Low performance of prognostic tools for predicting dialysis in elderly people with advanced CKD

International audienceIntroduction Clinical decision-making about care plans can be difficult for very elderly people with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). Current guidelines propose the use of prognostic tools predicting end stage renal disease (ESRD) to assist in a patient-centered shared decision-making approach. Our objective was to evaluate the existing risk model scores predicting ESRD, from data collected for a French prospective multicenter cohort of mainly octogenarians with advanced CKD. Methods We performed a rapid review to identify the risk model scores predicting ESRD developed from CKD patient cohorts and evaluated them with data from a prospective multicenter French cohort of elderly (> 75 years) patients with advanced CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] < 20 mL/min/1.75m(2)), followed up for 5 years. We evaluated these scores (in absolute risk) for discrimination, calibration and the Brier score. For scores using the same time frame, we made a joint calibration curve and compared areas under the curve (AUCs). Results The PSPA cohort included 573 patients; their mean age was 83 years and their median eGFR was 13 mL/min/1.73 m(2). At the end of follow-up, 414 had died and 287 had started renal replacement therapy (RRT). Our rapid review found 12 scores that predicted renal replacement therapy. Five were evaluated: the TANGRI 4-variable, DRAWZ, MARKS, GRAMS, and LANDRAY scores. No score performed well in the PSPA cohort: AUCs ranged from 0.57 to 0.65, and Briers scores from 0.18 to 0.25. Conclusions The low predictiveness for ESRD of the scores tested in a cohort of octogenarian patients with advanced CKD underlines the need to develop new tools for this population. Graphic abstrac

Low performance of prognostic tools for predicting death before dialysis in older patients with advanced CKD

International audienceIntroduction Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a disease which is spreading worldwide, especially among older patients. Several prognostic scores have been developed to predict death in older CKD patients, but they have not been validated. We aimed to evaluate the existing risk scores for predicting death before dialysis start, identified via an in-depth review, in a cohort of elderly patients with advanced CKD. Methods We performed a review to identify scores predicting death, developed in and applicable to CKD patients. Each score was evaluated with an absolute risk calculation from the patients' baseline characteristics. We used a French prospective multicentre cohort of elderly patients (> 75 years) with advanced CKD [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 20 mL/min/1.73 m(2)], recruited from nephrological centres, with a 5-year follow-up. The outcome considered was death before initiating dialysis. Discrimination [area under curve (AUC)], calibration and Brier score were calculated for each score at its time frame. Results Our review found 6 equations predicting death before dialysis in CKD patients. Four of these (GOLDFARB, BANSAL, GRAMS 2 and 4 years) were evaluated. The validation cohort (Parcours de Soins des Personnes agees Parcours de Soins des Personnes agees, PSPA) included 573 patients, with a median age of 82 years and a median eGFR of 13 mL/min/1.73 m(2). At the end of follow-up, 287 (50%) patients had started dialysis and 238 (41%) patients had died before dialysis. The four equations evaluated showed average discrimination (AUC 0.61-0.70) and, concerning calibration, a global overestimation of the risk of death. Discussion The available scores predicting death before dialysis showed low performance among older patients with advanced CKD in a French multicentre cohort, indicating the need to upgrade them or develop new scores for this population

Treatment plans and outcomes in elderly patients reaching advanced chronic kidney disease

International audienceBackground - Elderly patients with advanced chronic kidney disease require accurate outcome descriptions to make treatment decisions. Methods - The PSPA [Parcours de soins des personnes âgées (Treatment pathways for elderly patients)] prospective multicentre cohort study included 573 such patients with a median age of 82 [interquartile range (IQR) 79-86] years and a median estimated glomerular filtration rate of 14 (IQR 11-17) mL/min/1.73 m2 and studied their 5-year outcomes according to the dialysis component of their treatment plans. Results - Mean follow-up for the overall cohort was 34.5 ± 21 months and the 5-year survival rate was 27%. During follow-up, 288 (50%) patients started dialysis and 237 (42%) died before dialysis. At baseline, the four possible dialysis plans were dialysis when needed (38%), stable without mention of a dialysis plan (40%) and dialysis specifically excluded by the patient's (9%) or nephrologist's decision (12%). These baseline plans were associated with death and dialysis start. Follow-up plans were those decided during the study period: dialysis when needed for 47%, stable without mention of a dialysis plan for 20% and dialysis excluded at any time for 32%. For the subgroup of patients who started dialysis, those whose follow-up plan was dialysis started under better conditions than those who had stable or no dialysis follow-up plans before starting. However, survival afterwards did not differ significantly. Conclusions - These findings indicate that nephrology care should accommodate changes over time in older patients' treatment preferences and plans concerning dialysis. These changes are associated with whether, when and how these patients initiate dialysis but are not necessarily associated with post-dialysis survival

Low incidence of SARS-CoV-2, risk factors of mortality and the course of illness in the French national cohort of dialysis patients

International audienceThe aim of this study was to estimate the incidence of COVID-19 disease in the French national population of dialysis patients, their course of illness and to identify the risk factors associated with mortality. Our study included all patients on dialysis recorded in the French REIN Registry in April 2020. Clinical characteristics at last follow-up and the evolution of COVID-19 illness severity over time were recorded for diagnosed cases (either suspicious clinical symptoms, characteristic signs on the chest scan or a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) for SARS-CoV-2. A total of 1,621 infected patients were reported on the REIN registry from March 16th, 2020 to May 4th, 2020. Of these, 344 died. The prevalence of COVID-19 patients varied from less than 1% to 10% between regions. The probability of being a case was higher in males, patients with diabetes, those in need of assistance for transfer or treated at a self-care unit. Dialysis at home was associated with a lower probability of being infected as was being a smoker, a former smoker, having an active malignancy, or peripheral vascular disease. Mortality in diagnosed cases (21%) was associated with the same causes as in the general population. Higher age, hypoalbuminemia and the presence of an ischemic heart disease were statistically independently associated with a higher risk of death. Being treated at a selfcare unit was associated with a lower risk. Thus, our study showed a relatively low frequency of COVID-19 among dialysis patients contrary to what might have been assumed

Incidence of severe critical events in paediatric anaesthesia (APRICOT): a prospective multicentre observational study in 261 hospitals in Europe

Background Little is known about the incidence of severe critical events in children undergoing general anaesthesia in Europe. We aimed to identify the incidence, nature, and outcome of severe critical events in children undergoing anaesthesia, and the associated potential risk factors. Methods The APRICOT study was a prospective observational multicentre cohort study of children from birth to 15 years of age undergoing elective or urgent anaesthesia for diagnostic or surgical procedures. Children were eligible for inclusion during a 2-week period determined prospectively by each centre. There were 261 participating centres across 33 European countries. The primary endpoint was the occurence of perioperative severe critical events requiring immediate intervention. A severe critical event was defined as the occurrence of respiratory, cardiac, allergic, or neurological complications requiring immediate intervention and that led (or could have led) to major disability or death. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01878760. Findings Between April 1, 2014, and Jan 31, 2015, 31â127 anaesthetic procedures in 30â874 children with a mean age of 6·35 years (SD 4·50) were included. The incidence of perioperative severe critical events was 5·2% (95% CI 5·0â5·5) with an incidence of respiratory critical events of 3·1% (2·9â3·3). Cardiovascular instability occurred in 1·9% (1·7â2·1), with an immediate poor outcome in 5·4% (3·7â7·5) of these cases. The all-cause 30-day in-hospital mortality rate was 10 in 10â000. This was independent of type of anaesthesia. Age (relative risk 0·88, 95% CI 0·86â0·90; p<0·0001), medical history, and physical condition (1·60, 1·40â1·82; p<0·0001) were the major risk factors for a serious critical event. Multivariate analysis revealed evidence for the beneficial effect of years of experience of the most senior anaesthesia team member (0·99, 0·981â0·997; p<0·0048 for respiratory critical events, and 0·98, 0·97â0·99; p=0·0039 for cardiovascular critical events), rather than the type of health institution or providers. Interpretation This study highlights a relatively high rate of severe critical events during the anaesthesia management of children for surgical or diagnostic procedures in Europe, and a large variability in the practice of paediatric anaesthesia. These findings are substantial enough to warrant attention from national, regional, and specialist societies to target education of anaesthesiologists and their teams and implement strategies for quality improvement in paediatric anaesthesia. Funding European Society of Anaesthesiology

Incidence of severe critical events in paediatric anaesthesia (APRICOT): a prospective multicentre observational study in 261 hospitals in Europe

Background Little is known about the incidence of severe critical events in children undergoing general anaesthesia in Europe. We aimed to identify the incidence, nature, and outcome of severe critical events in children undergoing anaesthesia, and the associated potential risk factors. Methods The APRICOT study was a prospective observational multicentre cohort study of children from birth to 15 years of age undergoing elective or urgent anaesthesia for diagnostic or surgical procedures. Children were eligible for inclusion during a 2-week period determined prospectively by each centre. There were 261 participating centres across 33 European countries. The primary endpoint was the occurence of perioperative severe critical events requiring immediate intervention. A severe critical event was defined as the occurrence of respiratory, cardiac, allergic, or neurological complications requiring immediate intervention and that led (or could have led) to major disability or death. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01878760. Findings Between April 1, 2014, and Jan 31, 2015, 31 127 anaesthetic procedures in 30 874 children with a mean age of 6.35 years (SD 4.50) were included. The incidence of perioperative severe critical events was 5.2% (95% CI 5.0-5.5) with an incidence of respiratory critical events of 3.1% (2.9-3.3). Cardiovascular instability occurred in 1.9% (1.7-2.1), with an immediate poor outcome in 5.4% (3.7-7.5) of these cases. The all-cause 30-day in-hospital mortality rate was 10 in 10 000. This was independent of type of anaesthesia. Age (relative risk 0.88, 95% CI 0.86-0.90; p<0.0001), medical history, and physical condition (1.60, 1.40-1.82; p<0.0001) were the major risk factors for a serious critical event. Multivariate analysis revealed evidence for the beneficial effect of years of experience of the most senior anaesthesia team member (0.99, 0.981-0.997; p<0.0048 for respiratory critical events, and 0.98, 0.97-0.99; p=0.0039 for cardiovascular critical events), rather than the type of health institution or providers. Interpretation This study highlights a relatively high rate of severe critical events during the anaesthesia management of children for surgical or diagnostic procedures in Europe, and a large variability in the practice of paediatric anaesthesia. These findings are substantial enough to warrant attention from national, regional, and specialist societies to target education of anaesthesiologists and their teams and implement strategies for quality improvement in paediatric anaesthesia