The sensitivity of satellite microwave observations to liquid water in the Antarctic snowpack

Surface melting on the Antarctic Ice Sheet has been monitored by satellite microwave radiometry for over 40 years. Despite this long perspective, our understanding of the microwave emission from wet snow is still limited, preventing the full exploitation of these observations to study supraglacial hydrology. Using the Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT) model, this study investigates the sensitivity of microwave brightness temperature to snow liquid water content at frequencies from 1.4 to 37 GHz. We first determine the snowpack properties for eight selected coastal sites by retrieving profiles of density, grain size and ice layers from microwave observations when the snowpack is dry during wintertime. Second, a series of brightness temperature simulations is run with added water. The results show that (i) a small quantity of liquid water (≈0.5 kg m−2) can be detected, but the actual quantity cannot be retrieved out of the full range of possible water quantities; (ii) the detection of a buried wet layer is possible up to a maximum depth of 1 to 6 m depending on the frequency (6–37 GHz) and on the snow properties (grain size, density) at each site; (iii) surface ponds and water-saturated areas may prevent melt detection, but the current coverage of these waterbodies in the large satellite field of view is presently too small in Antarctica to have noticeable effects; and (iv) at 1.4 GHz, while the simulations are less reliable, we found a weaker sensitivity to liquid water and the maximal depth of detection is relatively shallow (&lt;10 m) compared to the typical radiation penetration depth in dry firn (≈1000 m) at this low frequency. These numerical results pave the way for the development of improved multi-frequency algorithms to detect melt intensity and the depth of liquid water below the surface in the Antarctic snowpack.</p

Direct measurements of ice-shelf flexure caused by surface meltwater ponding and drainage.

Global sea-level rise is caused, in part, by more rapid ice discharge from Antarctica, following the removal of the restraining forces of floating ice-shelves after their break-up. A trigger of ice-shelf break-up is thought to be stress variations associated with surface meltwater ponding and drainage, causing flexure and fracture. But until now, there have been no direct measurements of these processes. Here, we present field data from the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica, showing that the filling, to ~2 m depth, and subsequent draining, by overflow and channel incision, of four surface lakes causes pronounced and immediate ice-shelf flexure over multiple-week timescales. The magnitude of the vertical ice-shelf deflection reaches maxima of ~1 m at the lake centres, declining to zero at distances of <500 m. Our results should be used to guide development of continent-wide ice-sheet models, which currently do not simulate ice-shelf break-up due to meltwater loading and unloading.This work was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under award PLR-1443126 to the University of Chicago, a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship (ECF-2014-412) and a CIRES Postdoctoral Visiting Fellowship, both awarded to A.F.B., and a NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship (NNX15AN44H) awarded to G.J.M

Supraglacial lakes on the Larsen B ice shelf, Antarctica, and at Paakitsoq, West Greenland:A Comparative Study

This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Ingenta Connect at http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/igsoc/agl/2014/00000055/00000066/art00001.Supraglacial meltwater lakes trigger ice-shelf break-up and modulate seasonal ice\ud sheet flow, and are thus agents by which warming is transmitted to the Antarctic\ud and Greenland ice sheets. To characterize supraglacial lake variability we perform a\ud comparative analysis of lake geometry and depth in two distinct regions, one on the\ud pre-collapse (2002) Larsen B Ice Shelf, and the other in the ablation zone of\ud Paakitsoq, a land-terminating region of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Compared to\ud Paakitsoq, lakes on the Larsen B Ice Shelf cover a greater proportion of surface area\ud (5.3% vs. 1%), but are shallower and more uniform in area. Other aspects of lake\ud geometry, such as eccentricity, degree of convexity (solidity) and orientation, are\ud relatively similar between the two regions. We attribute the notable difference in\ud lake density and depth between ice-shelf and grounded ice to the fact that ice shelves\ud have flatter surfaces and less distinct drainage basins. Ice shelves also possess more\ud stimuli to small-scale, localized surface elevation variability due to the various\ud structural features that yield small variations in thickness and which float at\ud different levels by Archimedes? principle.We acknowledge the support of the U.S. National Science Foundation under grant ANT-0944248

Antarctic-wide ice-shelf firn emulation reveals robust future firn air depletion signal for the Antarctic Peninsula

Antarctic firn is critical for ice-shelf stability because it stores meltwater that would otherwise pond on the surface. Ponded meltwater increases the risk of hydrofracture and subsequent potential ice-shelf collapse. Here, we use output from a firn model to build a computationally simpler emulator that uses a random forest to predict ice-shelf effective firn air content, which considers impermeable ice layers that make deeper parts of the firn inaccessible to meltwater, based on climate conditions. We find that summer air temperature and precipitation are the most important climatic features for predicting firn air content. Based on the climatology from an ensemble of Earth System Models, we find that the Larsen C Ice Shelf is most at risk of firn air depletion during the 21st century, while the larger Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves are unlikely to experience substantial firn air content change. This work demonstrates the utility of emulation for computationally efficient estimations of complicated ice sheet processes. &nbsp;</p

Ice dynamic response to two modes of surface lake drainage on the Greenland ice sheet

Supraglacial lake drainage on the Greenland ice sheet opens surface-to-bed connections, reduces basal friction, and temporarily increases ice flow velocities by up to an order of magnitude. Existing field-based observations of lake drainages and their impact on ice dynamics are limited, and focus on one specific draining mechanism. Here, we report and analyse global positioning system measurements of ice velocity and elevation made at five locations surrounding two lakes that drained by different mechanisms and produced different dynamic responses. For the lake that drained slowly (>24 h) by overtopping its basin, delivering water via a channel to a pre-existing moulin, speedup and uplift were less than half those associated with a lake that drained rapidly (~2 h) through hydrofracturing and the creation of new moulins in the lake bottom. Our results suggest that the mode and associated rate of lake drainage govern the impact on ice dynamics

A new model for supraglacial hydrology evolution and drainage for the Greenland ice sheet (SHED v1.0)

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is losing mass as the climate warms through both increased meltwater runoff and ice discharge at marine terminating sectors. At the ice sheet surface, meltwater runoff forms a dynamic supraglacial hydrological system which includes stream/river networks and large supraglacial lakes (SGLs). Streams/rivers can route water into crevasses, or into supraglacial lakes with crevasses underneath, both of which can then hydrofracture to the ice sheet base, providing a mechanism for the surface meltwater to access the bed. Understanding where, when and how much meltwater is transferred to the bed is important because variability in meltwater supply to the bed can increase ice flow speeds, potentially impacting the hypsometry of the ice sheet in grounded sectors, and iceberg discharge to the ocean. Here we present a new, physically-based, supraglacial hydrology model for the GrIS that is able to simulate a) surface meltwater routing and SGL filling, b) rapid meltwater drainage to the ice-sheet bed via the hydrofracture of surface crevasses both in, and outside of, SGLs, c) slow SGL drainage via overflow in supraglacial meltwater channels and, by offline coupling with a second model, d) the freezing and unfreezing of SGLs from autumn to spring. We call the model Supraglacial Hydrology Evolution and Drainage (or SHED). We apply the model to three study regions in South West Greenland between 2015 and 2019 inclusive and evaluate its performance with respect to observed supraglacial lake extents, and proglacial discharge measurements. We show that the model reproduces 80 % of observed lake locations, and provides good agreement with observations in terms of the temporal evolution of lake extent. Modelled moulin density values are in keeping with those previously published and seasonal and inter-annual variability in proglacial discharge agrees well with that observed, though the observations lag the model by a few days since they include transit time through the subglacial system and the model does not. Our simulations suggest that lake drainage behaviours may be more complex than traditional models suggest, with lakes in our model draining through a combination of both overflow and hydrofracture, and some lakes draining only partially and then refreezing. This suggests that in order to simulate the evolution of Greenland&rsquo;s surface hydrological system with fidelity, then a model that includes all of these processes needs to be used. In future work we will couple our model to a subglacial model and an ice flow model, and thus use our estimates of where, when and how much meltwater gets to the bed to understand the consequences for ice flow.</p

Calibration and evaluation of a high-resolution surface mass-balance model for Paakitsoq, West Greenland

Modelling the hydrology of the Greenland ice sheet, including the filling and drainage of supraglacial lakes, requires melt inputs generated at high spatial and temporal resolution. Here we apply a high spatial (100 m) and temporal (1 hour) mass-balance model to a 450 km2 subset of the Paakitsoq region, West Greenland. The model is calibrated by adjusting the values for parameters of fresh snow density, threshold temperature for solid/liquid precipitation and elevation-dependent precipitation gradient to minimize the error between modelled output and surface height and albedo measurements from three Greenland Climate Network stations for the mass-balance years 2000/01 and 2004/05. Bestfit parameter values are consistent between the two years at 400 kg m–3, 2° C and +14% (100 m)–1, respectively. Model performance is evaluated, first, by comparing modelled snow and ice distribution with that derived from Landsat-7 ETM+ satellite imagery using normalized-difference snow index classification and supervised image thresholding; and second, by comparing modelled albedo with that retrieved from the MODIS sensor MOD10A1 product. Calculation of mass-balance components indicates that 6% of surface meltwater and rainwater refreezes in the snowpack and does not become runoff, such that refreezing accounts for 31% of the net accumulation

Contrasting regional variability of buried meltwater extent over 2 years across the Greenland Ice Sheet

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) rapid mass loss is primarily driven by an increase in meltwater runoff, which highlights the importance of understanding the formation, evolution, and impact of meltwater features on the ice sheet. Buried lakes are meltwater features that contain liquid water and exist under layers of snow, firn, and/or ice. These lakes are invisible in optical imagery, challenging the analysis of their evolution and implication for larger GrIS dynamics and mass change. Here, we present a method that uses a convolutional neural network, a deep learning method, to automatically detect buried lakes across the GrIS. For the years 2018 and 2019 (which represent low- and high-melt years, respectively), we compare total areal extent of both buried and surface lakes across six regions, and we use a regional climate model to explain the spatial and temporal differences. We find that the total buried lake extent after the 2019 melt season is 56&thinsp;% larger than after the 2018 melt season across the entire ice sheet. Northern Greenland has the largest increase in buried lake extent after the 2019 melt season, which we attribute to late-summer surface melt and high autumn temperatures. We also provide evidence that different processes are responsible for buried lake formation in different regions of the ice sheet. For example, in southwest Greenland, buried lakes often appear on the surface during the previous melt season, indicating that these meltwater features form when surface lakes partially freeze and become insulated as snowfall buries them. Conversely, in southeast Greenland, most buried lakes never appear on the surface, indicating that these features may form due to downward percolation of meltwater and/or subsurface penetration of shortwave radiation. We provide support for these processes via the use of a physics-based snow model. This study provides additional perspective on the potential role of meltwater on GrIS dynamics and mass loss. &nbsp;</p

Supraglacial lakes on the Larsen B ice shelf, Antarctica, and at Paakitsoq, West Greenland:A Comparative Study

This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Ingenta Connect at http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/igsoc/agl/2014/00000055/00000066/art00001.Supraglacial meltwater lakes trigger ice-shelf break-up and modulate seasonal ice\ud sheet flow, and are thus agents by which warming is transmitted to the Antarctic\ud and Greenland ice sheets. To characterize supraglacial lake variability we perform a\ud comparative analysis of lake geometry and depth in two distinct regions, one on the\ud pre-collapse (2002) Larsen B Ice Shelf, and the other in the ablation zone of\ud Paakitsoq, a land-terminating region of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Compared to\ud Paakitsoq, lakes on the Larsen B Ice Shelf cover a greater proportion of surface area\ud (5.3% vs. 1%), but are shallower and more uniform in area. Other aspects of lake\ud geometry, such as eccentricity, degree of convexity (solidity) and orientation, are\ud relatively similar between the two regions. We attribute the notable difference in\ud lake density and depth between ice-shelf and grounded ice to the fact that ice shelves\ud have flatter surfaces and less distinct drainage basins. Ice shelves also possess more\ud stimuli to small-scale, localized surface elevation variability due to the various\ud structural features that yield small variations in thickness and which float at\ud different levels by Archimedes? principle.We acknowledge the support of the U.S. National Science Foundation under grant ANT-0944248

The 32-year record-high surface melt in 2019/2020 on the northern George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

In the 2019/2020 austral summer, the surface melt duration and extent on the northern George VI Ice Shelf (GVIIS) was exceptional compared to the 31 previous summers of distinctly lower melt. This finding is based on analysis of near-continuous 41-year satellite microwave radiometer and scatterometer data, which are sensitive to meltwater on the ice shelf surface and in the near-surface snow. Using optical satellite imagery from Landsat 8 (2013 to 2020) and Sentinel-2 (2017 to 2020), record volumes of surface meltwater ponding were also observed on the northern GVIIS in 2019/2020, with 23&thinsp;% of the surface area covered by 0.62&thinsp;km3 of ponded meltwater on 19&nbsp;January. These exceptional melt and surface ponding conditions in 2019/2020 were driven by sustained air temperatures &ge;0&thinsp;∘C for anomalously long periods (55 to 90&thinsp;h) from late November onwards, which limited meltwater refreezing. The sustained warm periods were likely driven by warm, low-speed (&le;7.5&thinsp;m&thinsp;s&minus;1) northwesterly and northeasterly winds and not by foehn wind conditions, which were only present for 9&thinsp;h total in the 2019/2020 melt season. Increased surface ponding on ice shelves may threaten their stability through increased potential for hydrofracture initiation; a risk that may increase due to firn air content depletion in response to near-surface melting. Please read the corrigendum first before continuing. &nbsp;</p