumed that the net observed polarization will be significantly reduced as the
polarization from different regions will cancel each other. We show that the
birefringence of the magnetized QED vacuum decouples the polarization modes in
the magnetosphere; therefore, the direction of the polarization follows the
direction of the magnetic field up to a large distance from the stellar
surface. At this distance, the rays that leave the surface and are destined for
our detectors pass through only a small solid angle; consequently, the
polarization direction of the emission originating in different regions will
tend to align together. The net observed polarization of the thermal radiation
of NSs should therefore be very large. Measurement of this polarization will be
the first direct evidence of the birefringence of the magnetized vacuum due to
QED and a direct probe of behavior of the vacuum at magnetic fields of order of
and above the critical QED field of 4.4 x 10 13 G. The large observable
polarization will also help us learn more about the atmospheric properties of
NSs.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, minor changes to reflect accepted versio
“And DPSIR begat DAPSI(W)R(M)!” - A unifying framework for marine environmental management
The marine environment is a complex system formed by interactions between ecological structure and functioning, physico-chemical processes and socio-economic systems. An increase in competing marine uses and users requires a holistic approach to marine management which considers the environmental, economic and societal impacts of all activities. If managed sustainably, the marine environment will deliver a range of ecosystem services which lead to benefits for society. In order to understand the complexity of the system, the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) approach has long been a valuable problem-structuring framework used to assess the causes, consequences and responses to change in a holistic way. Despite DPSIR being used for a long time, there is still confusion over the definition of its terms and so to be appropriate for current marine management, we contend that this confusion needs to be addressed. Our viewpoint advocates that DPSIR should be extended to DAPSI(W)R(M) (pronounced dap-see-worm) in which Drivers of basic human needs require Activities which lead to Pressures. The Pressures are the mechanisms of State change on the natural system which then leads to Impacts (on human Welfare). Those then require Responses (as Measures). Furthermore, because of the complexity of any managed sea area in terms of multiple Activities, there is the need for a linked-DAPSI(W)R(M) framework, and then the connectivity between marine ecosystems and ecosystems in the catchment and further at sea, requires an interlinked, nested-DAPSI(W)R(M) framework to reflect the continuum between adjacent ecosystems. Finally, the unifying framework for integrated marine management is completed by encompassing ecosystem structure and functioning, ecosystem services and societal benefits. Hence, DAPSI(W)R(M) links the socio-ecological system of the effects of changes to the natural system on the human uses and benefits of the marine system. However, to deliver these sustainably in the light of human activities requires a Risk Assessment and Risk Management framework; the ISO-compliant Bow-Tie method is used here as an example. Finally, to secure ecosystem health and economic benefits such as Blue Growth, successful, adaptive and sustainable marine management Responses (as Measures) are delivered using the 10-tenets, a set of facets covering all management disciplines and approaches
Tests of sunspot number sequences: 2. Using geomagnetic and auroral data
We compare four sunspot-number data sequences against geomagnetic and terrestrial auroral observations. The comparisons are made for the original SIDC (Solar Influences Data Center) composite of Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [RISNv1], the group sunspot number [RG] by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys., 181, 491, 1998), the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] by Svalgaard and Schatten (Solar Phys., doi: 10.1007/s11207-015-0815-8, 2016), and the “corrected” sunspot number [RC] by Lockwood, Owens, and Barnard (J. Geophys. Res., 119, 5172, 2014). Each sunspot number is fitted with terrestrial observations, or parameters derived from terrestrial observations to be linearly proportional to sunspot number, over a 30-year calibration interval of 1982 - 2012. The fits are then used to compute test sequences, which extend further back in time and which are compared to RISNv1, RG, RBB, and RC. To study the long-term trends, comparisons are made using averages over whole solar cycles (minimum-to-minimum). The test variations are generated in four ways: i) using the IDV(1d) and IDV geomagnetic indices (for 1845 - 2013) fitted over the calibration interval using the various sunspot numbers and the phase of the solar cycle; ii) from the open solar flux (OSF) generated for 1845 - 2013 from four pairings of geomagnetic indices by Lockwood et al. (Ann. Geophys., 32, 383, 2014) and analysed using the OSF continuity model of Solanki, Schüssler, and Fligge (Nature, 408, 445, 2000) which employs a constant fractional OSF loss rate; iii) the same OSF data analysed using the OSF continuity model of Owens and Lockwood (J. Geophys. Res., 117, A04102, 2012) in which the fractional loss rate varies with the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet and hence with the phase of the solar cycle; iv) the occurrence frequency of low-latitude aurora for 1780 - 1980 from the survey of Legrand and Simon (Ann. Geophys., 5, 161, 1987). For all cases, RBB exceeds the test terrestrial series by an amount that increases as one goes back in time
Horizontal Branch Stars: The Interplay between Observations and Theory, and Insights into the Formation of the Galaxy
We review HB stars in a broad astrophysical context, including both variable
and non-variable stars. A reassessment of the Oosterhoff dichotomy is
presented, which provides unprecedented detail regarding its origin and
systematics. We show that the Oosterhoff dichotomy and the distribution of
globular clusters (GCs) in the HB morphology-metallicity plane both exclude,
with high statistical significance, the possibility that the Galactic halo may
have formed from the accretion of dwarf galaxies resembling present-day Milky
Way satellites such as Fornax, Sagittarius, and the LMC. A rediscussion of the
second-parameter problem is presented. A technique is proposed to estimate the
HB types of extragalactic GCs on the basis of integrated far-UV photometry. The
relationship between the absolute V magnitude of the HB at the RR Lyrae level
and metallicity, as obtained on the basis of trigonometric parallax
measurements for the star RR Lyrae, is also revisited, giving a distance
modulus to the LMC of (m-M)_0 = 18.44+/-0.11. RR Lyrae period change rates are
studied. Finally, the conductive opacities used in evolutionary calculations of
low-mass stars are investigated. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 56 pages, 22 figures. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and
Space Scienc
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The variation of geomagnetic storm duration with intensity
Variability in the near-Earth solar wind conditions can adversely affect a number of ground- and space-based technologies. Such space-weather impacts on ground infrastructure are expected to increase primarily with geomagnetic storm intensity, but also storm duration, through time-integrated effects. Forecasting storm duration is also necessary for scheduling the resumption of safe operating of affected infrastructure. It is therefore important to understand the degree to which storm intensity and duration are correlated. The long-running, global geomagnetic disturbance index, aa , has recently been recalibrated to account for the geographic distribution of the component stations. We use this aaH index to analyse the relationship between geomagnetic storm intensity and storm duration over the past 150 years, further adding to our understanding of the climatology of geomagnetic activity. Defining storms using a peak-above-threshold approach, we find that more intense storms have longer durations, as expected, though the relationship is nonlinear. The distribution of durations for a given intensity is found to be approximately log-normal. On this basis, we provide a method to probabilistically predict storm duration given peak intensity, and test this against the aaH dataset. By considering the average profile of storms with a superposed-epoch analysis, we show that activity becomes less recurrent on the 27-day timescale with increasing intensity. This change in the dominant physical driver, and hence average profile, of geomagnetic activity with increasing threshold is likely the reason for the nonlinear behaviour of storm duration
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