Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance

Decision‐making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream‐flows in north‐eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Nitrous oxide emissions from the Arabian Sea: A synthesis

We computed high-resolution (1º latitude x 1º longitude) seasonal and annual nitrous oxide (N2O) concentration fields for the Arabian Sea surface layer using a database containing more than 2400 values measured between December 1977 and July 1997. N2O concentrations are highest during the southwest (SW) monsoon along the southern Indian continental shelf. Annual emissions range from 0.33 to 0.70 Tg N2O and are dominated by fluxes from coastal regions during the SW and northeast monsoons. Our revised estimate for the annual N2O flux from the Arabian Sea is much more tightly constrained than the previous consensus derived using averaged in-situ data from a smaller number of studies. However, the tendency to focus on measurements in locally restricted features in combination with insufficient seasonal data coverage leads to considerable uncertainties of the concentration fields and thus in the flux estimates, especially in the coastal zones of the northern and eastern Arabian Sea. The overall mean relative error of the annual N2O emissions from the Arabian Sea was estimated to be at least 65%

Energy balance closure for the LITFASS-2003 experiment

In the first part, this paper synthesises the main results from a series of previous studies on the closure of the local energy balance at low-vegetation sites during the LITFASS-2003 experiment. A residual of up to 25% of the available energy has been found which cannot be fully explained either by the measurement uncertainty of the single components of the surface energy balance or by the length of the flux-averaging period. In the second part, secondary circulations due to heterogeneities in the surface characteristics (roughness, thermal and moisture properties) are discussed as a possible cause for the observed energy balance non-closure. This hypothesis seems to be supported from the fluxes derived from area-averaging measurement techniques (scintillometers, aircraft)

Nitrous oxide emissions from the Arabian Sea: A synthesis

We computed high-resolution (1º latitude x  1º longitude) seasonal and annual nitrous oxide (N₂O) concentration fields for the Arabian Sea surface layer using a database containing more than 2400 values measured between December 1977 and July 1997. N₂O concentrations are highest during the southwest (SW) monsoon along the southern Indian continental shelf. Annual emissions range from 0.33 to 0.70 Tg N₂O and are dominated by fluxes from coastal regions during the SW and northeast monsoons. Our revised estimate for the annual N₂O flux from the Arabian Sea is much more tightly constrained than the previous consensus derived using averaged in-situ data from a smaller number of studies. However, the tendency to focus on measurements in locally restricted features in combination with insufficient seasonal data coverage leads to considerable uncertainties of the concentration fields and thus in the flux estimates, especially in the coastal zones of the northern and eastern Arabian Sea. The overall mean relative error of the annual N₂O emissions from the Arabian Sea was estimated to be at least 65%

Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide

We use transient time distributions calculated from tracer data together with in situ measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O) to estimate the concentration of biologically produced N2O and N2O production rates in the ocean on a global scale. Our approach to estimate the N2O production rates integrates the effects of potentially varying production and decomposition mechanisms along the transport path of a water mass.We estimate that the oceanic N2O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification. Shelf areas may account for only a negligible fraction of the global production; however, estuarine sources and coastal upwelling of N2O are not taken into account in our study. The largest amount of subsurface N2O is produced in the upper 500 m of the water column. The estimated global annual subsurface N2O production ranges from 3.1+/-0.9 to 3.4+/-0.9 Tg N yr^-1. This is in agreement with estimates of the global N2O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N2O source in the mixed layer is unlikely. The potential future development of the oceanic N2O source in view of the ongoing changes of the ocean environment (deoxygenation, warming, eutrophication and acidification) is discussed

Dissolved methane during hypoxic events at the Boknis Eck Time Series Station (Eckernförde Bay, SW Baltic Sea)

Dissolved CH4 was measured in the water column at the Boknis Eck (BE) time series station in the Eckernförde Bay (SW Baltic Sea) on a monthly basis from June 2006 to November 2008. The water column at BE was always supersaturated with CH4 and, therefore, CH4 was released to the atmosphere throughout the sampling period: the mean CH4 surface (1 m) saturation at BE was 554±317%. A pulse of enhanced CH4 emissions occurs when the CH4 accumulation in the hypoxic bottom layer during summer is terminated in late summer/autumn. We did not detect a straightforward relationship between periods of enhanced CH4 in the bottom layer and hypoxic events at BE: the sedimentary release of CH4 seemed to be mainly triggered by sedimenting organic material from phytoplankton blooms. We conclude that future CH4 emissions from BE will be determined by the intensity of phytoplankton blooms, which in turn will be influenced by eutrophication. However, hypoxic events seem to have only a modulating effect on the enhancement of sedimentary methanogenesis and the subsequent release of CH4 to the water column

N2 fixation in eddies of the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean

Mesoscale eddies play a major role in controlling ocean biogeochemistry. By impacting nutrient availability and water column ventilation, they are of critical importance for oceanic primary production. In the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean off Peru, where a large and persistent oxygen deficient zone is present, mesoscale processes have been reported to occur frequently. However, investigations on their biological activity are mostly based on model simulations, and direct measurements of carbon and dinitrogen (N2) fixation are scarce. We examined an open ocean cyclonic eddy and two anticyclonic mode water eddies: a coastal one and an open ocean one in the waters off Peru along a section at 16° S in austral summer 2012. Molecular data and bioassay incubations point towards a difference between the active diazotrophic communities present in the cyclonic eddy and the anticyclonic mode water eddies. In the cyclonic eddy, highest rates of N2 fixation were measured in surface waters but no N2 fixation signal was detected at intermediate water depths. In contrast, both anticyclonic mode water eddies showed pronounced maxima in N2 fixation below the euphotic zone as evidenced by rate measurements and geochemical data. N2 fixation and carbon (C) fixation were higher in the young coastal mode water eddy compared to the older offshore mode water eddy. A co-occurrence between N2 fixation and biogenic N2, an indicator for N loss, indicated a link between N loss and N2 fixation in the mode water eddies, which was not observed for the cyclonic eddy. The comparison of two consecutive surveys of the coastal mode water eddy in November and December 2012 revealed also a reduction of N2 and C fixation at intermediate depths along with a reduction in chlorophyll by half, mirroring an aging effect in this eddy. Our data indicate an important role for anticyclonic mode water eddies in stimulating N2 fixation and thus supplying N offshore

Nitrous oxide dynamics in low oxygen regions of the Pacific: insights from the MEMENTO database

The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) is believed to be one of the largest marine sources of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide N2O). Future N2Oemissions from the ETP are highly uncertain because oxygen minimum zones are expected to expand, affecting both regional production and consumption of N2O. Here we assess three primary uncertainties in how N2O may respond to changing O2 levels: (1) the relationship between N2O production and O2 (is it linear or exponential at low O2 concentrations?), (2) the cutoff point at which net N2O production switches to net N2O consumption (uncertainties in this parameterization can lead to differences in model ETP N2O concentrations of more than 20%), and (3) the rate of net N2O consumption at low O2. Based on the MEMENTO database, which is the largest N2O dataset currently available, we find that N2O production in the ETP increases linearly rather than exponentially with decreasing O2. Additionally, net N2O consumption switches to net N2O production at ~ 10 μM O2, a value in line with recent studies that suggest consumption occurs on a larger scale than previously thought. N2O consumption is on the order of 0.129 mmol N2O m−3 yr−1 in the Peru–Chile Undercurrent. Based on these findings, it appears that recent studies substantially overestimated N2O production in the ETP. In light of expected deoxygenation, future N2O production is still uncertain, but due to higher-than-expected consumption levels, it is possible that N2Oconcentrations may decrease rather than increase as oxygen minimum zones expand

Improving temperature‐based predictions of the timing of flowering in cotton

Key management recommendations for cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) management require estimates of the timing of crop phenology. Most commonly growing day degree (DD) (thermal time) approaches are used. Currently, across many cotton production regions, there is no consistent approach to predicting first square and flower timing. Day degree approaches vary considerably, with base thresholds different (12.0–15.6 °C) with no consistency using an optimum temperature threshold (i.e., temperature where development ceases to increase). As cotton is grown in variable and changing climates, and cultivars change, there is a need to ensure the accuracy of this approach for predicting timing of flowering for assisting cotton management. In this study new functions to predict first square and first flower were developed and validated using data collected in multiple seasons and regions (Australia and the United States). Earlier controlled environment studies that monitored crop development were used to assess in more detail how temperatures were affecting early cotton development. New DD functions developed predicted first square and first flower better than the existing Australian and U.S. approaches. The best performing functions had base temperatures like those of existing U.S. functions (15.6 °C) and an optimum threshold temperature of 32.0 °C. New universal DD targets for first square (343 DD [°C]) and first flower (584 DD) were developed. Controlled environment studies supported this base temperature outcome; however, it was less clear that 32.0 °C was the optimum threshold temperature from these data. Precise predictions of cotton development will facilitate accurate growth stage assessments and hence better cotton management decisions