Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

The Performance and Calibration of the CRAFT Fly's Eye Fast Radio Burst Survey

Since January 2017, the Commensal Real-time ASKAP Fast Transients survey (CRAFT) has been utilising commissioning antennas of the Australian SKA Pathfinder (ASKAP) to survey for fast radio bursts (FRBs) in fly's eye mode. This is the first extensive astronomical survey using phased array feeds (PAFs), and a total of 20 FRBs have been reported. Here we present a calculation of the sensitivity and total exposure of this survey, using the pulsars B1641-45 (J1644-4559) and B0833-45 (J0835-4510, i.e.\ Vela) as calibrators. The design of the survey allows us to benchmark effects due to PAF beamshape, antenna-dependent system noise, radio-frequency interference, and fluctuations during commissioning on timescales from one hour to a year. Observation time, solid-angle, and search efficiency are calculated as a function of FRB fluence threshold. Using this metric, effective survey exposures and sensitivities are calculated as a function of the source counts distribution. The implied FRB rate is significantly lower than the $37$\,sky$^{-1}$\,day$^{-1}$ calculated using nominal exposures and sensitivities for this same sample by \citet{craft_nature}. At the Euclidean power-law index of $-1.5$, the rate is $10.7_{-1.8}^{+2.7}\,{\rm (sys)} \, \pm \, 3\,{\rm (stat)}$\,sky$^{-1}$\,day$^{-1}$ above a threshold of $57\pm6\,{\rm (sys)}$\,Jy\,ms, while for the best-fit index for this sample of $-2.1$, it is $16.6_{-1.5}^{+1.9} \,{\rm (sys)}\, \pm 4.7\,{\rm (stat)}$\,sky$^{-1}$\,day$^{-1}$ above a threshold of $41.6\pm1.5\,{\rm (sys)}$\,Jy\,ms. This strongly suggests that these calculations be performed for other FRB-hunting experiments, allowing meaningful comparisons to be made between them.Comment: 21 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in PAS

Optical Properties of High-Frequency Radio Sources from the Australia Telescope 20 GHz (AT20G) Survey

Our current understanding of radio-loud AGN comes predominantly from studies at frequencies of 5 GHz and below. With the recent completion of the Australia Telescope 20 GHz (AT20G) survey, we can now gain insight into the high-frequency radio properties of AGN. This paper presents supplementary information on the AT20G sources in the form of optical counterparts and redshifts. Optical counterparts were identified using the SuperCOSMOS database and redshifts were found from either the 6dF Galaxy survey or the literature. We also report 144 new redshifts. For AT20G sources outside the Galactic plane, 78.5% have optical identifications and 30.9% have redshift information. The optical identification rate also increases with increasing flux density. Targets which had optical spectra available were examined to obtain a spectral classification. There appear to be two distinct AT20G populations; the high luminosity quasars that are generally associated with point-source optical counterparts and exhibit strong emission lines in the optical spectrum, and the lower luminosity radio galaxies that are generally associated with passive galaxies in both the optical images and spectroscopic properties. It is suggested that these different populations can be associated with different accretion modes (cold-mode or hot-mode). We find that the cold-mode sources have a steeper spectral index and produce more luminous radio lobes, but generally reside in smaller host galaxies than their hot-mode counterparts. This can be attributed to the fact that they are accreting material more efficiently. Lastly, we compare the AT20G survey with the S-cubed semi-empirical (S3-SEX) models and conclude that the S3-SEX models need refining to correctly model the compact cores of AGN. The AT20G survey provides the ideal sample to do this.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA