Aperiodicity in one-way Markov cycles and repeat times of large earthquakes in faults

A common use of Markov Chains is the simulation of the seismic cycle in a fault, i.e. as a renewal model for the repetition of its characteristic earthquakes. This representation is consistent with Reid's elastic rebound theory. Here it is proved that in {\it any} one-way Markov cycle, the aperiodicity of the corresponding distribution of cycle lengths is always lower than one. This fact concurs with observations of large earthquakes in faults all over the world

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking

Magneto-Gyrotropic Photogalvanic Effects in Semiconductor Quantum Wells

We show that free-carrier (Drude) absorption of both polarized and unpolarized terahertz radiation in quantum well (QW) structures causes an electric photocurrent in the presence of an in-plane magnetic field. Experimental and theoretical analysis evidences that the observed photocurrents are spin-dependent and related to the gyrotropy of the QWs. Microscopic models for the photogalvanic effects in QWs based on asymmetry of photoexcitation and relaxation processes are proposed. In most of the investigated structures the observed magneto-induced photocurrents are caused by spin-dependent relaxation of non-equilibrium carriers

Variability of Iberian upwelling implied by ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses

The Regional Ocean Modeling System ocean model is used to simulate the decadal evolution of the regional waters in offshore Iberia in response to atmospheric fields given by ECMWF ERA-40 (1961–2001) and ERA-Interim (1989–2008) reanalyses. The simulated sea surface temperature (SST) fields are verified against satellite AVHRR SST, and they are analysed to characterise the variability and trends of coastal upwelling in the region. Opposing trends in upwelling frequency are found at the northern limit, where upwelling has been decreasing in recent decades, and at its southern edge, where there is some evidence of increased upwelling. These results confirm previous observational studies and, more importantly, indicate that observed SST trends are not only due to changes in radiative or atmospheric heat fluxes alone but also due to changes in upwelling dynamics, suggesting that such a process may be relevant in climate change scenarios

Growth and mortality estimates of Sardinella brasiliensis in the southeastern Brazilian Bight

Length frequency analisys were applied for sardine data collected from commercial catches throughout the southeastern Brazilian coast in 1977-1987. Age/length keys were obtained by otolith ring countings and utilized to transform length into age composition. Growth parameters were estimated by the von Bertalanffy growth equation using age and length data for each year and for all the period of investigation. The mean growth parameters for the entire period were estimated as L∞ = 271 mm and K= 0.59 year-1. Instantaneous total mortality (Z) coefficients per year were estimated using catch curves and methods based on the mean length of the fish caught. Total mortality rate for the entire period was obtained through the average of the annual values. Natural mortality (M) was estimated using the Paul/s empirical equation (1980a), and fishing mortality (F) by the difference between total and natural mortality values.The results were Z = 3.6 year-1; M = 0.96 year-1; and F= 2.6 year-1.Estudo sobre o crescimento e a mortalidade de Sardinella brasiliensis, da costa sudeste do Brasil, foi realizado para o período 1977 a 1987. As análises foram efetuadas a partir de dados existentes sobre distribuições de freqüência de comprimento de amostras da captura comercial. Chaves idade/comprimento, construidas a partir de leitura de anéis de crescimento em otólitos, dentro do Programa Integrado de Estudos Biológicos sobre a Sardinha - PIEBS, foram utilizadas para transformar as distribuiçes de comprimento em idade. Os parâmetros de crescimento da equação de von Bertalanffy foram estimados, anualmente e para o período como um todo, a partir de métodos que utilizam dados de idade e comprimento. Os parâmetros médios encontrados para o período foram: L∞ = 271 mm e K= 0,59 ano-1. Os coeficientes instantâneos de mortalidade total (Z) anuais foram calculados pelas curvas de captura e por métodos baseados no comprimento médio dos indivíduos nas capturas. A mortalidade total para todo o período foi obtida pela média dos valores anuais. O coeficiente instantâneo de mortalidade natural (M) foi estimado pela equação empírica de Pauly (1980a), usando um fator de correção de 0,8 para clupeoides, e o coeficiente instantâneo de mortalidade por pesca (F), pela diferença entre a mortalidade total e a natural. Os valores encontrados foram: Z= 3,6 ano-1, M = 0,96 ano-1 e F= 2,6 ano-1

Spawning of bluefin tuna in the black sea: historical evidence, environmental constraints and population plasticity

<div><p>The lucrative and highly migratory Atlantic bluefin tuna, <em>Thunnus thynnus</em> (Linnaeus 1758<em>;</em> Scombridae), used to be distributed widely throughout the north Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea. Its migrations have supported sustainable fisheries and impacted local cultures since antiquity, but its biogeographic range has contracted since the 1950s. Most recently, the species disappeared from the Black Sea in the late 1980s and has not yet recovered. Reasons for the Black Sea disappearance, and the species-wide range contraction, are unclear. However bluefin tuna formerly foraged and possibly spawned in the Black Sea. Loss of a locally-reproducing population would represent a decline in population richness, and an increase in species vulnerability to perturbations such as exploitation and environmental change. Here we identify the main genetic and phenotypic adaptations that the population must have (had) in order to reproduce successfully in the specific hydrographic (estuarine) conditions of the Black Sea. By comparing hydrographic conditions in spawning areas of the three species of bluefin tunas, and applying a mechanistic model of egg buoyancy and sinking rate, we show that reproduction in the Black Sea must have required specific adaptations of egg buoyancy, fertilisation and development for reproductive success. Such adaptations by local populations of marine fish species spawning in estuarine areas are common as is evident from a meta-analysis of egg buoyancy data from 16 species of fish. We conclude that these adaptations would have been necessary for successful local reproduction by bluefin tuna in the Black Sea, and that a locally-adapted reproducing population may have disappeared. Recovery of bluefin tuna in the Black Sea, either for spawning or foraging, will occur fastest if any remaining locally adapted individuals are allowed to survive, and by conservation and recovery of depleted Mediterranean populations which could through time re-establish local Black Sea spawning and foraging.</p> </div