Small area estimation strategy for the 2011 Census in England and Wales

© 2018-IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved. The use of model-based small area estimation for adjusting census results in the UK was first introduced in the 2001 Census. The aim was to obtain local level population estimates by age-sex groups, adjusted for the level of undercount that combined results from the Census and the Census Coverage Survey. A similar approach was adopted for the 2011 Census but with new features and this paper describes the work carried out to arrive at the chosen small area strategy. Simulation studies are used to investigate three proposed small area estimation methods: a local fixed effects model (the 2001 Census approach), a direct estimator and a synthetic estimator. The results indicate that both the synthetic and the local fixed effect models constitute good options to produce accurate and reliable local authority population estimates. A proposal is made to implement a small area estimation procedure that accommodates both the synthetic and local fixed models, as in some selected areas with differing local authority under-coverage rates a local fixed effects model may perform best. We examine this strategy under real census conditions based on the final results from the 2011 census

Urban land, planning and governance systems in Nigeria

The narrative of rapid urbanisation in relation to inadequate planning, governance and management regimes in Nigeria is well-rehearsed. The combination of customary and colonial practices, outdated policies and plans and entrenched attitudes is typically regarded as a problem without clear or universal solutions. The aim of this report is to elucidate the urban land administration and planning debate in the country by examining the issues based on literature review and views of key urban sector stakeholders from six cities obtained through interviews.The historical development of land administration, planning and governance regimes in Nigeria is seen to contribute to the failure of the current development system because of an evolution from two distinct paradigms. This leads to confusion and a lack of engagement with formal systems thereby limiting the potential for well-conceived national and state urban development goals from being realised within cities that are not observing the planning frameworks. Colonial segregational policies have been superseded by a succession of policies that increasingly recognise, but cannot enforce, participation, equity, sustainability and climate change adaptation.Simultaneously, massively-scaled urban development continues under a variety of guises to meet the demand for space for urban accommodation, business and services from a diverse population with huge division between the wealthy and the urban poor. There is a growing need to categorise and understand this diversity of development in order to develop policies that adopt the positive aspects of informal development while pursuing national and state development goals and providing healthy and economically viable urban environments for all.It is shown that new development forms such as new towns, developer-built estates and owner built housing are large factors in the foregoing regard as they are in other sub-Saharan African urban areas. In addition, large scale infrastructural development has also led to ribbon and satellite development that takes advantage of the massive investment in national assets. These development forms are far superior to the slum conditions traditionally associated with the term “informal” and they may benefit from some of the “legal” attributes of formal planned developments such as ownership rights and even locally-prepared plans.The advantages of such developments in the vacuum created by the inadequacies of the formal planning system seem self-evident. However, it is apparent that these developments suffer from deficiencies in the provision of infrastructure and services and may also put an intolerable strain on nearby infrastructure and services designed to cope with the much smaller population anticipated by formal planning. Equally, the increasing commodification of lands especially those delivered through the informal system in the face of rapid urbanisation and rising demand are driving land and rental prices to unsustainable levels and out of the reach of essential key workers and the urban poor. This, coupled with the2tendency for the governance arrangements under the informal system to crumble in the face of urbanisation, could potentially displace people that would be considered entitled under the urban land administration and planning system in Nigeria. Furthermore, lack of formal governance and management of housing developments can place people at risk from unhealthy and overcrowded living conditions. This could also empower unscrupulous land owners and developers to prescribe their own governance and management framework, which may result in exploitation of innocent purchasers.The report also examines recent initiatives at national, state and local levels. It concludes that some initiatives have been met with a measure of success and that these are typified by a flexibility that applies global principles at a local level and that canvas the needs and observes the contexts of local populations

Latent Class Analysis for Estimating an Unknown Population Size – with Application to Censuses

Abstract Estimation of the unknown population size using capture-recapture techniques relies on the key assumption that the capture probabilities are homogeneous across individuals in the population. This is usually accomplished via post-stratification by some key covariates believed to influence individual catchability. Another issue that arises in population estimation from data collected from multiple sources is list dependence, where an individual’s catchability on one list is related to that of another list. The earlier models for population estimation heavily relied upon list independence. However, there are methods available that can adjust the population estimates to account for dependence among lists. In this article, we propose the use of latent class analysis through log-linear modelling to estimate the population size in the presence of both heterogeneity and list dependence. The proposed approach is illustrated using data from the 1988 US census dress rehearsal.</jats:p

Census politics in deeply divided societies

Population censuses in societies that are deeply divided along ethnic, religious or linguistic lines can be sensitive affairs – particularly where political settlements seek to maintain peace through the proportional sharing of power between groups. This brief sets out some key findings from a research project investigating the relationship between census politics and the design of political institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kenya, Lebanon and Northern Ireland

Catheter-based autologous bone marrow myocardial injection in no-option patients with advanced coronary artery disease A feasibility study

AbstractObjectivesWe conducted a pilot study to evaluate the feasibility of transendocardial delivery of autologous bone marrow (ABM) strategy in patients with severe symptomatic chronic myocardial ischemia not amenable to conventional revascularization.BackgroundTransendocardial injection of ABM cells appears to enhance perfusion of ischemic porcine myocardium.MethodsTen patients underwent transendocardial injection of freshly aspirated and filtered unfractionated ABM using left ventricular electromechanical guidance. Twelve injections of 0.2 ml each were successfully delivered into ischemic noninfarcted myocardium pre-identified by single-photon emission computed tomography perfusion imaging.ResultsAutologous bone marrow injection was successful in all patients and was associated with no serious adverse effects; in particular, there was no arrhythmia, evidence of infection, myocardial inflammation, or increased scar formation. Two patients were readmitted for recurrent chest pain. At three months, Canadian Cardiovascular Society angina score significantly improved (3.1 ± 0.3 vs. 2.0 ± 0.94, p = 0.001), as well as stress-induced ischemia occurring within the injected territories (2.1 ± 0.8 vs. 1.6 ± 0.8, p < 0.001). Treadmill exercise duration, available in nine patients, increased, but the change was not significant (391 ± 155 vs. 485 ± 198, p = 0.11).ConclusionsThis study provides preliminary clinical data indicating feasibility of catheter-based transendocardial delivery of ABM to ischemic myocardium

Evaluation of equity in informal land development systems in two Nigerian cities

The informal land development system in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is perceived to promote equity and could be leveraged to support sustainable urban development and management. However, scanty empirical evidence exists on the extent of the system’s provision of equity to support policy formulation and practice in the region. Based on stakeholder workshops, focus group discussions and questionnaire surveys, this study analyses the system’s provision of equity in Nigeria. The study finds all categories of people undertake informal developments. Consistent with literature, this finding reflects wide patronage of the informal land development system and its relevance. Nevertheless, contrary to the existing perception, the system’s provision of equity is low. The study recommends for the institution of pro-poor and gender sensitive land development and management policies and programmes to increase the levels of equity to support the achievement of the country’s sustainable urban development and management agenda

Feasibility and acceptability of ACT for the community case management of malaria in urban settings in five African sites

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The community case management of malaria (CCMm) is now an established route for distribution of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) in rural areas, but the feasibility and acceptability of the approach through community medicine distributors (CMD) in urban areas has not been explored. It is estimated that in 15 years time 50% of the African population will live in urban areas and transmission of the malaria parasite occurs in these densely populated areas.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Pre- and post-implementation studies were conducted in five African cities: Ghana, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Malawi. CMDs were trained to educate caregivers, diagnose and treat malaria cases in < 5-year olds with ACT. Household surveys, focus group discussions and in-depth interviews were used to evaluate impact.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Qualitative findings: In all sites, interviews revealed that caregivers' knowledge of malaria signs and symptoms improved after the intervention. Preference for CMDs as preferred providers for malaria increased in all sites.</p> <p>Quantitative findings: 9001 children with an episode of fever were treated by 199 CMDs in the five study sites. Results from the CHWs registers show that of these, 6974 were treated with an ACT and 6933 (99%) were prescribed the correct dose for their age. Fifty-four percent of the 3,025 children for which information about the promptness of treatment was available were treated within 24 hours from the onset of symptoms.</p> <p>From the household survey 3700 children were identified who had an episode of fever during the preceding two weeks. 1480 (40%) of them sought treatment from a CMD and 1213 of them (82%) had received an ACT. Of these, 1123 (92.6%) were administered the ACT for the correct number of doses and days; 773 of the 1118 (69.1%) children for which information about the promptness of treatment was available were treated within 24 hours from onset of symptoms, and 768 (68.7%) were treated promptly and correctly.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The concept of CCMm in an urban environment was positive, and caregivers were generally satisfied with the services. Quality of services delivered by CMDs and adherence by caregivers are similar to those seen in rural CCMm settings. The proportion of cases seen by CMDs, however, tended to be lower than was generally seen in rural CCMm. Urban CCMm is feasible, but it struggles against other sources of established healthcare providers. Innovation is required by everyone to make it viable.</p

Cardiovascular disease risk prediction in sub-Saharan African populations - Comparative analysis of risk algorithms in the RODAM study.

BACKGROUND: Validated absolute risk equations are currently recommended as the basis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in prevention and control strategies. However, there is no consensus on appropriate equations for sub-Saharan African populations. We assessed agreement between different cardiovascular risk equations among Ghanaian migrant and home populations with no overt CVD. METHODS: The 10-year CVD risks were calculated for 3586 participants aged 40-70years in the multi-centre RODAM study among Ghanaians residing in Ghana and Europe using the Framingham laboratory and non-laboratory and Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) algorithms. Participants were classified as low, moderate or high risk, corresponding to 20% respectively. Agreement between the risk algorithms was assessed using kappa and correlation coefficients. RESULTS: 19.4%, 12.3% and 5.8% were ranked as high 10-year CVD risk by Framingham non-laboratory, Framingham laboratory and PCE, respectively. The median (25th-75th percentiles) estimated 10-year CVD risk was 9.5% (5.4-15.7), 7.3% (3.9-13.2) and 5.0% (2.3-9.7) for Framingham non-laboratory, Framingham laboratory and PCE, respectively. The concordance between PCE and Framingham non-laboratory was better in the home Ghanaian population (kappa=0.42, r=0.738) than the migrant population (kappa=0.24, r=0.732) whereas concordance between PCE and Framingham laboratory was better in migrant Ghanaians (kappa=0.54, r=0.769) than the home population (kappa=0.51, r=0.758). CONCLUSION: CVD prediction with the same algorithm differs for the migrant and home populations and the interchangeability of Framingham laboratory and non-laboratory algorithms is limited. Validation against CVD outcomes is needed to inform appropriate selection of risk algorithms for use in African ancestry populations

Food variety, dietary diversity, and type 2 diabetes in a multi-center cross-sectional study among Ghanaian migrants in Europe and their compatriots in Ghana: the RODAM study.

PURPOSE: The importance of dietary diversification for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk remains controversial. We investigated associations of between- and within-food group variety with T2D, and the role of dietary diversification for the relationships between previously identified dietary patterns (DPs) and T2D among Ghanaian adults. METHODS: In the multi-center cross-sectional Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants (RODAM) Study (n = 3810; Ghanaian residence, 56%; mean age, 46.2 years; women, 63%), we constructed the Food Variety Score (FVS; 0-20 points), the Dietary Diversity Score (DDS; 0-7 points), and the Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I) variety component (0-20 points). The associations of these scores, of a "rice, pasta, meat and fish" DP, of a "mixed" DP, and of a "roots, tubers and plantain" DP with T2D were calculated by logistic regression. RESULTS: The FVS was inversely associated with T2D, adjusted for socio-demographic, lifestyle, and anthropometric factors [odds ratio (OR) for T2D per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase: 0.81; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.93]. The DDS and the DQI-I variety component were not associated with T2D. There was no association of the "mixed" DP and the "roots, tubers and plantain" DP with T2D. Yet, the "rice, pasta, meat and fish" DP is inversely associated with T2D (OR for T2D per 1 SD increase: 0.82; 95% CI 0.71-0.95); this effect was slightly attenuated by the FVS. CONCLUSIONS: In this Ghanaian population, between-food group variety may exert beneficial effects on glucose metabolism and partially explains the inverse association of the "rice, pasta, meat and fish" DP with T2D

Using Administrative Data to Count and Classify Households with Local Applications

Households rather than individuals are being increasingly used for research and to target and evaluate public policy. As a result accurate and timely household level statistics have become an increasing necessity especially at local level. However, official sources of information on households are fragmented with significant gaps and inaccuracies that limit their usefulness. This paper reviews present statistical arrangements and then describes a new approach to data collection and household classification which combine various local administrative sources. An intermediate step is the creation of local population counts which are converted into household types and these methods are described in two companion papers previously published in this journal. The utility and advantages of the approach are demonstrated using the example of the six Olympic London Boroughs for whom the data collection was undertaken in 2011 and the analysis subsequently