Estimasi Nilai Lingkungan Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit Ditinjau dari Neraca Air Tanaman Kelapa Sawit (Studi Kasus: Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit di Kecamatan Dayun, Kabupaten Siak, Propinsi Riau)the Estimation Of Oil Palm Plantation ...

Dayun area is one of the centers of oil palm plantation in Siak Regency. State-owned company that develops oil palm plantation in Dayun is PT Perkebunan Nusantara V (PTPN V) which is the first company developing oil palm plantation in Siak Regency. The oil palm plantations cause various effects to the environment; one of them is the decreasing water availability for the water stakeholders. The decreasing water availability causes additional cost to the community. The objectives of this study were to determine the decreasing of water availability which was caused by oil palm plantation, and its cost to meet the needs of water. The study used water balance model by Thornwhite 1957 and Willingness to Pays (WTP) analysis using questionaire of Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) in Sawit Permai, Dayun Subdistrict, Siak Regency. The land cover, before and after, affects the water balance which impacts the water availability in Dayun. The decreasing water availability was comparable with the increasing water demand in oil palm plantation, equal to 67 mm/year. Oil palm plantation had greater runoff than that of forest. The need of water in oil palm plantation in Dayun was 42.728 liters/ha/day, with the daily need of a single palm tree equal to 0,012 m3/s. Based on the analysis of debt estimation, there is debt decreasing which indicates the decreasing water availability in Dayun, around 349 m3/s yearly. The estimated value of the environment for oil palm plantation by water resources consumption based on the difference of forest and oil palm plantation during the dry season (JJA) is equal to Rp 7.500.000. Average WTP for the water conservation program is Rp 26.400, with WTP maximum and minimum up to Rp 45.000 and Rp 5.000, respectively. The economic value of water conservation program is Rp 18.850.000/month.Dayun area is one of the centers of oil palm plantation in Siak Regency. State-owned company that develops oil palm plantation in Dayun is PT Perkebunan Nusantara V (PTPN V) which is the first company developing oil palm plantation in Siak Regency. The oil palm plantations cause various effects to the environment; one of them is the decreasing water availability for the water stakeholders. The decreasing water availability causes additional cost to the community. The objectives of this study were to determine the decreasing of water availability which was caused by oil palm plantation, and its cost to meet the needs of water. The study used water balance model by Thornwhite 1957 and Willingness to Pays (WTP) analysis using questionaire of Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) in Sawit Permai, Dayun Subdistrict, Siak Regency. The land cover, before and after, affects the water balance which impacts the water availability in Dayun. The decreasing water availability was comparable with the increasing water demand in oil palm plantation, equal to 67 mm/year. Oil palm plantation had greater runoff than that of forest. The need of water in oil palm plantation in Dayun was 42.728 liters/ha/day, with the daily need of a single palm tree equal to 0,012 m3/s. Based on the analysis of debt estimation, there is debt decreasing which indicates the decreasing water availability in Dayun, around 349 m3/s yearly. The estimated value of the environment for oil palm plantation by water resources consumption based on the difference of forest and oil palm plantation during the dry season (JJA) is equal to Rp 7.500.000. Average WTP for the water conservation program is Rp 26.400, with WTP maximum and minimum up to Rp 45.000 and Rp 5.000, respectively. The economic value of water conservation program is Rp 18.850.000/month

Comparison Performance of the Multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) in Simulating Rainfall and Air Temperature in Batanghari Watershed

Many scientists assume that RCM output is directly used as input for climate change impact models, while it consists of systematic errors. Consequently, RCM still requires bias correction to be used as an input model. The purpose of this study was to analyze the RCM performance before and after bias correction, its best performance from several models, as well as to clarify the importance of bias correction before it is used to analyze climate change. As a result of this, the method used for bias correction was Distribution Mapping method (for rainfall) and Average Ratio-method (for air temperature). While the Generalized Extrem Valuedistribution (GEV) was used to analysis extreme rainfall. To determine the performance of the model before and after bias correction, statistical analysis was used namelyR2, NSE, and RMSE. Furthermore, ranking for every single model and Taylor Diagram was used to determine the best model. The results showed that the RCMs performance improved with bias correction. However, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, and MPI-ESM-MR models can be ignored as ensemble models, because they demonstrated poor performance in simulating rainfall. From this study, it was suggested that the best model in simulating daily and monthly rainfall was ACCESS1-0, while MIROC-ESM-CHEM (daily air temperature) and ACCESS1-0 (monthly air temperature) were best models used in simulating air temperature. Key words: RCM, bias correction, performance, rainfall, air temperatur

Bogor Water Adequacy Status for 2009-2019

Water adequacy becomes one of the global concerns as the trend of population growth continues to arise. The condition of water adequacy can be worse in some regions since it also relates to rainfall, which is greatly influenced by global climate change. Here we explore water adequacy at local scale especially in Bogor, Indonesia based on sectoral water demands. The study aims to analysis water adequacy for 2009-2019 based on a climatic water balance. Water supply-demand analysis was performed using water usage index (WUI) in which high WUI corresponds to high critical water balance. Our results showed there was a deceased trend for water supply in Bogor approximately 0.6% per year, whereas an increased trend was observed for water demand (1.7% per year). The main contributor for the increased demand was from domestic water demand by 48%. Generally, water adequacy in Bogor for the period analysis (2009 -2019) is still adequate, but a proper management of water resource will ensure water adequacy in the long run in response to population explosion and climate change

LBNL-61463 Assessment Of Carbon Leakage In Multiple Carbon-Sink Projects: A Case Study In Jambi Province, Indonesia

Abstract. Rehabilitation of degraded forest land through implementation of carbon sink projects can increase terrestrial carbon stock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which is commonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestration benefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon sink projects that could potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of eleven sub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The study estimates the probability of a given land use/cover being converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. The predictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area, distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agricultural land, unemployment (number of job seekers), job opportunities, population density and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and without carbon sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated as being significant in their contribution to land use cover change. The results of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be large enough to more than offset the project's carbon sequestration benefits during the period 2002-2012. However, leakage results are very sensitive to changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. By reducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10% for the baseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collection and refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study has demonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assess leakage

Assessment of carbon leakage in multiple carbon-sink projects: a case study in Jambi Province, Indonesia

Carbon leakage, Carbon-sink projects, Logistic modeling, Mitigation,