Adoption, Maintenance and Diffusion of Stormwater Best Management Practices: Rain Barrels

Urbanization increases the volume of stormwater runoff from homes, businesses and other paved areas of the urbanized landscape. Unable to infiltrate into the ground, stormwater is directed to facilities that can easily become overloaded and cause a variety of water quality issues. This study aims to assess urban homeowners’ motivations to adopt and maintain rain barrels, a stormwater best management practice (BMP), and evaluate how this BMP diffuses throughout a community. This research took place in the Great Bend of the Wabash River (Lafayette-West Lafayette, Indiana) and Salt Creek (Valparaiso, Indiana) watersheds and featured a mail survey of 571 residents, site performance evaluations of 130 rain barrels, a “windshield” assessment of 242 rain barrels, and 31 in-person interviews. Our results show that 88% of homeowners in the Great Bend of the Wabash River watershed have maintained their rain barrels after two years and 65% of homeowners in Salt Creek watershed after 5 years. One of the biggest issues homeowners had with maintaining their rain barrels were issues with water pressure. We also found that 94% of rain barrel owners maintain a flower or vegetable garden and their primary motivation for adopting a rain barrel was to reduce water use for their yard or house. Outreach may need to focus more on the importance of maintaining the rain barrels as well as emphasizing the connection between rain barrels and personal gardening

Do advisors perceive climate change as an agricultural risk? An in-depth examination of Midwestern U.S. Ag advisors’ views on drought, climate change, and risk management

Through the lens of the Health Belief Model and Protection Motivation Theory, we analyzed interviews of 36 agricultural advisors in Indiana and Nebraska to understand their appraisals of climate change risk, related decision making processes and subsequent risk management advice to producers. Most advisors interviewed accept that weather events are a risk for US Midwestern agriculture; however, they are more concerned about tangible threats such as crop prices. There is not much concern about climate change among agricultural advisors. Management practices that could help producers adapt to climate change were more likely to be recommended by conservation and Extension advisors, while financial and crop advisors focused more upon season-to-season decision making (e.g., hybrid seeds and crop insurance). We contend that the agricultural community should integrate long-term thinking as part of farm decision making processes and that agricultural advisors are in a prime position to influence producers. In the face of increasing extreme weather events, climatologists and advisors should work more closely to reach a shared understanding of the risks posed to agriculture by climate change

Planet Hunters. VIII. Characterization of 41 Long-Period Exoplanet Candidates from Kepler Archival Data

The census of exoplanets is incomplete for orbital distances larger than 1 AU. Here, we present 41 long-period planet candidates in 38 systems identified by Planet Hunters based on Kepler archival data (Q0-Q17). Among them, 17 exhibit only one transit, 14 have two visible transits and 10 have more than three visible transits. For planet candidates with only one visible transit, we estimate their orbital periods based on transit duration and host star properties. The majority of the planet candidates in this work (75%) have orbital periods that correspond to distances of 1-3 AU from their host stars. We conduct follow-up imaging and spectroscopic observations to validate and characterize planet host stars. In total, we obtain adaptive optics images for 33 stars to search for possible blending sources. Six stars have stellar companions within 4". We obtain high-resolution spectra for 6 stars to determine their physical properties. Stellar properties for other stars are obtained from the NASA Exoplanet Archive and the Kepler Stellar Catalog by Huber et al. (2014). We validate 7 planet candidates that have planet confidence over 0.997 (3-{\sigma} level). These validated planets include 3 single-transit planets (KIC-3558849b, KIC-5951458b, and KIC-8540376c), 3 planets with double transits (KIC-8540376b, KIC-9663113b, and KIC-10525077b), and 1 planet with 4 transits (KIC-5437945b). This work provides assessment regarding the existence of planets at wide separations and the associated false positive rate for transiting observation (17%-33%). More than half of the long-period planets with at least three transits in this paper exhibit transit timing variations up to 41 hours, which suggest additional components that dynamically interact with the transiting planet candidates. The nature of these components can be determined by follow-up radial velocity and transit observations.Comment: Published on ApJ, 815, 127 Notations of validated planets are changed in accordance with naming convention of NASA Exoplanet Archiv

Correction for Johansson et al., An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

Correction for “An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics,” by Michael A. Johansson, Karyn M. Apfeldorf, Scott Dobson, Jason Devita, Anna L. Buczak, Benjamin Baugher, Linda J. Moniz, Thomas Bagley, Steven M. Babin, Erhan Guven, Teresa K. Yamana, Jeffrey Shaman, Terry Moschou, Nick Lothian, Aaron Lane, Grant Osborne, Gao Jiang, Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Justin Lessler, Nicholas G. Reich, Derek A. T. Cummings, Stephen A. Lauer, Sean M. Moore, Hannah E. Clapham, Rachel Lowe, Trevor C. Bailey, Markel García-Díez, Marilia Sá Carvalho, Xavier Rodó, Tridip Sardar, Richard Paul, Evan L. Ray, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Alexandria C. Brown, Xi Meng, Osonde Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas, David Manheim, Melinda Moore, Dhananjai M. Rao, Travis C. Porco, Sarah Ackley, Fengchen Liu, Lee Worden, Matteo Convertino, Yang Liu, Abraham Reddy, Eloy Ortiz, Jorge Rivero, Humberto Brito, Alicia Juarrero, Leah R. Johnson, Robert B. Gramacy, Jeremy M. Cohen, Erin A. Mordecai, Courtney C. Murdock, Jason R. Rohr, Sadie J. Ryan, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, Daniel P. Weikel, Antarpreet Jutla, Rakibul Khan, Marissa Poultney, Rita R. Colwell, Brenda Rivera-García, Christopher M. Barker, Jesse E. Bell, Matthew Biggerstaff, David Swerdlow, Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Brett M. Forshey, Juli Trtanj, Jason Asher, Matt Clay, Harold S. Margolis, Andrew M. Hebbeler, Dylan George, and Jean-Paul Chretien, which was first published November 11, 2019; 10.1073/pnas.1909865116. The authors note that the affiliation for Xavier Rodó should instead appear as Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) and Climate and Health Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal). The corrected author and affiliation lines appear below. The online version has been corrected

An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue

AGRARIAN CHANGE, AGROECOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATION AND THE COFFEE CRISIS IN COSTA RICA

Between 1999 and 2005 the deregulation of the international coffee commodity chain produced both a coffee crisis, characterized by the lowest prices ever for coffee farmers in producing countries, as well as a coffee boom within consuming countries as "the latte revolution" took shape. This research seeks to understand how social, economic and environmental change have unfolded in the producing country of Costa Rica following this coffee crisis. The impacts of two resistance strategies that peasant coffee farmers and their allies have deployed in the face of this crisis are tested: participation in Fair Trade marketing networks and the adoption of agroecological farming practices. Over six years of ethnographic community-based fieldwork, more than 70 agrobiodiversity inventories, archival research, semi-structured interviews, numerous farmer focus groups as well as a randomized survey of more than 100 farm-households were the main methodologies utilized to gather data for this research project.I find that Fair Trade price premiums were inconsequential in providing support for smallholder resistance to the coffee crisis in Costa Rica. I find pivotal, the role played by Costa Rican governmental institutions in a successful agroecological transition that reduced external input costs. This is significant because the process took place amidst the backdrop of "roll-back neoliberalism" characterized by privatization and declining state involvement in the provision of services. With no market, not even a "fair" one, able or willing to provide the training and unique resources these smallholders needed, the state not only stepped in, but was successful according to the results of this study. With innumerable environmental, social and economic spillover effects of this transition process accruing at several scales, the results of this study argue for the creation or redirection of state-led institutions with the power and support to conduct agroecological research and training, especially in the de-technification transitional process to low-external input agriculture

Do advisors perceive climate change as an agricultural risk? An in-depth examination of Midwestern U.S. Ag advisors’ views on drought, climate change, and risk management

Through the lens of the Health Belief Model and Protection Motivation Theory, we analyzed interviews of 36 agricultural advisors in Indiana and Nebraska to understand their appraisals of climate change risk, related decision making processes and subsequent risk management advice to producers. Most advisors interviewed accept that weather events are a risk for US Midwestern agriculture; however, they are more concerned about tangible threats such as crop prices. There is not much concern about climate change among agricultural advisors. Management practices that could help producers adapt to climate change were more likely to be recommended by conservation and Extension advisors, while financial and crop advisors focused more upon season-to-season decision making (e.g., hybrid seeds and crop insurance). We contend that the agricultural community should integrate long-term thinking as part of farm decision making processes and that agricultural advisors are in a prime position to influence producers. In the face of increasing extreme weather events, climatologists and advisors should work more closely to reach a shared understanding of the risks posed to agriculture by climate change

Vineyard-specific climate projections help growers manage risk and plan adaptation in the Paso Robles AVA

California's wine grape growers will face increasing challenges under a changing climate as most production occurs near the boundaries of current varieties' climatic thresholds. As part of this study, we developed a method for transforming downscaled climate information from the publicly available Cal-Adapt database into useful and useable climate projections for vineyard managers and advisors in the Paso Robles American Viticultural Area. We shared vineyard-specific projections during interviews of 20 managers and advisors. Overall, interviewees expressed trust in the projections and found them helpful in reducing their psychological distance from climate change. The projections prompted consideration of strategies for managing future climate risk and planning adaptation, with the majority of adaptations associated with long-term decisions such as row orientation, variety selection, dry farming, crop diversification and relocation. Agri-climatic decision support tools such as the one prototyped here may prove especially helpful for incorporating climate adaptation into the long-term business planning and vineyard redevelopment decisions facing managers and advisors in the near future. This approach could be extended to other California wine grape regions or to other perennial crops with expected vulnerabilities to climate change