Model Averaging Software for Dichotomous Dose Response Risk Estimation

Model averaging has been shown to be a useful method for incorporating model uncertainty in quantitative risk estimation. In certain circumstances this technique is computationally complex, requiring sophisticated software to carry out the computation. We introduce software that implements model averaging for risk assessment based upon dichotomous dose-response data. This software, which we call Model Averaging for Dichotomous Response Benchmark Dose (MADr-BMD), fits the quantal response models, which are also used in the US Environmental Protection Agency benchmark dose software suite, and generates a model-averaged dose response model to generate benchmark dose and benchmark dose lower bound estimates. The software fulfills a need for risk assessors, allowing them to go beyond one single model in their risk assessments based on quantal data by focusing on a set of models that describes the experimental data.

The Mass Dependence of Stellar Rotation in the Orion Nebula Cluster

We have determined new rotation periods for 404 stars in the Orion Nebula Cluster using the Wide Field Imager attached to the MPG/ESO 2.2 m telescope on La Silla, Chile. Mass estimates are available for 335 of these and most have M < 0.3 M_sun. We confirm the existence of a bimodal period distribution for the higher mass stars in our sample and show that the median rotation rate decreases with increasing mass for stars in the range 0.1 < M <0.4 M_sun. While the spread in angular momentum (J) at any given mass is more than a factor of 10, the majority of lower mass stars in the ONC rotate at rates approaching 30% of their critical break-up velocity, as opposed to 5-10% for solar-like stars. This is a consequence of both a small increase in observed specific angular momentum (j=J/M) and a larger decrease in the critical value of j with decreasing mass. Perhaps the most striking fact, however, is that j varies by so little - less than a factor of two - over the interval 0.1-1.0 M_sun. The distribution of rotation rates with mass in the ONC (age ~ 1 My) is similar in nature to what is found in the Pleiades (age ~ 100 My). These observations provide a significant new guide and test for models of stellar angular momentum evolution during the proto-stellar and pre-main sequence phases.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure

Model Averaging Software for Dichotomous Dose Response Risk Estimation

Model averaging has been shown to be a useful method for incorporating model uncertainty in quantitative risk estimation. In certain circumstances this technique is computationally complex, requiring sophisticated software to carry out the computation. We introduce software that implements model averaging for risk assessment based upon dichotomous dose-response data. This software, which we call Model Averaging for Dichotomous Response Benchmark Dose (MADr-BMD), fits the quantal response models, which are also used in the US Environmental Protection Agency benchmark dose software suite, and generates a model-averaged dose response model to generate benchmark dose and benchmark dose lower bound estimates. The software fulfills a need for risk assessors, allowing them to go beyond one single model in their risk assessments based on quantal data by focusing on a set of models that describes the experimental data

Time Variability of Quasars: the Structure Function Variance

Significant progress in the description of quasar variability has been recently made by employing SDSS and POSS data. Common to most studies is a fundamental assumption that photometric observations at two epochs for a large number of quasars will reveal the same statistical properties as well-sampled light curves for individual objects. We critically test this assumption using light curves for a sample of $\sim$2,600 spectroscopically confirmed quasars observed about 50 times on average over 8 years by the SDSS stripe 82 survey. We find that the dependence of the mean structure function computed for individual quasars on luminosity, rest-frame wavelength and time is qualitatively and quantitatively similar to the behavior of the structure function derived from two-epoch observations of a much larger sample. We also reproduce the result that the variability properties of radio and X-ray selected subsamples are different. However, the scatter of the variability structure function for fixed values of luminosity, rest-frame wavelength and time is similar to the scatter induced by the variance of these quantities in the analyzed sample. Hence, our results suggest that, although the statistical properties of quasar variability inferred using two-epoch data capture some underlying physics, there is significant additional information that can be extracted from well-sampled light curves for individual objects.Comment: Presented at the "Classification and Discovery in Large Astronomical Surveys" meeting, Ringberg Castle, 14-17 October, 200

A history of the gamma-ray burst flux at the Earth from Galactic globular clusters

Nearby gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are likely to have represented a significant threat to life on the Earth. Recent observations suggest that a significant source of such bursts is compact binary mergers in globular clusters. This link between globular clusters and GRBs offers the possibility to find time intervals in the past with higher probabilities of a nearby burst, by tracing globular cluster orbits back in time. Here we show that the expected flux from such bursts is not flat over the past 550 Myr but rather exhibits three broad peaks, at 70, 180 and 340 Myr ago. The main source for nearby GRBs for all three time intervals is the globular cluster 47 Tuc, a consequence of its large mass and high stellar encounter rate, as well as the fact that it is one of the globular clusters that come quite close to the Sun. Mass extinction events indeed coincide with all three time intervals found in this study, although a chance coincidence is quite likely. Nevertheless, the identified time intervals can be used as a guide to search for specific signatures of GRBs in the geological record around these times.Peer reviewe

Finding rare objects and building pure samples: Probabilistic quasar classification from low resolution Gaia spectra

We develop and demonstrate a probabilistic method for classifying rare objects in surveys with the particular goal of building very pure samples. It works by modifying the output probabilities from a classifier so as to accommodate our expectation (priors) concerning the relative frequencies of different classes of objects. We demonstrate our method using the Discrete Source Classifier, a supervised classifier currently based on Support Vector Machines, which we are developing in preparation for the Gaia data analysis. DSC classifies objects using their very low resolution optical spectra. We look in detail at the problem of quasar classification, because identification of a pure quasar sample is necessary to define the Gaia astrometric reference frame. By varying a posterior probability threshold in DSC we can trade off sample completeness and contamination. We show, using our simulated data, that it is possible to achieve a pure sample of quasars (upper limit on contamination of 1 in 40,000) with a completeness of 65% at magnitudes of G=18.5, and 50% at G=20.0, even when quasars have a frequency of only 1 in every 2000 objects. The star sample completeness is simultaneously 99% with a contamination of 0.7%. Including parallax and proper motion in the classifier barely changes the results. We further show that not accounting for class priors in the target population leads to serious misclassifications and poor predictions for sample completeness and contamination. (Truncated)Comment: MNRAS accepte

VAMP: semantic validation for MPEG-7 profile descriptions

MPEG-7 can be used to create complex and comprehensive metadata descriptions of multimedia content. Since MPEG-7 is defined in terms of an XML schema, the semantics of its elements has no formal grounding. In addition, certain features can be described in multiple ways. MPEG-7 profiles are subsets of the standard that apply to specific application areas and that aim to reduce this syntactic variability, but they still lack formal semantics. We propose an approach for expressing the semantics explicitly

Photometric identification of blue horizontal branch stars

We investigate the performance of some common machine learning techniques in identifying BHB stars from photometric data. To train the machine learning algorithms, we use previously published spectroscopic identifications of BHB stars from SDSS data. We investigate the performance of three different techniques, namely k nearest neighbour classification, kernel density estimation and a support vector machine (SVM). We discuss the performance of the methods in terms of both completeness and contamination. We discuss the prospect of trading off these values, achieving lower contamination at the expense of lower completeness, by adjusting probability thresholds for the classification. We also discuss the role of prior probabilities in the classification performance, and we assess via simulations the reliability of the dataset used for training. Overall it seems that no-prior gives the best completeness, but adopting a prior lowers the contamination. We find that the SVM generally delivers the lowest contamination for a given level of completeness, and so is our method of choice. Finally, we classify a large sample of SDSS DR7 photometry using the SVM trained on the spectroscopic sample. We identify 27,074 probable BHB stars out of a sample of 294,652 stars. We derive photometric parallaxes and demonstrate that our results are reasonable by comparing to known distances for a selection of globular clusters. We attach our classifications, including probabilities, as an electronic table, so that they can be used either directly as a BHB star catalogue, or as priors to a spectroscopic or other classification method. We also provide our final models so that they can be directly applied to new data.Comment: To appear in A&A. 19 pages, 22 figures. Tables 7, A3 and A4 available electronically onlin

Astronomical imaging: The theory of everything

We are developing automated systems to provide homogeneous calibration meta-data for heterogeneous imaging data, using the pixel content of the image alone where necessary. Standardized and complete calibration meta-data permit generative modeling: A good model of the sky through wavelength and time--that is, a model of the positions, motions, spectra, and variability of all stellar sources, plus an intensity map of all cosmological sources--could synthesize or generate any astronomical image ever taken at any time with any equipment in any configuration. We argue that the best-fit or highest likelihood model of the data is also the best possible astronomical catalog constructed from those data. A generative model or catalog of this form is the best possible platform for automated discovery, because it is capable of identifying informative failures of the model in new data at the pixel level, or as statistical anomalies in the joint distribution of residuals from many images. It is also, in some sense, an astronomer's "theory of everything".Comment: a talk given at "Classification and Discovery in Large Astronomical Surveys", Ringberg Castle, 2008-10-1

Plausible home stars of the interstellar object 'Oumuamua found in Gaia DR2

The first detected interstellar object 'Oumuamua that passed within 0.25au of the Sun on 2017 September 9 was presumably ejected from a stellar system. We use its newly determined non-Keplerian trajectory together with the reconstructed Galactic orbits of 7 million stars from Gaia DR2 to identify past close encounters. Such an "encounter" could reveal the home system from which 'Oumuamua was ejected. The closest encounter, at 0.60pc (0.53-0.67pc, 90% confidence interval), was with the M2.5 dwarf HIP 3757 at a relative velocity of 24.7km/s, 1Myr ago. A more distant encounter (1.6pc) but with a lower encounter (ejection) velocity of 10.7km/s was with the G5 dwarf HD 292249, 3.8Myr ago. Two more stars have encounter distances and velocities intermediate to these. The encounter parameters are similar across six different non-gravitational trajectories for 'Oumuamua. Ejection of 'Oumuamua by scattering from a giant planet in one of the systems is plausible, but requires a rather unlikely configuration to achieve the high velocities found. A binary star system is more likely to produce the observed velocities. None of the four home candidates have published exoplanets or are known to be binaries. Given that the 7 million stars in Gaia DR2 with 6D phase space information is just a small fraction of all stars for which we can eventually reconstruct orbits, it is a priori unlikely that our current search would find 'Oumuamua's home star system. As 'Oumuamua is expected to pass within 1pc of about 20 stars and brown dwarfs every Myr, the plausibility of a home system depends also on an appropriate (low) encounter velocity.Comment: Accepted to The Astronomical Journa