Numerical experiments on tsunami flow depth prediction for clustered areas using regression and machine learning models

Emergency responses during a massive tsunami disaster require information on the flow depth of land for rescue operations. This study aims to predict tsunami flow depth distribution in real time using regression and machine learning. Training data of 3480 earthquake-induced tsunamis in the Nankai Trough were constructed by numerical simulations. Initially, the k-means method was used to discriminate the areas with approximately the same flow depth. The number of clustered areas was 18, and the standard deviation of the flow depth data in a cluster was 0.46 m on average. The objective variables were the mean and standard deviation of the flow depth in the clustered areas. The explanatory variables were the maximum deviation of the water pressure at the seafloor observation points of the DONET observatory. We generated multiple regression equations for a power law using these datasets and the conjugate gradient method. Further, we employed the multilayer perceptron method, a machine learning technique, to evaluate the prediction performance. Both methods accurately predicted the tsunami flow depth calculated by testing 11 earthquake scenarios in the cabinet office of the government of Japan. The RMSE between the predicted and the true (via forward tsunami calculations) values of the mean flow depth ranged from 0.34–1.08 m. In addition to large-scale tsunami prediction systems, prediction methods with a robust and light computational load as used in this study are essential to prepare for unforeseen situations during large-scale earthquakes and tsunami disasters

A nonlinear parametric model based on a power law relationship for predicting the coastal tsunami height

When a subduction-zone earthquake occurs, the tsunami height must be predicted to cope with the damage generated by the tsunami. Therefore, tsunami height prediction methods have been studied using simulation data acquired by large-scale calculations. In this research, we consider the existence of a nonlinear power law relationship between the water pressure gauge data observed by the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) and the coastal tsunami height. Using this relationship, we propose a nonlinear parametric model and conduct a prediction experiment to compare the accuracy of the proposed method with those of previous methods and implement particular improvements to the extrapolation accuracy

Maximum tsunami height prediction using pressure gauge data by a Gaussian process at Owase in the Kii Peninsula, Japan

We constructed a model to predict the maximum tsunami height by a Gaussian process (GP) that uses pressure gauge data from the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) in the Nankai trough. We found a greatly improved generalization error of the maximum tsunami height by our prediction model. The error is about one third of that by a previous method, which tends to make larger predictions, especially for large tsunami heights (>10 m). These results indicate that GP enables us to get a more accurate prediction of tsunami height by using pressure gauge data

Frontotemporal dementia and parkinsonism linked to chromosome 17 (FTDP-17)

Frontotemporal dementia and parkinsonism linked to chromosome 17 (FTDP-17) is an autosomal dominant neurodegenerative disorder, which has three cardinal features: behavioral and personality changes, cognitive impairment, and motor symptoms. FTDP-17 was defined during the International Consensus Conference in Ann Arbor, Michigan, in 1996. The prevalence and incidence remain unknown but FTDP-17 is an extremely rare condition. It is caused by mutations in the tau gene, which encodes a microtubule-binding protein. Over 100 families with 38 different mutations in the tau gene have been identified worldwide. The phenotype of FTDP-17 varies not only between families carrying different mutations but also between and within families carrying the same mutations. The pathogenetic mechanisms underlying the disorder are thought to be related to the altered proportion of tau isoforms or to the ability of tau to bind microtubules and to promote microtubule assembly. Definitive diagnosis of FTDP-17 requires a combination of characteristic clinical and pathological features and molecular genetic analysis. Genetic counseling should be offered to affected and at-risk individuals; for most subtypes, penetrance is incomplete. Currently, treatment for FTDP-17 is only symptomatic and supportive. The prognosis and rate of the disease's progression vary considerably among individual patients and genetic kindreds, ranging from life expectancies of several months to several years, and, in exceptional cases, as long as two decades

Clinical application of removable partial dentures using thermoplastic resin—Part I: Definition and indication of non-metal clasp dentures

AbstractThis position paper proposes a definition and naming standard for removable partial dentures (RPDs) using thermoplastic resin, and presents a guideline for clinical application. A panel of 14 experts having broad experience with clinical application of RPDs using thermoplastic resin was selected from members of the Japan Prosthodontic Society. At a meeting of the panel, “non-metal clasp denture” was referred as the generic name of RPDs with retentive elements (resin clasps) made of thermoplastic resin. The panel classified non-metal clasp dentures into two types: one with a flexible structure that lacks a metal framework and the other having a rigid structure that includes a metal framework. According to current prosthetic principles, flexible non-metal clasp dentures are not recommended as definitive dentures, except for limited cases such as patients with a metal allergy. Rigid non-metal clasp dentures are recommended in cases where patients will not accept metal clasps for esthetic reasons. Non-metal clasp dentures should follow the same design principles as conventional RPDs using metal clasps

Nationwide retrospective observational study of idiopathic dendriform pulmonary ossification : clinical features with a progressive phenotype

Background: Diffuse pulmonary ossification is a specific lung condition that is accompanied by underlying diseases. However, idiopathic dendriform pulmonary ossification (IDPO) is extremely rare, and the clinical features remain unclear. In this study, we aimed to report the clinical characteristics of IDPO. Methods: We conducted a nationwide survey of patients with IDPO from 2017 to 2019 in Japan and evaluated the clinical, radiological, and histopathological findings of patients diagnosed with IDPO. Results: Twenty-two cases of IDPO were identified. Most subjects (82%) were male, aged 22-56 years (mean (SD), 37.9 (9.1)) at diagnosis. Nearly 80% of the subjects were asymptomatic, and the condition was discovered during a medical check-up. However, 36% of the subjects showed a decline in forced vital capacity (%FVC) predicted <80% at diagnosis. The typical radiological features of high-resolution CT (HRCT) are calcified branching structures that are predominantly distributed in the lower lung fields without any other conspicuous finding. Histopathological analysis also showed dendriform ossified lesions from the intraluminal areas to interstitial areas. Notably, during the follow-up period of 20 years, disease progression was found in 88% on HRCT and more than 50% on pulmonary function tests (FVC and/or forced expiratory volume in 1s). Two cases with rapid decline of 10% /year in %FVC predicted were observed.)) at diagnosis. Nearly 80% of the subjects were asymptomatic, and the condition was discovered during a medical check-up. However, 36% of the subjects showed a decline in forced vital capacity (%FVC) predicted <80% at diagnosis. The typical radiological features of high-resolution CT (HRCT) are calcified branching structures that are predominantly distributed in the lower lung fields without any other conspicuous finding. Histopathological analysis also showed dendriform ossified lesions from the intraluminal areas to interstitial areas. Notably, during the follow-up period of 20 years, disease progression was found in 88% on HRCT and more than 50% on pulmonary function tests (FVC and/or forced expiratory volume in 1s). Two cases with rapid decline of 10% /year in %FVC predicted were observed. )) at diagnosis. Nearly 80% of the subjects wereasymptomatic, and the condition was discovered during a medical check-up. However, 36% of the subjects showed a decline in forced vital capacity (%FVC) predicted <80% at diagnosis. The typical radiological features of high-resolution CT (HRCT) are calcified branching structures that are predominantly distributed in the lower lung fields without any other conspicuous finding. Histopathological analysis also showed dendriform ossified lesions from the intraluminal areas to interstitial areas. Notably, during the follow-up period of 20 years, disease progression was found in 88% on HRCT and more than 50% on pulmonary function tests (FVC and/or forced expiratory volume in 1s). Two cases with rapid decline of 10% /year in %FVC predicted were observed. Conclusions: IDPO develops at a young age with gradually progressive phenotype. Further research and long-term (>20 years) follow-up are required to clarify the pathogenesis and clinical findings in IDPO