Data report: X-ray fluorescence core scanning of IODP Site U1474 sediments, Natal Valley, southwest Indian Ocean, Expedition 361

X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning was conducted on core sections from International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1474, located in the Natal Valley off the coast of South Africa. The data were collected at 2 mm resolution along the 255 m length of the splice, but this setting resulted in noisy data. This problem was addressed by applying a 10 point running sum on the XRF data prior to converting peak area to element intensities. This effectively integrates 10 measurements into 1, representing an average over 2 cm resolution, and significantly improves noise in the data. With 25 calibration samples, whose element concentrations were derived using inductively coupled plasma–optical emission spectrometry, the XRF measurements were converted to concentrations using a univariate log-ratio calibration method. The resulting concentrations of terrigenously derived major elements (Al, Si, K, Ti, and Fe) are anticorrelated with Ca concentrations, indicating the main control on sediment chemistry is the variable proportion of terrigenous to in situ produced carbonate material

Development of a protocol to obtain the composition of terrigenous detritus in marine sediments -a pilot study from International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 361

The geochemical and isotopic composition of terrigenous clays from marine sediments can provide important information on the sources and pathways of sediments. International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 361 drilled sites along the eastern margin of southern Africa that potentially provide archives of rainfall on the continent as well as dispersal in the Agulhas Current. We used standard methods to remove carbonate and ferromanganese oxides and Stokes settling to isolate the clay fractions. In comparison to most previous studies that aimed to extract the detrital signal from marine sediments, we additionally applied a cation exchange wash using CsCl as a final step in the sample preparation. The motivation behind the extra step, not frequently applied, is to remove ions that are gained on the clay surface due to adsorption of authigenic trace metals in the ocean or during the leaching procedure. Either would alter the composition of the detrital fraction if no cation exchange was applied. Moreover, using CsCl will provide an additional measure of the cation exchange capacity (CEC) of the samples. However, no study so far has evaluated the potential and the limitations of such a targeted protocol for marine sediments. Here, we explore the effects of removing and replacing adsorbed cations on the clay surfaces with Cs+, conducting measurements of the chemical compositions, and radiogenic isotopes on a set of eight clay sample pairs. Both sets of samples underwent the same full leaching procedure except that one batch was treated with a final CsCl wash step. In this study, organic matter was not leached because sediments at IODP Site U1478 have relatively low organic content. However, in general, we recommend including that step in the leaching procedure. As expected, significant portions of elements with high concentrations in seawater were replaced by Cs+ (2SD 2.8%.) from the wash, including 75% of the sodium and approximately 25% of the calcium, 10% of the magnesium, and 8% of the potassium. Trace metals such as Sr and Nd, whose isotopes are used for provenance studies, are also found to be in lower concentrations in the samples after the exchange wash. The exchange wash affected the radiogenic isotope compositions of the samples. Neodymium isotope ratios are slightly less radiogenic in all the washed samples. Strontium and Pb isotopes showed significant deviations to either more or less radiogenic values in different samples. The radiogenic isotopes from the CsCl-treated fractions gave more consistent correlations with each other, and we suggest this treatment offers a superior measure of provenance. Although we observed changes in the isotope ratios, the general trend in the data and hence the overall provenance interpretations remained the same. However, the chemical compositions are significantly different. We conclude that a leaching protocol including a cation exchange wash (e.g. CsCl) is useful for revealing the terrestrial fingerprint. CEC could, with further calibration efforts, be useful as a terrestrial chemical weathering proxy

Uniting statistical and individual-based approaches for animal movement modelling

<div><p>The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems.</p></div

Economic Analysis of Water Supply Cost Structure in the Middle Olifants Sub-Basin of South Africa

Using data gathered from the National Treasury of South Africa, we examine the structure of water supply costs and tariffs of Water Service Authorities (WSAs) in the Middle Olifants sub-basin of South Africa. Using the translog cost function method, the marginal cost of water supply and economies of scale are estimated. Comparison of tariffs and marginal costs show that the estimated marginal cost is higher than the actual tariff paid by consumers. This implies that WSAs in the Middle Olifants are not charging enough to recover the costs of the water services. Thus, among other things, pricing of water at its marginal cost would partly assist in solving the cost recovery problem. Raised tariffs would in turn contribute to improved efficiency of water use. As evidenced by estimation results of returns to scale (greater than one), merger of WSAs would be economically advantageous. Hence, reversing the process of transferring water services’ authority to ‘local’ municipality level and thus up-scaling WSAs into the ‘district’ municipality level is an important policy option for improving water services efficiency in the Middle Olifants sub-basin of South Africa

Correction for Johansson et al., An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

Correction for “An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics,” by Michael A. Johansson, Karyn M. Apfeldorf, Scott Dobson, Jason Devita, Anna L. Buczak, Benjamin Baugher, Linda J. Moniz, Thomas Bagley, Steven M. Babin, Erhan Guven, Teresa K. Yamana, Jeffrey Shaman, Terry Moschou, Nick Lothian, Aaron Lane, Grant Osborne, Gao Jiang, Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Justin Lessler, Nicholas G. Reich, Derek A. T. Cummings, Stephen A. Lauer, Sean M. Moore, Hannah E. Clapham, Rachel Lowe, Trevor C. Bailey, Markel García-Díez, Marilia Sá Carvalho, Xavier Rodó, Tridip Sardar, Richard Paul, Evan L. Ray, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Alexandria C. Brown, Xi Meng, Osonde Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas, David Manheim, Melinda Moore, Dhananjai M. Rao, Travis C. Porco, Sarah Ackley, Fengchen Liu, Lee Worden, Matteo Convertino, Yang Liu, Abraham Reddy, Eloy Ortiz, Jorge Rivero, Humberto Brito, Alicia Juarrero, Leah R. Johnson, Robert B. Gramacy, Jeremy M. Cohen, Erin A. Mordecai, Courtney C. Murdock, Jason R. Rohr, Sadie J. Ryan, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, Daniel P. Weikel, Antarpreet Jutla, Rakibul Khan, Marissa Poultney, Rita R. Colwell, Brenda Rivera-García, Christopher M. Barker, Jesse E. Bell, Matthew Biggerstaff, David Swerdlow, Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Brett M. Forshey, Juli Trtanj, Jason Asher, Matt Clay, Harold S. Margolis, Andrew M. Hebbeler, Dylan George, and Jean-Paul Chretien, which was first published November 11, 2019; 10.1073/pnas.1909865116. The authors note that the affiliation for Xavier Rodó should instead appear as Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) and Climate and Health Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal). The corrected author and affiliation lines appear below. The online version has been corrected

First release of the Pelagic Size Structure database: global datasets of marine size spectra obtained from plankton imaging devices

In marine ecosystems, most physiological, ecological, or physical processes are size dependent. These include metabolic rates, the uptake of carbon and other nutrients, swimming and sinking velocities, and trophic interactions, which eventually determine the stocks of commercial species, as well as biogeochemical cycles and carbon sequestration. As such, broad-scale observations of plankton size distribution are important indicators of the general functioning and state of pelagic ecosystems under anthropogenic pressures. Here, we present the first global datasets of the Pelagic Size Structure database (PSSdb), generated from plankton imaging devices. This release includes the bulk particle normalized biovolume size spectrum (NBSS) and the bulk particle size distribution (PSD), along with their related parameters (slope, intercept, and R2) measured within the epipelagic layer (0–200 m) by three imaging sensors: the Imaging FlowCytobot (IFCB), the Underwater Vision Profiler (UVP), and benchtop scanners. Collectively, these instruments effectively image organisms and detrital material in the 7–10 000 µm size range. A total of 92 472 IFCB samples, 3068 UVP profiles, and 2411 scans passed our quality control and were standardized to produce consistent instrument-specific size spectra averaged to 1° × 1° latitude and longitude and by year and month. Our instrument-specific datasets span most major ocean basins, except for the IFCB datasets we have ingested, which were exclusively collected in northern latitudes, and cover decadal time periods (2013–2022 for IFCB, 2008–2021 for UVP, and 1996–2022 for scanners), allowing for a further assessment of the pelagic size spectrum in space and time. The datasets that constitute PSSdb's first release are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11050013 (Dugenne et al., 2024b). In addition, future updates to these data products can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7998799.</p

An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue