Scatter of mass changes estimates at basin scale for Greenland and Antarctica

During the last decade, the GRACE mission has provided valuable data for determining the mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Yet, discrepancies still exist in the published mass balance results, and comprehensive analyses on the sources of errors and discrepancies are lacking. Here, we present monthly mass changes together with trends derived from GRACE data at basin scale for both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and we assess the variability and errors for each of the possible sources of discrepancies, and we do this in an unprecedented systematic way, taking into account mass inference methods, data sets and background models. We find a very good agreement between the monthly mass change results derived from two independent methods, which represents a cross validation. For the monthly solutions, we find that most of the scatter is caused by the use of the two different data sets rather than the two different methods applied. Besides the well-known GIA trend uncertainty, we find that the geocenter motion and the recent de-aliasing corrections significantly impact the trends, with contributions of +13.2 Gt yr⁻¹ and −20 Gt yr⁻¹, respectively, for Antarctica, which is more affected by these than Greenland. We show differences between the use of release RL04 and the new RL05 and confirm a lower noise content in the new release. The overall scatter of the solutions well exceeds the uncertainties propagated from the data errors and the leakage (as done in the past); hence we calculate new sound total errors for the monthly solutions and the trends. We find that the scatter in the monthly solutions caused by applying different estimates of geocenter motion time series (degree-1 corrections) is significant – contributing with up to 40% of the total error. For the whole GRACE period (2003–2011) our trend estimate for Greenland is −234 ± 20 Gt yr⁻¹ and −83 ± 36 Gt yr⁻¹ for Antarctica (−111 ± 15 Gt yr⁻¹ in the western part). We also find a clear (with respect to our errors) increase of mass loss in the last four years

Mass changes in Arctic ice caps and glaciers: implications of regionalizing elevation changes

The mass balance of glaciers and ice caps is sensitive to changing climate conditions. The mass changes derived in this study are determined from elevation changes derived measured by the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) for the time period 2003–2009. Four methods, based on interpolation and extrapolation, are used to regionalize these elevation changes to areas without satellite coverage. A constant density assumption is then applied to estimate the mass change by integrating over the entire glaciated region. <br><br> The main purpose of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of the regional mass balance of Arctic ice caps and glaciers to different regionalization schemes. The sensitivity analysis is based on studying the spread of mass changes and their associated errors, and the suitability of the different regionalization techniques is assessed through cross-validation. <br><br> The cross-validation results shows comparable accuracies for all regionalization methods, but the inferred mass change in individual regions, such as Svalbard and Iceland, can vary up to 4 Gt a⁻¹, which exceeds the estimated errors by roughly 50% for these regions. This study further finds that this spread in mass balance is connected to the magnitude of the elevation change variability. This indicates that care should be taken when choosing a regionalization method, especially for areas which exhibit large variability in elevation change

Oral contraceptives combined with interferon β in multiple sclerosis

Objective: To test the effect of oral contraceptives (OCs) in combination with interferon b (IFN-b) on disease activity in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Methods: One hundred fifty women with RRMS were randomized in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive IFNb-1a subcutaneously (SC) only (group 1), IFN-b-1a SC plus ethinylstradiol 20 mg and desogestrel 150 mg (group 2), or IFN-b-1a SC plus ethinylestradiol 40 mg and desogestrel 125 mg (group 3). The primary endpoint was the cumulative number of combined unique active (CUA) lesions on brain MRI at week 96. Secondary endpoints included MRI and clinical and safety measures. Results: The estimated number of cumulative CUA lesions at week 96 was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81–1.14) in group 1, 0.84 (95% CI 0.66–1.02) in group 2, and 0.72 (95% CI 0.53–0.91) in group 3, with a decrease of 14.1% (p 5 0.24) and 26.5% (p 5 0.04) when comparing group 1 with groups 2 and 3, respectively. The number of patients with no gadoliniumenhancing lesions was greater in group 3 than in group 1 (p 5 0.03). No significant differences were detected in other secondary endpoints. IFN-b or OC discontinuations were equally distributed across groups. Conclusions: Our results translate the observations derived from experimental models to patients, supporting the anti-inflammatory effects of OCs with high-dose estrogens, and suggest possible directions for future research

Relationship between prolactin plasma levels and white matter volume in women with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND: The role of prolactin (PRL) on tissue injury and repair mechanisms in multiple sclerosis (MS) remains unclear. The aim of this work was to investigate the relationship between PRL plasma levels and brain damage as measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). METHODS: We employed a chemiluminescence immunoassay for measuring plasma levels of PRL. We used a 1.5 T scanner to acquire images and Jim 4.0 and SIENAX software to analyse them. RESULTS: We included 106 women with relapsing remitting (RR) MS and stable disease in the last two months. There was no difference in PRL plasma levels between patients with and without gadolinium enhancement on MRI. PRL plasma levels correlated with white matter volume (WMV) (rho = 0.284, p = 0.014) but not with grey matter volume (GMV). Moreover, PRL levels predicted changes in WMV (Beta: 984, p = 0.034). CONCLUSIONS: Our data of a positive association between PRL serum levels and WMV support the role of PRL in promoting myelin repair as documented in animal models of demyelination. The lack of an increase of PRL in the presence of gadolinium enhancement, contrasts with the view considering this hormone as an immune-stimulating and detrimental factor in the inflammatory process associated with MS

A GNSS velocity field for geophysical applications in Fennoscandia

In Fennoscandia, tectonics, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), and climatic changes cause ongoing crustal deformation of some millimetres per year, both vertically and horizontally. These displacements of the Earth can be measured to a high degree of precision using a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Since about three decades, this is the major goal of the Baseline Inferences for Fennoscandian Rebound, Sea-level, and Tectonics (BIFROST) project. We present a new velocity field for an extended BIFROST GNSS network in the ITRF2008 reference frame making use of the GNSS processing package GPS Analysis Software of MIT (GAMIT). Compared to earlier publications, we have almost doubled the number of stations in our analysis and increased the observation time span, thereby avoiding the early years of the network with many instrument changes. We also provide modelled vertical deformation rates from contributing processes, i.e. elastic deformation due to global atmospheric and non-tidal ocean loading, ice mass and hydrological changes as well as GIA. These values for the vertical component can be used for removal of these contributions so that the residual uplift signal can be further analysed, e.g., in the context of local or regional deformation processes or large-scale but low-magnitude geodynamics. The velocity field has an uplift maximum of 10.3 mm/yr in northern Sweden west of the Gulf of Bothnia and subsidence exceeding 1 mm/yr in northern Central Europe. The horizontal velocity field is dominated by plate motion of more than 20.0 mm/yr from south-west to north-east. The elastic uplift signal sums up to 0.7–0.8 mm/yr for most stations in Northern Europe. Hence, the maximum uplift related to the past glaciation is ca. 9.6 mm/yr. The residual uplift signal after removal of the elastic and GIA contribution may point to possible improvements of the GIA model, but may also indicate regional tectonic and erosional processes as well as local deformation effects. We show an example of such residual signal discussing potential areas of interest for further studies