Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data

Primary Signet-Ring Cell Adenocarcinoma of the Urinary Bladder Treated with Partial Cystectomy: A Case Report and Review of the Literature

Primary signet-ring cell carcinoma is a variant of adenocarcinoma which is extremely rare, associated with poor prognosis and generally found to be resistant to chemotherapy and radiotherapy. We report a case of primary signet-ring cell carcinoma of the bladder which was successfully treated with partial cystectomy. A 71-year-old female with a history of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and ischaemic heart disease presented with painless haematuria for 2 months’ duration. The abdominal ultrasonography showed a localised polypoidal vesical growth arising from the bladder dome. Cystoscopy revealed an exophytic solid tumour in the anterior fundal wall. A deep transurethral resection of bladder tumour was done and histology revealed an adenocarcinoma composed of mucinous and signet-ring cell components. Later, considering the patient’s age and the poor general condition, a partial cystectomy was done. Follow-up cystoscopy and ultrasonography were done at 12 months and there was no evidence of tumour recurrence and the patient is currently symptom-free. Partial cystectomy may be considered in patients with localised tumour without evidence of metastasis and poor general condition. Regular cystoscopies and ultrasound imaging are necessary for follow-up and early identification of recurrences

Exploring bacterial community composition and immune gene expression of European eel larvae (<i>Anguilla anguilla</i>) in relation to first-feeding diets

: European eel (Anguilla anguilla) is a commercially important species for fisheries and aquaculture in Europe and the attempt to close the lifecycle in captivity is still at pioneering stage. The first feeding stage of this species is characterized by a critical period between 20 to 24 days post hatch (dph), which is associated with mortalities, indicating the point of no return. We hypothesized that this critical period might also be associated with larvae-bacterial interactions and the larval immune status. To test this, bacterial community composition and expression of immune and stress-related genes of hatchery-produced larvae were explored from the end of endogenous feeding (9 dph) until 28 dph, in response to three experimental first-feeding diets (Diet 1, Diet 2 and Diet 3). Changes in the water bacterial community composition were also followed. Results revealed that the larval stress/repair mechanism was activated during this critical period, marked by an upregulated expression of the hsp90 gene, independent of the diet fed. At the same time, a shift towards a potentially detrimental larval bacterial community was observed in all dietary groups. Here, a significant reduction in evenness of the larval bacterial community was observed, and several amplicon sequence variants belonging to potentially harmful bacterial genera were more abundant. This indicates that detrimental larvae-bacteria interactions were likely involved in the mortality observed. Beyond the critical period, the highest survival was registered for larvae fed Diet 3. Interestingly, genes encoding for pathogen recognition receptor TLR18 and complement component C1QC were upregulated in this group, potentially indicating a higher immunocompetency that facilitated a more successful handling of the harmful bacteria that dominated the bacterial community of larvae on 22 dph, ultimately leading to better survival, compared to the other two groups

Exploring first-feeding diets for European eel larval culture: Insights at morphological, nutritional, and molecular levels.

Closing the life cycle of European eel (Anguilla anguilla) in captivity is targeted to provide a sustainable, year-round supply of juveniles for aquaculture. Present focus is on the nutritional requirements during the larval first-feeding period. In this study, three experimental diets were tested on hatchery-produced European eel larvae from the onset of the first-feeding stage commencing 10 days post hatch (dph) until 28 dph. Larval mortality was recorded daily, while sampling was conducted at regular intervals to record larval biometrics and analyze the expression of genes related to digestion, appetite, feed intake and growth. Two periods of high mortality were identified: the first appeared shortly after introduction of feeds (10-12 dph), while the second occurred 20-24 dph, indicating the "point of no return". This interpretation was supported at the molecular level by the expression of the gene encoding the "hunger hormone" ghrelin (ghrl) that peaked at 22 dph in all dietary trials, suggesting that most larvae were fasting. However, in larvae fed diet 3, ghrl expression was downregulated beyond 22 dph, which indicated that those larvae were no longer starving at this stage, while upregulation of genes encoding the major digestive enzymes (try, tgl, and amyl2a) advocated their healthy development. Moreover, for larvae fed diet 3, the expression of those genes as well as genes for feed intake (pomca) and growth (gh) continued to increase towards 28 dph. These results together with the registered highest survival, largest dry weight increase, and enhanced biometrics (length and body area) pointed to diet 3 as the best-performing. As a whole, this first-feeding study represents a landmark being the first to document European eel larval growth and survival beyond the point of no return, providing novel insights into the molecular development of digestive functions during the first feeding stage

Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. Following provision of historical trend data on the domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N=86 teams/359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts based on new data six months later (Tournament 2; N=120 teams/546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists? forecasts were on average no more accurate than simple statistical models (historical means, random walk, or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N=802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models, and based predictions on prior data

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models

Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. Following provision of historical trend data on the domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N=86 teams/359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts based on new data six months later (Tournament 2; N=120 teams/546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than simple statistical models (historical means, random walk, or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N=802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models, and based predictions on prior data