A Smoothed-Distribution Form of Nadaraya-Watson Estimation

Given observation-pairs (xi ,yi ), i = 1,...,n , taken to be independent observations of the random pair (X ,Y), we sometimes want to form a nonparametric estimate of m(x) = E(Y/ X = x). Let YE have the empirical distribution of the yi , and let (XS ,YS ) have the kernel-smoothed distribution of the (xi ,yi ). Then the standard estimator, the Nadaraya-Watson form mNW(x) can be interpreted as E(YE?XS = x). The smoothed-distribution estimator ms (x)=E(YS/XS = x) is a more general form than  mNW (x) and often has better properties. Similar considerations apply to estimating Var(Y/X = x), and to local polynomial estimation. The discussion generalizes to vector (xi ,yi ).nonparametric regression, Nadaraya-Watson, kernel density, conditional expectation estimator, conditional variance estimator, local polynomial estimator

Wage Dispersion in a Partially Unionized Labor Force

Taking as our point of departure a model proposed by David Card (2001), we suggest new methods for analyzing wage dispersion in a partially unionized labor market. Card's method disaggregates the labor population into skill categories, which procedure entails some loss of information. Accordingly, we develop a model in which each worker individually is assigned a union-membership probability and predicted union and nonunion wages. The model yields a natural three-way decomposition of variance. The decomposition permits counterfactual analysis, using concepts and techniques from the theory of factorial experimental design. We examine causes of the increase in U.K. wage dispersion between 1983 and 1995. Of the factors initially considered, the most influential was a change in the structure of remuneration inside both the union and nonunion sectors. Next in importance was the decrease in union membership. Finally, exogenous changes in labor force characteristics had, for most groups considered, only a small negative effect. We supplement this preliminary three-factorial analysis with a five-factorial analysis that allows us to examine effects from the wage-equation parameters in greater detail.wage dispersion, three-way variance decomposition, bivariate kernel density smoothing, union membership, deunionization, factorial experimental design

Wage Dispersion in a Partially Unionized Labor Force

Wage Dispersion in a Partially Unionized Labor Force This paper critiques Card’s (2001) method for analyzing wage dispersion in a partially unionized labor market based on a disaggregation of the population into skill categories. We argue that disaggregation is a good idea, the use of skill categories less so. We offer a modified model in which each worker is assigned a union-membership probability, a predicted union wage, and a predicted nonunion wage. Our model provides a natural three-way decomposition of variance, and is also suited to counterfactual analysis. By way of an application, we examine the effect of de-unionization on wage dispersion in the United Kingdom between 1983 and 1995, reporting that the decline in membership accounts for only about one-fifth of the observed increase in wage dispersion.wage dispersion, three-way variance decomposition, bivariate kernel density smoothing, union membership, deunionization.

Controlling the alfalfa weevil in Missouri

"Alfalfa weevil larvae caused moderate to heavy damage in recent years to the first cutting of alfalfa over the entire state. Adults and late developing larvae also caused some heavy damage to regrowth following removal of the first cutting over much of the state. Alfalfa in Missouri is now about 650,000 acres."--First page.Wayne C. Bailey and Ralph E. Munson (Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture)Revised 3/86/6

Ambiguity and public good provision in large societies

In this paper we consider the effect of ambiguity on the private provision of public goods. Equilibrium is shown to exist and be unique. We examine how provision of the public good changes as the size of the population increases. We show that when there is uncertainty there may be less free-riding in large societies

Life After Being a Pathology Department Chair III: Reflections on the "Afterlife".

The Association of Pathology Chairs Senior Fellows Group provided reflections on activities that have kept them engaged and inspired after stepping down as chair. They offered advice to current chairs who were considering leaving their positions and also to individuals contemplating becoming pathology chairs. A majority (35/41) responded: 60% maintained teaching/mentoring activities; 43% engaged in hobbies; 40% took other administrative positions including deans, medical center chief executive officers, and residency program directors; 31% continued research; 28% wrote books; 20% performed community service; 14% led professional organizations; 14% developed specialized programs; 11% engaged in clinical service; and 11% performed entrepreneurial activities. Most individuals had several of these activities. One-third indicated that those considering becoming chair should be able to place faculty and department needs before their own. One-fourth emphasized the need to know why one wants to become chair, the need to develop clear goals, and the need to know what one wants to accomplish as chair before applying for and accepting the position. More than half (57%) indicated that before stepping down as chair, one should have a clear plan and/or professional goals that can be served by stepping down. Some even suggested that this be in place before applying for the chair. Almost two-thirds (63%) indicated they had no regrets stepping down as chair. These findings may be valuable to those contemplating stepping down from or stepping into any department chair position or other academic leadership role

Human Economists and Abstract Methodology

ABSTRAC

The Influence of Rivers on the History of Indiana

This study deals with the influence of rivers on the history of Indiana. It is difficult for us to visualize that some of the small streams that we cross many times with hardly a glance, were once the most important link in a vast chain of commerce. The early settler depended on these streams to get his surplus products to market. A glance at a road map of Indiana will reveal the importance that the early settler assigned to rivers and streams. Can you find any city or town of any size that is not located near a stream of some kind? This study dealt with the ways in which the early settler used the rivers and how they influenced his mode of living. Some historical events involving rivers were studied in the light of their influence on the history of Indiana