Development of A Mathematical Model of Conflict Between the Parties in the Implementation of the Offset Transaction

The object of research of this work is the conflict of interests of the parties in the implementation of offset agreements. One of the most problematic places when implementing offset agreements is that a wide variety of sudden events, force majeure circumstances, etc. can take place – phenomena that can't be described in detail and predicted with acceptable accuracy in full. In addition, the offset contract is a conflict of interest between the seller and the buyer. During the study, the methods of the humanitarian and natural-scientific approach are used, thanks to which the conflict was given a new interpretation. It is considered as a way of interaction of complex systems. It is shown that the conflict is not a synonym for confrontation, but a way to overcome contradictions and limitations, a way of interaction of complex systems is an inevitable, normal phenomenon. Of course, conflict involves struggle, but, above all, conflict involves interaction. It is shown that the conflict can't be considered as an optimization task, since with equal resources of the parties, the conflict will be terminated due to the complete depletion of both sides, and with unequal resources, the defeat of the weaker side with a probability of one. Also, the conflict can't be resolved within the framework of the theory of adaptation. A brief comparative analysis of the possibilities of using varieties of Markov processes and the degree of their adequacy to the real processes of supporting offset transactions at different stages is carried out. A mathematical model of the conflict between the parties is proposed. In the model, the process of conflict development is a branched semi-Markov process, the transitional and final probabilities of which depend on the ratio of resources of the parties. In addition, the conflict represents a sequence of concerted actions of the parties and, in fact, is a controllable quasiperiodic process with elements of stochasticity. The resulting winnings of the parties to the conflict are investigated with varieties of their cooperation and rivalry. The proposed model can be used to model the processes of development and implementation of offset programs and the wins of the parties

Development of a Combined Method for Predicting Discrete TIME Series with Non-stability for Forecasting Military Goods Demand

The object of research is a model of the production system of military goods with non-stationary processes. In the study of the time series of the characteristics of the production system, various competing models, as a rule, are obtained under production conditions with stochastic data on the output of products due to bottleneck problems. So, the choice of the best model that describes the production system becomes difficult and critical, because some models that most closely correspond to the observed data may not foresee future values in accordance with the complexity of the model. This study seeks to demonstrate the procedure for selecting a model in a random data system using adjusted weights. This paper presents a method for combining two sets of forecasts. The obtained measurements serve as input with an autocorrelation function and a partial autocorrelation function to obtain the order of predictive models. The model parameters are evaluated and used for forecasting and compared with the original and converted data to obtain the sum of squared errors in (SSE). Models are evaluated for adequacy and subsequently tested against Akaike and Schwarz criteria. Two separate sets of forecasts of time series data are combined to form a combined set of forecasts. It should be noted that when each set of forecasts contains some independent information, combined forecasts can provide an improvement. The proposed method for combining forecasts allows to change weights, can lead to better forecasts. The main conclusion is that a set of forecasts can lead to a lower standard error than any of the initial forecasts. Past errors of each of the initial forecasts are used to determine the weight for joining two original forecasts in the formation of combined forecasts. However, the effectiveness of the forecast may change over time

Research of the Influence of Humanomics on the Economic Effect of Compensation Agreements

The object of research is the humanitarian context of offset policy, which is studied using the collection of evidence in the field of study-in the defense industry of Europe. One of the most problematic places in the sphere of trade in military goods is the humanitarian factor of economic relations, namely the influence of non-economic factors on the economic effect. The humanitarian aspect of economic relations led to a study of the foundations of the so-called «humanitarian economy» or «humanomics» as a moral and ethical category of economic relations, and military-technical cooperation, as a purely rational category of relations between producers, suppliers and importers of military products. The concept of «humanomics» is formed not so long ago, therefore this topic is not sufficiently disclosed in the literature, making research promising. During the study, the key concepts of the traditional and humanitarian economics, their dialectic unity, interpenetration and interconnection were revealed. In addition to studying the impact of compensation transactions on business processes in small and medium-sized enterprises, a special business model, the so-called compensation transaction model, is developed in this research. The model is based on a three-stage systematic approach: at the first stage, problems associated with compensation agreements at small and medium enterprises are identified, and at the second stage, empirical data are analyzed. At the latter, a theoretical model is proposed that is specially developed for practicing specialists and is tested using practically two specific cases. Thanks to the use of the proposed model, it is possible to support the implementation of compensation agreements at all levels of management, including planning, implementation of tasks and control. For the military-trade cooperation of Ukraine with other weapons-importing countries, offset models will contribute to deepening economic cooperation in the competition on the global arms and military equipment markets. Therefore, it is extremely important, while strengthening the humanitarian aspects of offset policy, at the same time actively developing and implementing mechanisms of competitive counteraction

Applying an Adaptive Method of the Orthogonal Laguerre Filtration of Noise Interference to Increase the Signal/noise Ratio

A relevant task for control systems is to reduce the impact of noise interference in order to increase the signal/noise ratio (SNR). This issue is relevant to other technical systems as well. This work addresses the orthogonal Laguerre filtration of noise processes, which are described by the linear random processes. The proposed method of filtration makes it possible to reduce the influence of noise interference, which is described by the stationary linear random processes, in the operation of correlation systems. The essence of this method implies the use of orthogonal Laguerre filters as the input links of the correlation system.The sequence of the noise processes, which are uncorrelated over a significant time interval of their mutual shift, has been derived on the basis of orthogonal Laguerre filtration of the stationary white noise. Such processes are described by the stationary linear random processes and are the models of a wide range of noise interference, which are explored in the operation of various technical systems, including control, detection, recognition, measurement systems, etc. The application of this method decreases the effect of noise interference with different correlation-spectral characteristics and increases the SNR at the output from the correlation system. Practical tasks on reducing the action of stationary noise interference have been solved within the framework of the proposed adaptive method of orthogonal Laguerre filtration; to this end, the article shows a structural-logical scheme of the correlation system. Using the software, the algorithm of the adaptive filtration based on the complex Laguerre filters has been implemented. The implementation has been carried out for an actual noise interference that belongs to the RLC class of noise, employing the pre-training of the filter. The effectiveness of reducing the impact of the predefined stationary noise interference has been confirmed by the derived efficiency coefficients the size of –6 dB and –16 dB for the set of the interference zeroing point