Cross-validated stepwise regression for identification of novel non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance associated mutations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Linear regression models are used to quantitatively predict drug resistance, the phenotype, from the HIV-1 viral genotype. As new antiretroviral drugs become available, new resistance pathways emerge and the number of resistance associated mutations continues to increase. To accurately identify which drug options are left, the main goal of the modeling has been to maximize predictivity and not interpretability. However, we originally selected linear regression as the preferred method for its transparency as opposed to other techniques such as neural networks. Here, we apply a method to lower the complexity of these phenotype prediction models using a 3-fold cross-validated selection of mutations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Compared to standard stepwise regression we were able to reduce the number of mutations in the reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitor models as well as the number of interaction terms accounting for synergistic and antagonistic effects. This reduction in complexity was most significant for the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) models, while maintaining prediction accuracy and retaining virtually all known resistance associated mutations as first order terms in the models. Furthermore, for etravirine (ETR) a better performance was seen on two years of unseen data. By analyzing the phenotype prediction models we identified a list of forty novel NNRTI mutations, putatively associated with resistance. The resistance association of novel variants at known NNRTI resistance positions: 100, 101, 181, 190, 221 and of mutations at positions not previously linked with NNRTI resistance: 102, 139, 219, 241, 376 and 382 was confirmed by phenotyping site-directed mutants.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We successfully identified and validated novel NNRTI resistance associated mutations by developing parsimonious resistance prediction models in which repeated cross-validation within the stepwise regression was applied. Our model selection technique is computationally feasible for large data sets and provides an approach to the continued identification of resistance-causing mutations.</p

Density‐ and size‐dependent mortality in fish early life stages

The importance of survival and growth variations early in life for population dynamics depends on the degrees of compensatory density dependence and size dependence in survival at later life stages. Quantifying density‐ and size‐dependent mortality at different juvenile stages is therefore important to understand and potentially predict the recruitment to the population. We applied a statistical state‐space modelling approach to analyse time series of abundance and mean body size of larval and juvenile fish. The focus was to identify the importance of abundance and body size for growth and survival through successive larval and juvenile age intervals, and to quantify how the dynamics propagate through the early life to influence recruitment. We thus identified both relevant ages and mechanisms (i.e. density dependence and size dependence in survival and growth) linking recruitment variability to early life dynamics. The analysis was conducted on six economically and ecologically important fish populations from cold temperate and sub‐arctic marine ecosystems. Our results underscore the importance of size for survival early in life. The comparative analysis suggests that size‐dependent mortality and density‐dependent growth frequently occur at a transition from pelagic to demersal habitats, which may be linked to competition for suitable habitat. The generality of this hypothesis warrants testing in future research.publishedVersio

From sea monsters to charismatic megafauna: changes in perception and use of large marine animals

Marine megafauna has always elicited contrasting feelings. In the past, large marine animals were often depicted as fantastic mythological creatures and dangerous monsters, while also arousing human curiosity. Marine megafauna has been a valuable resource to exploit, leading to the collapse of populations and local extinctions. In addition, some species have been perceived as competitors of fishers for marine resources and were often actively culled. Since the 1970s, there has been a change in the perception and use of megafauna. The growth of marine tourism, increasingly oriented towards the observation of wildlife, has driven a shift from extractive to non-extractive use, supporting the conservation of at least some species of marine megafauna. In this paper, we review and compare the changes in the perception and use of three megafaunal groups, cetaceans, elasmobranchs and groupers, with a special focus on European cultures. We highlight the main drivers and the timing of these changes, compare different taxonomic groups and species, and highlight the implications for management and conservation. One of the main drivers of the shift in perception, shared by all the three groups of megafauna, has been a general increase in curiosity towards wildlife, stimulated inter alia by documentaries (from the early 1970s onwards), and also promoted by easy access to scuba diving. At the same time, environmental campaigns have been developed to raise public awareness regarding marine wildlife, especially cetaceans, a process greatly facilitated by the rise of Internet and the World Wide Web. Currently, all the three groups (cetaceans, elasmobranchs and groupers) may represent valuable resources for ecotourism. Strikingly, the economic value of live specimens may exceed their value for human consumption. A further change in perception involving all the three groups is related to a growing understanding and appreciation of their key ecological role. The shift from extractive to non-extractive use has the potential for promoting species conservation and local economic growth. However, the change in use may not benefit the original stakeholders (e.g. fishers or whalers) and there may therefore be a case for providing compensation for disadvantaged stakeholders. Moreover, it is increasingly clear that even non-extractive use may have a negative impact on marine megafauna, therefore regulations are needed.SFRH/BPD/102494/2014, UID/MAR/04292/2019, IS1403info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio