Catalonia and Spain: will the referendum on independence go ahead?

The Catalan government has indicated it still intends to hold a referendum on independence on 1 October despite the Spanish government’s insistence that the vote will not take place. Sebastian Balfour writes that nothing could be more unpredictable than the outcome of the current impasse, as an almost unstoppable force, the Catalan movement for independence, is about to clash head on with an almost immovable object in the shape of the Spanish state

Mariano Rajoy may have forced Artur Mas’ hand over a Catalan independence consultation, but the issue remains far from settled

On 14 October, Catalan President Artur Mas stated that the planned vote on Catalonia’s independence, scheduled for 9 November, would no longer be held. Instead, he has proposed a poll on the same day on the basis of regional laws not ruled out by the Constitutional Tribunal. Sebastian Balfour writes that the new poll would have significantly less impact than the original proposal and may lead to the undermining of the unity of the Catalan pro-independence parties. Madrid’s blocking of the referendum may also give rise to more radical protests over Catalonia’s future and the poll may be followed by early elections from which the strongly pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) will benefit

The 2015 Spanish general election: a final look at the parties and the polls

Spain will hold a general election on 20 December, with opinion polls indicating a tight contest between four parties for the largest share of the vote – the governing People’s Party (PP), who have a small lead in most polls, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), Ciudadanos (C’s), and Podemos. Sebastian Balfour provides a final look at the campaigns and the polling. He writes that with Spain’s traditional two party system giving way to a new political landscape, the result remains impossible to predict

With uncertainty over independence, Catalonia is set for its most significant National Day demonstration since Spain’s transition to democracy

The Catalan government has announced its intention to hold a referendum on declaring independence from Spain on 9 November. However, with the Spanish government opposing the referendum, it is unclear what form such a vote would take, or even if it will be held at all. Sebastian Balfour writes on the emergence of a proposal by the Catalan government to hold a non-binding consultation on independence as an alternative, which would nevertheless carry all the political and moral force of a referendum. He notes that in the context of this uncertainty, the traditional demonstrations associated with Catalonia’s ‘National Day’ on 11 September may well be the most important since Spain’s transition to democracy

Catalonia is facing a deeply uncertain future – whether inside or outside of Spain

Following elections in Catalonia on 27 September, negotiations have taken place between the main pro-independence coalition, Together for Yes, and a smaller party, Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), with a view to forming the next Catalan government. Sebastian Balfour writes that regardless of the outcome of these negotiations, Catalonia is now moving into uncharted territory, with Together for Yes committed to a unilateral process of disconnection from Spain against the wishes of a hostile Spanish state

Nació i identitat a Espanya. Algunes reflexions

El model territorial fixat a la Constitució espanyola, basat en la pràctica més en una contradicció que no en la complementarietat entre govern regional i estatal, ha forjat nous regionalismes polítics, per una banda, i gairebé nacionalismes regionals, per l’altra. Malgrat això, els seus ciutadans, segons els sondeigs, es consideren espanyolsen un grau o un altre, inclosa la majoria dels bascos i catalans, i se senten còmodes en les seves identitats duals o múltiples. No obstant això, cal subratllar que la problemàtica d’Espanya com a estat o estat-nació no té res d’excepcional, per tal com la configuració de nacions i estats en diversos llocs d’Europa canvia a un ritme cada cop més vertiginós sota els efectes per una part de la globalització, i per una altra, per la reconfiguració del mapa polític internacional cap a una nova multipolaritat. És possible que ciutadanies compartides puguin, en un futur, reemplaçar sobiranies compartides com a eix de la relació entre estats i regions, encara que els pronòstics sobre el futur són cada vegada més arriscats.The territorial model set out in the Spanish Constitution, based on a contradiction in practice if not in the complementarities between regional and state government, has forged new political regionalism on the one hand, and almost regional nationalism on the other. Nevertheless, its citizens, according to polls, consider themselves Spanish to greater or lesser degrees, including the majority of Basques and Catalans,and feel comfortable in their dual or multiple identities. However, it should be emphasized that the problem of Spain as a state or nation-state is no exception, since the configuration of the nation and the state in different parts of Europe is changing at a dizzying pace. It is increasingly under the infl uence of globalization and a reconfiguration of the international political map towards a new multipolarity. It is possible that shared citizenship may in future replace shared sovereignty at the heart of the relationship between states and regions, although the predictions about the future are increasingly risky.El modelo territorial fijado en la Constitución española, basado en la práctica más en una contradicción que en la complementariedad entre gobierno regional y estatal,ha forjado nuevos regionalismos políticos, por un lado, y casi nacionalismos regionales, por el otro. A pesar de ello, sus ciudadanos, según los sondeos, se consideran españoles en un grado u otro, incluidos la mayoría de vascos y catalanes, sintiéndose cómodos en sus identidades duales o múltiples. No obstante, cabe subrayar que la problemática de España como estado o estado-nación no tiene nada de excepcional, puesto que la configuración de la nación y el estado en diferentes partes de Europa cambia a un ritmo cada vez más vertiginoso bajo los efectos de la globalización poruna parte y por otra por la reconfiguración del mapa político internacional hacia unanueva multipolaridad. Es posible que ciudadanías compartidas puedan, en un futuro, reemplazar soberanías compartidas como eje de la relación entre estados y regiones, si bien los pronósticos sobre el futuro son cada vez más arriesgado

The Catalan and Spanish crisis: A European perspective

The Catalan independence question remains one of the key issues on the agenda for Spain's new Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, as he completes his first month in office. Sebastian Balfour writes that Sánchez is likely to carry out a holding operation in the hope that support for his Socialists will grow ahead of the next general election, while the Catalan coalition government is bound by some of its parliamentary partners to continue pursuing independence