Modelling to bridge many boundaries: the Colorado and Murray-Darling River basins

Increasing pressure on shared water resources has often been a driver for the development and utilisation of water resource models (WRMs) to inform planning and management decisions. With an increasing emphasis on regional decision-making among competing actors as opposed to top-down and authoritative directives, the need for integrated knowledge and water diplomacy efforts across federal and international rivers provides a test bed for the ability of WRMs to operate within complex historical, social, environmental, institutional and political contexts. This paper draws on theories of sustainability science to examine the role of WRMs to inform transboundary water resource governance in large river basins. We survey designers and users of WRMs in the Colorado River Basin in North America and the Murray-Darling Basin in southeastern Australia. Water governance in such federal rivers challenges inter-governmental and multi-level coordination and we explore these dynamics through the application of WRMs. The development pathways of WRMs are found to influence their uptake and acceptance as decision support tools. Furthermore, we find evidence that WRMs are used as boundary objects and perform the functions of ‘boundary work’ between scientists, decision-makers and stakeholders in the midst of regional environmental changes

Correlation of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Specific and Non-Specific Quantitative Th1 T-Cell Responses with Bacillary Load in a High Burden Setting

Measures of bacillary load in patients with tuberculosis (TB) may be useful for predicting and monitoring response to treatment. The relationship between quantitative T-cell responses and mycobacterial load remains unclear. We hypothesised that, in a HIV-prevalent high burden setting, the magnitude of mycobacterial antigen-specific and non-specific T-cell IFN-γ responses would correlate with (a) bacterial load and (b) culture conversion in patients undergoing treatment.We compared baseline (n = 147), 2 (n = 35) and 6 month (n = 13) purified-protein-derivative (PPD) and RD1-specific (TSPOT.TB and QFT-GIT) blood RD1-specific (TSPOT.TB; QFT-GIT) responses with associates of sputum bacillary load in patients with culture-confirmed TB in Cape Town, South Africa.IFN-γ responses were not associated with liquid culture time-to-positivity, smear-grade, Xpert MTB/RIF-generated cycle threshold values or the presence of cavities on the chest radiograph in patients with culture-confirmed TB and irrespective of HIV-status. 2-month IGRA conversion rates (positive-to-negative) were negligible [<11% for TSPOT.TB (3/28) and QFT-GIT (1/29)] and lower compared to culture [60% (21/35); p<0.01].In a high burden HIV-prevalent setting T-cell IFN-γ responses to M. tuberculosis-specific and non-specific antigens do not correlate with bacillary load, including Xpert MTB/RIF-generated C(T) values, and are therefore poorly suited for monitoring treatment and prognostication

Time to culture positivity and sputum smear microscopy during tuberculosis therapy.

Sputum smear microscopy is widely used for tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment monitoring. We evaluated the correlation between smear microscopy and time to liquid culture positivity during early tuberculosis treatment. The study included patients with smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis hospitalized at a tuberculosis reference centre in Germany between 01/2012 and 05/2013. Patient records were reviewed and clinical, radiological and microbiological data were analysed. Sputum samples were collected before treatment initiation and weekly thereafter. A number of 310 sputum samples from 30 patients were analysed. Time to liquid culture positivity inversely correlated with smear grade (Spearman's rho -0.439, p<0.001). There was a better correlation within the first two months vs. after two months of therapy (-0.519 vs. -0.416) with a trend to a more rapid increase in time to positivity between baseline and week 2 in patients who culture-converted within the first two months (5.9 days vs. 9.4 days, p = 0.3). In conclusion, the numbers of acid-fast bacilli in sputum smears of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis and time to culture positivity for M. tuberculosis cultures from sputum are correlated before and during tuberculosis treatment. A considerable proportion of patients with culture conversion after two months of therapy continued to have detectable acid-fast bacilli on sputum smears

Long-term dominance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Uganda family in peri-urban Kampala-Uganda is not associated with cavitary disease

Previous studies have shown that Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) Uganda family, a sub-lineage of the MTB Lineage 4, is the main cause of tuberculosis (TB) in Uganda. Using a well characterized patient population, this study sought to determine whether there are clinical and patient characteristics associated with the success of the MTB Uganda family in Kampala.; A total of 1,746 MTB clinical isolates collected from1992-2009 in a household contact study were genotyped. Genotyping was performed using Single Nucleotide Polymorphic (SNP) markers specific for the MTB Uganda family, other Lineage 4 strains, and Lineage 3, respectively. Out of 1,746 isolates, 1,213 were from patients with detailed clinical data. These data were used to seek associations between MTB lineage/sub-lineage and patient phenotypes.; Three MTB lineages were found to dominate the MTB population in Kampala during the last two decades. Overall, MTB Uganda accounted for 63% (1,092/1,746) of all cases, followed by other Lineage 4 strains accounting for 22% (394/1,746), and Lineage 3 for 11% (187/1,746) of cases, respectively. Seventy-three (4 %) strains remained unclassified. Our longitudinal data showed that MTB Uganda family occurred at the highest frequency during the whole study period, followed by other Lineage 4 strains and Lineage 3. To explore whether the long-term success of MTB Uganda family was due to increased virulence, we used cavitary disease as a proxy, as this form of TB is the most transmissible. Multivariate analysis revealed that even though cavitary disease was associated with known risk factors such as smoking (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 4.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.33-6.84) and low income (aOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.47-3.01), no association was found between MTB lineage and cavitary TB.; The MTB Uganda family has been dominating in Kampala for the last 18 years, but this long-term success is not due to increased virulence as defined by cavitary disease