Joint inversion estimate of regional glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica considering a lateral varying Earth structure (ESA STSE Project REGINA)

A major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry, and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry, is the poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Although much progress has been made in consistently modelling the ice-sheet evolution throughout the last glacial cycle, as well as the induced bedrock deformation caused by these load changes, forward models of GIA remain ambiguous due to the lack of observational constraints on the ice sheet's past extent and thickness and mantle rheology beneath the continent. As an alternative to forward modelling GIA, we estimate GIA from multiple space-geodetic observations: GRACE, Envisat/ICESat and GPS. Making use of the different sensitivities of the respective satellite observations to current and past surface mass (ice mass) change and solid Earth processes, we estimate GIA based on viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing. We calculate and distribute the viscoelastic response functions according to estimates of the variability of lithosphere thickness and mantle viscosity in Antarctica. We compare our GIA estimate with published GIA corrections and evaluate its impact in determining the ice mass balance in Antarctica from GRACE and satellite altimetry. Particular focus is applied to the Amundsen Sea Sector in West Antarctica, where uplift rates of several cm/yr have been measured by GPS. We show that most of this uplift is caused by the rapid viscoelastic response to recent ice-load changes, enabled by the presence of a low-viscosity upper mantle in West Antarctica. This paper presents the second and final contribution summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study, REGINA, (www.regina-science.eu)

Understanding the influences on successful quality improvement in emergency general surgery: learning from the RCS Chole-QuIC project.

BACKGROUND: Acute gallstone disease is the highest volume Emergency General Surgical presentation in the UK. Recent data indicate wide variations in the quality of care provided across the country, with national guidance for care delivery not implemented in most UK hospitals. Against this backdrop, the Royal College of Surgeons of England set up a 13-hospital quality improvement collaborative (Chole-QuIC) to support clinical teams to reduce time to surgery for patients with acute gallstone disease requiring emergency cholecystectomy. METHODS: Prospective, mixed-methods process evaluation to answer the following: (1) how was the collaborative delivered by the faculty and received, understood and enacted by the participants; (2) what influenced teams' ability to improve care for patients requiring emergency cholecystectomy? We collected and analysed a range of data including field notes, ethnographic observations of meetings, and project documentation. Analysis was based on the framework approach, informed by Normalisation Process Theory, and involved the creation of comparative case studies based on hospital performance during the project. RESULTS: Chole-QuIC was delivered as planned and was well received and understood by participants. Four hospitals were identified as highly successful, based upon a substantial increase in the number of patients having surgery in line with national guidance. Conversely, four hospitals were identified as challenged, achieving no significant improvement. The comparative analysis indicate that six inter-related influences appeared most associated with improvement: (1) achieving clarity of purpose amongst site leads and key stakeholders; (2) capacity to lead and effective project support; (3) ideas to action; (4) learning from own and others' experience; (5) creating additional capacity to do emergency cholecystectomies; and (6) coordinating/managing the patient pathway. CONCLUSION: Collaborative-based quality improvement is a viable strategy for emergency surgery but success requires the deployment of effective clinical strategies in conjunction with improvement strategies. In particular, achieving clarity of purpose about proposed changes amongst key stakeholders was a vital precursor to improvement, enabling the creation of additional surgical capacity and new pathways to be implemented effectively. Protected time, testing ideas, and the ability to learn quickly from data and experience were associated with greater impact within this cohort

Modelled glacier dynamics over the last quarter of a century at Jakobshavn Isbræ

Observations over the past 2 decades show substantial ice loss associated with the speed-up of marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland. Here we use a regional three-dimensional outlet glacier model to simulate the behaviour of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) located in western Greenland. Our approach is to model and understand the recent behaviour of JI with a physical process-based model. Using atmospheric forcing and an ocean parametrization we tune our model to reproduce observed frontal changes of JI during 1990–2014. In our simulations, most of the JI retreat during 1990–2014 is driven by the ocean parametrization used and the glacier's subsequent response, which is largely governed by bed geometry. In general, the study shows significant progress in modelling the temporal variability of the flow at JI. Our results suggest that the overall variability in modelled horizontal velocities is a response to variations in terminus position. The model simulates two major accelerations that are consistent with observations of changes in glacier terminus. The first event occurred in 1998 and was triggered by a retreat of the front and moderate thinning of JI prior to 1998. The second event, which started in 2003 and peaked in the summer 2004, was triggered by the final break-up of the floating tongue. This break-up reduced the buttressing at the JI terminus that resulted in further thinning. As the terminus retreated over a reverse bed slope into deeper water, sustained high velocities over the last decade have been observed at JI. Our model provides evidence that the 1998 and 2003 flow accelerations are most likely initiated by the ocean parametrization used but JI's subsequent dynamic response was governed by its own bed geometry. We are unable to reproduce the observed 2010–2012 terminus retreat in our simulations. We attribute this limitation to either inaccuracies in basal topography or to misrepresentations of the climatic forcings that were applied. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate the previously observed increase in mass loss through 2014

Accelerating Ice Loss From Peripheral Glaciers in North Greenland

In recent decades, Greenland's peripheral glaciers have experienced large‐scale mass loss, resulting in a substantial contribution to sea level rise. While their total area of Greenland ice cover is relatively small (4%), their mass loss is disproportionally large compared to the Greenland ice sheet. Satellite altimetry from Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and ICESat‐2 shows that mass loss from Greenland's peripheral glaciers increased from 27.2 ± 6.2 Gt/yr (February 2003–October 2009) to 42.3 ± 6.2 Gt/yr (October 2018–December 2021). These relatively small glaciers now constitute 11 ± 2% of Greenland's ice loss and contribute to global sea level rise. In the period October 2018–December 2021, mass loss increased by a factor of four for peripheral glaciers in North Greenland. While peripheral glacier mass loss is widespread, we also observe a complex regional pattern where increases in precipitation at high altitudes have partially counteracted increases in melt at low altitude

Recurring dynamically-induced thinning during 1985-2010 on Upernavik Isstrøm, West Greenland

This is the publisher's version, also available electronically from "http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com".1] Many glaciers along the southeast and northwest coasts of Greenland have accelerated, increasing the ice sheet's contribution to global sea-level rise. In this article, we map elevation changes on Upernavik Isstrøm (UI), West Greenland, during 2003to 2009 using high-resolution ice, cloud and land elevation satellite laser altimeter data supplemented with altimeter surveys from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper during 2002 to 2010. To assess thinning prior to 2002, we analyze aerial photographs from 1985. We document at least two distinct periods of dynamically induced ice loss during 1985 to 2010 characterized by a rapid retreat of the calving front, increased ice speed, and lowering of the ice surface. The first period occurred before 1991, whereas the latter occurred during 2005 to 2009. Analyses of air and sea-surface temperature suggest a combination of relatively warm air and ocean water as a potential trigger for the dynamically induced ice loss. We estimate a total catchment-wide ice-mass loss of UI caused by the two events of 72.3 ± 15.8 Gt during 1985 to 2010, whereas the total melt-induced ice-mass loss during this same period is 19.8 ± 2.8 Gt. Thus, 79% of the total ice-mass loss of the UI catchment was caused by ice dynamics, indicating the importance of including dynamically induced ice loss in the total mass change budget of the Greenland ice sheet

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Geothermal heat flux reveals the Iceland hotspot track underneath Greenland

Curie depths beneath Greenland are revealed by spectral analysis of data from the World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map 2. A thermal model of the lithosphere then provides a corresponding geothermal heat flux map. This new map exhibits significantly higher frequency but lower amplitude variation than earlier heat flux maps, and provides an important boundary condition for numerical ice‐sheet models and interpretation of borehole temperature profiles. In addition, it reveals new geologically significant features. Notably, we identify a prominent quasi‐linear elevated geothermal heat flux anomaly running northwest‐southeast across Greenland. We interpret this feature to be the relic of the passage of the Iceland hotspot from 80 to 50 Ma. The expected partial melting of the lithosphere and magmatic underplating or intrusion into the lower crust is compatible with models of observed satellite gravity data and recent seismic observations. Our geological interpretation has potentially significant implications for the geodynamic evolution of Greenland

Understanding the influences on successful quality improvement in emergency general surgery: learning from the RCS Chole-QuIC project

Abstract: Background: Acute gallstone disease is the highest volume Emergency General Surgical presentation in the UK. Recent data indicate wide variations in the quality of care provided across the country, with national guidance for care delivery not implemented in most UK hospitals. Against this backdrop, the Royal College of Surgeons of England set up a 13-hospital quality improvement collaborative (Chole-QuIC) to support clinical teams to reduce time to surgery for patients with acute gallstone disease requiring emergency cholecystectomy. Methods: Prospective, mixed-methods process evaluation to answer the following: (1) how was the collaborative delivered by the faculty and received, understood and enacted by the participants; (2) what influenced teams’ ability to improve care for patients requiring emergency cholecystectomy? We collected and analysed a range of data including field notes, ethnographic observations of meetings, and project documentation. Analysis was based on the framework approach, informed by Normalisation Process Theory, and involved the creation of comparative case studies based on hospital performance during the project. Results: Chole-QuIC was delivered as planned and was well received and understood by participants. Four hospitals were identified as highly successful, based upon a substantial increase in the number of patients having surgery in line with national guidance. Conversely, four hospitals were identified as challenged, achieving no significant improvement. The comparative analysis indicate that six inter-related influences appeared most associated with improvement: (1) achieving clarity of purpose amongst site leads and key stakeholders; (2) capacity to lead and effective project support; (3) ideas to action; (4) learning from own and others’ experience; (5) creating additional capacity to do emergency cholecystectomies; and (6) coordinating/managing the patient pathway. Conclusion: Collaborative-based quality improvement is a viable strategy for emergency surgery but success requires the deployment of effective clinical strategies in conjunction with improvement strategies. In particular, achieving clarity of purpose about proposed changes amongst key stakeholders was a vital precursor to improvement, enabling the creation of additional surgical capacity and new pathways to be implemented effectively. Protected time, testing ideas, and the ability to learn quickly from data and experience were associated with greater impact within this cohort