A Practical, Accurate, Information Criterion for Nth Order Markov Processes

The recent increase in the breath of computational methodologies has been matched with a corresponding increase in the difficulty of comparing the relative explanatory power of models from different methodological lineages. In order to help address this problem a Markovian information criterion (MIC) is developed that is analogous to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) in its theoretical derivation and yet can be applied to any model able to generate simulated or predicted data, regardless of its methodology. Both the AIC and proposed MIC rely on the Kullback–Leibler (KL) distance between model predictions and real data as a measure of prediction accuracy. Instead of using the maximum likelihood approach like the AIC, the proposed MIC relies instead on the literal interpretation of the KL distance as the inefficiency of compressing real data using modelled probabilities, and therefore uses the output of a universal compression algorithm to obtain an estimate of the KL distance. Several Monte Carlo tests are carried out in order to (a) confirm the performance of the algorithm and (b) evaluate the ability of the MIC to identify the true data-generating process from a set of alternative models

Selective Deletion of PTEN in Dopamine Neurons Leads to Trophic Effects and Adaptation of Striatal Medium Spiny Projecting Neurons

The widespread distribution of the tumor suppressor PTEN in the nervous system suggests a role in a broad range of brain functions. PTEN negatively regulates the signaling pathways initiated by protein kinase B (Akt) thereby regulating signals for growth, proliferation and cell survival. Pten deletion in the mouse brain has revealed its role in controlling cell size and number. In this study, we used Cre-loxP technology to specifically inactivate Pten in dopamine (DA) neurons (Pten KO mice). The resulting mutant mice showed neuronal hypertrophy, and an increased number of dopaminergic neurons and fibers in the ventral mesencephalon. Interestingly, quantitative microdialysis studies in Pten KO mice revealed no alterations in basal DA extracellular levels or evoked DA release in the dorsal striatum, despite a significant increase in total DA tissue levels. Striatal dopamine receptor D1 (DRD1) and prodynorphin (PDyn) mRNA levels were significantly elevated in KO animals, suggesting an enhancement in neuronal activity associated with the striatonigral projection pathway, while dopamine receptor D2 (DRD2) and preproenkephalin (PPE) mRNA levels remained unchanged. In addition, PTEN inactivation protected DA neurons and significantly enhanced DA-dependent behavioral functions in KO mice after a progressive 6OHDA lesion. These results provide further evidence about the role of PTEN in the brain and suggest that manipulation of the PTEN/Akt signaling pathway during development may alter the basal state of dopaminergic neurotransmission and could provide a therapeutic strategy for the treatment of Parkinson's disease, and other neurodegenerative disorders

Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics and Finance

Since the survey by Windrum et al. (Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10:8, 2007), research on empirical validation of agent-based models in economics has made substantial advances, thanks to a constant flow of high-quality contributions. This Chapter attempts to take stock of such recent literature to offer an updated critical review of the existing validation techniques. We sketch a simple theoretical framework that conceptualizes existing validation approaches, which we examine along three different dimensions: (i) comparison between artificial and real-world data; (ii) calibration and estimation of model parameters; and (iii) parameter space exploration. Finally, we discuss open issues in the field of ABM validation and estimation. In particular, we argue that more research efforts should be devoted toward advancing hypothesis testing in ABM, with specific emphasis on model stationarity and ergodicity

Performance of West African Dwarf (WAD) Goats Fed Urea Treated Maize Offal as Supplement to Natural Herbage

West African Dwarf (WAD) goats grazing natural herbage were supplemented with different levels of urea treated maize offal (UMO) to determine their performance. The maize offal were treated at 0% UMO, 4% UMO, 6% UMO and 8% UMO representing 0, 4, 6 and 8% of urea respectively. Naturally grazing twenty WAD bucks aged between 7 and 9 months weighing 8.7 ±1.5kg were randomly allocated to five supplementary diets (0% UMO, 4% UMO, 6% UMO and 8% UMO) in a completely randomized design lasting 84 days to determine the effect of the supplementation. Significant (

Charge and discharge behavior of elemental sulfur in isochoric high temperature thermal energy storage systems

Thermal energy storage with elemental sulfur is a low-cost alternative to molten salts for many medium to high-temperature energy applications (200–600 °C). In this effort, by examining elemental sulfur stored isochorically inside isolated pipes, we find that sulfur provides attractive charge/discharge performance since it operates in the liquid-vapor regime at the temperatures relevant to many important applications, such as combined heat and power (CHP) plants and concentrating solar power (CSP) plants with advanced power cycle systems. The isolated pipe configuration is relevant to shell-and-tube thermal battery applications where the heat transfer fluid flows over the storage pipes through the shell. We analyze the transient charge and discharge behavior of sulfur inside the pipes using detailed computational modeling of the complex conjugate heat transfer and fluid flow phenomena. The computational model is validated against experiments of a single tube with well-defined temperature boundary conditions and internal temperature measurements. The model results evaluate the influence of pipe diameter on charge and discharge times, heat transfer rate, and Nusselt number due to buoyancy driven convection currents. Depending on the Rayleigh number (pipe diameter), the average Nusselt number obtained for discharge is 3–14 times higher than proposed solid-liquid phase change technologies based on molten salt, which are limited in their performance due to conduction based solidification and low thermal conductivity. The results show competing trade-offs between increase in heat transfer coefficient, thermal energy stored in sulfur, and increase in charge and discharge time with increase in pipe diameter. A preferred pipe diameter can be determined for target applications based on their requirements and these competing trade-offs. A validated fundamental correlation for Nusselt number as a function of Rayleigh number for charge and discharge is developed that can be used to design the sulfur-based thermal storage system for transient operation

Charge and discharge behavior of elemental sulfur in isochoric high temperature thermal energy storage systems

Thermal energy storage with elemental sulfur is a low-cost alternative to molten salts for many medium to high-temperature energy applications (200–600 °C). In this effort, by examining elemental sulfur stored isochorically inside isolated pipes, we find that sulfur provides attractive charge/discharge performance since it operates in the liquid-vapor regime at the temperatures relevant to many important applications, such as combined heat and power (CHP) plants and concentrating solar power (CSP) plants with advanced power cycle systems. The isolated pipe configuration is relevant to shell-and-tube thermal battery applications where the heat transfer fluid flows over the storage pipes through the shell. We analyze the transient charge and discharge behavior of sulfur inside the pipes using detailed computational modeling of the complex conjugate heat transfer and fluid flow phenomena. The computational model is validated against experiments of a single tube with well-defined temperature boundary conditions and internal temperature measurements. The model results evaluate the influence of pipe diameter on charge and discharge times, heat transfer rate, and Nusselt number due to buoyancy driven convection currents. Depending on the Rayleigh number (pipe diameter), the average Nusselt number obtained for discharge is 3–14 times higher than proposed solid-liquid phase change technologies based on molten salt, which are limited in their performance due to conduction based solidification and low thermal conductivity. The results show competing trade-offs between increase in heat transfer coefficient, thermal energy stored in sulfur, and increase in charge and discharge time with increase in pipe diameter. A preferred pipe diameter can be determined for target applications based on their requirements and these competing trade-offs. A validated fundamental correlation for Nusselt number as a function of Rayleigh number for charge and discharge is developed that can be used to design the sulfur-based thermal storage system for transient operation