Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

International audienceIn recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000?3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000?2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000?3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000?2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000?2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m³ s?1) is significantly higher than for 4000?3000 BP (244.8 m³ s?1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m³ s?1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m³ s?1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism

Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

International audienceIn recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000?3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000?2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000?3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000?2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000?2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m³ s?1) is significantly higher than for 4000?3000 BP (244.8 m³ s?1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m³ s?1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m³ s?1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism

Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: Impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup>) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism

Shifting social norms and adolescent girls' access to sexual and reproductive health services and information in a South African township

Despite policy on adolescent sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services and education, teen pregnancies remain common in South Africa. Social norms and cultural resistance are a well-documented challenge for SRH program implementation in South Africa, and beyond. To gain insight on the complex picture of adolescents’ access to SRH information and services in a peri-urban township, we explored this topic from a diversity of perspectives, carrying out 86 interviews to capture perceptions of adolescents, their parents, community members, and health professionals. Our research shows that despite the taboo nature of the issue of adolescent SRH, individual positions on adolescent access to SRH services and information are shifting and diverse, and are influenced by factors other than cultural norms. This research serves as a reminder to avoid simplistic reference to “culture” as a way of explaining health-related behaviors and people’s responses to health challenges

Food availability limits avian reproduction in the city: An experimental study on great tits Parus major

1. The altered ecological and environmental conditions in towns and cities strongly affect demographic traits of urban animal populations, for example avian reproductive success is often reduced. Previous work suggests that this is partly driven by low insect availability during the breeding season, but robust experimental evidence that supports this food limitation hypothesis is not yet available. 2. We tested core predictions of the food limitation hypothesis using a controlled experiment that provided supplementary insect food (nutritionally enhanced mealworms supplied daily to meet 40%–50% of each supplemented brood's food requirements) to great tit nestlings in urban and forest habitats. 3. We measured parental provisioning rates and estimated the amount of supplementary food consumed by control and experimental nestlings, and assessed their body size and survival rates. 4. Provisioning rates were similar across habitats and control and supplemented broods, but supplemented (and not control) broods consumed large quantities of supplementary food. As predicted by the food limitation hypothesis we found that nestlings in (a) urban control broods had smaller body size and nestling survival rates than those in forest control broods; (b) forest supplemented and control broods had similar body size and survival rates; (c) urban supplemented nestlings had larger body size and survival rates than those in urban control broods; and crucially (d) urban supplemented broods had similar body size and survival rates to nestlings in forest control broods. 5. Our results provide rare experimental support for the strong negative effects of food limitation during the nestling rearing period on urban birds' breeding success. Furthermore, the fact that supplementary food almost completely eliminated habitat differences in survival rate and nestling body size suggest that urban stressors other than food shortage contributed relatively little to the reduced avian breeding success. Finally, given the impacts of the amount of supplementary food that we provided and taking clutch size differences into account, our results suggest that urban insect populations in our study system would need to be increased by a factor of at least 2.5 for urban and forest great tits to have similar reproductive success

Availability of services for the diagnosis and treatment of infertility in The Gambia`s public and private health facilities : a cross-sectional survey

Background Infertility is a long-standing reproductive health issue, which affects both men and women worldwide and it is especially problematic in the Global South. In sub-Saharan Africa, understanding the current availability of diagnostic and treatment services for infertility is important because this could guide health systems to improve access to fertility care for all. Yet, few studies have explicitly started from a health system perspective to grasp the availability and integration of infertility services in sub-Saharan Africa. This quantitative study, the first in The Gambia, West Africa, examines the availability of infertility services in public and private facilities as part of a wider endeavour to improve fertility care policy and practice in the country. Methods A cross-sectional survey using Qualtrics was administered to 38 health facilities. The survey was carried out between March and August 2021 and involved closed-ended questions. Data analysis consisted of descriptive statistics and t-tests performed using SPSS version 26. Results A total of 25 facilities (66%) offered infertility services, of which 13 (52%) were public and 12 (47%) private. Although the availability of screening tests was similar between health institutions, most diagnostic and treatment services were available only in the private sector. Treatment services included: (i) ovarian stimulation (n = 16, 42%); (ii) reversal of tubal ligation and/or blockage (tuboplasty) (n = 4, 11%); and (iii) intrauterine insemination (n = 3, 8%). Assisted reproductive technologies such as IVF and ICSI were not available in public or private sectors. The Gambian health management information system lacked a dedicated space to capture data on infertility. Reported barriers to integration of infertility services in existing reproductive health services included a lack of specialised training, an absence of national guidance on infertility management, and a shortage of appropriate equipment, supplies, and medication. Conclusions The availability of infertility services in The Gambia follows a trajectory that is similar to other SSA countries in which services are mostly obtainable through the private sector. Yet, access to private care is expensive and geographically restricted, which exacerbates inequalities in accessing fertility care for all. Improving the provision of infertility services in the public sector requires systematically capturing data on infertility and investing in the provision of a full-range fertility care package