On the choice of ensemble mean for estimating the forced signal in the presence of internal variability

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.In this paper we examine various options for the calculation of the forced signal in climate model simulations, and the impact these choices have on the estimates of internal variability. We find that an ensemble mean of runs from a single climate model [a single model ensemble mean (SMEM)] provides a good estimate of the true forced signal even for models with very few ensemble members. In cases where only a single member is available for a given model, however, the SMEM from other models is in general out-performed by the scaled ensemble mean from all available climate model simulations [the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM)]. The scaled MMEM may therefore be used as an estimate of the forced signal for observations. The MMEM method, however, leads to increasing errors further into the future, as the different rates of warming in the models causes their trajectories to diverge. We therefore apply the SMEM method to those models with a sufficient number of ensemble members to estimate the change in the amplitude of internal variability under a future forcing scenario. In line with previous results, we find that on average the surface air temperature variability decreases at higher latitudes, particularly over the ocean along the sea ice margins, while variability in precipitation increases on average, particularly at high latitudes. Variability in sea level pressure decreases on average in the Southern Hemisphere, while in the Northern Hemisphere there are regional differences.This work was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) through grants to L. M. F. (DE170100367) and to M. H. E. through the ARC Centre of Excellence in Climate System Science (CE110001028). J. B. K. is supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/N005783/1). B. A. S. was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (EAR-1447048)

Two-dimensional gravitation and Sine-Gordon-Solitons

Some aspects of two-dimensional gravity coupled to matter fields, especially to the Sine-Gordon-model are examined. General properties and boundary conditions of possible soliton-solutions are considered. Analytic soliton-solutions are discovered and the structure of the induced space-time geometry is discussed. These solutions have interesting features and may serve as a starting point for further investigations.Comment: 23 pages, latex, references added, to appear in Phys.Rev.

Predictors of Ventriculostomy Infection in a Large Cohort

Introduction: External ventricular drains (EVDs) are neurosurgical devices used to treat hydrocephalus and monitor intracranial pressure. Ventriculostomy-associated infections (VAIs) are a complication of EVD placement associated with increased morbidity and mortality, as well as cost. A previous study at Jefferson reported a decrease in VAI’s with the use of antibiotic-coated catheters. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the current rate of VAI’s and determine risk factors associated with infections. Methods: Using Epic, the electronic medical records software, we conducted a retrospective review of patients who underwent EVD placement at Thomas Jefferson University Hospital and Jefferson Hospital for Neuroscience between January 2010 and January 2018. Results: During this time period, 1107 EVD’s were placed in 1034 patients. The most common indications for placement were acute subarachnoid hemorrhage (51%), intraparenchymal hemorrhage (15.4%), and brain tumors (9.7%). 38 patients suffered from a VAI, for an infection rate of 0.03%. Patients with VAI’s had a significantly longer duration of EVD placement (19.4 vs. 11.1 days). Risk factors for VAI included CSF leak (OR 2.35), EVD placement greater than 11 days (OR 2.14), and concurrent infection (OR 1.74). There was no association with patient age, sex, initial diagnosis, drain replacement, number of samples drawn, or prophylactic antibiotics. Discussion: Despite the use of antibiotic-coated catheters, VAI’s still remain a prevalent complication of EVD placement. By working to prevent CSF leaks, minimize the duration of EVD placement, and appropriately treat concurrent infections, it may be possible to further lower VAI rates

Development of mental health first aid guidelines for suicidal ideation and behaviour: A Delphi study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Suicide is a statistically rare event, but devastating to those left behind and one of the worst possible outcomes associated with mental illness. Although a friend, family member or co-worker may be the first person to notice that a person is highly distressed, few have the knowledge and skills required to assist. Simple guidelines may help such a person to encourage a suicidal individual to seek professional help or decide against suicide.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This research was conducted using the Delphi methodology, a method of reaching consensus in a panel of experts. Experts recruited to the panels included 22 professionals, 10 people who had been suicidal in the past and 6 carers of people who had been suicidal in the past. Statements about how to assist someone who is thinking about suicide were sourced through a systematic search of both professional and lay literature. The guidelines were written using the items most consistently endorsed by all three panels.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 114 statements presented to the panels, 30 were accepted. These statements were used to develop the guidelines appended to this paper.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There are a number of actions which are considered to be useful for members of the public when they encounter someone who is experiencing suicidal thoughts or engaging in suicidal behaviour. These guidelines will be useful in revision of curricula of mental health first aid and suicide intervention training programs. They can also be used by members of the public who want immediate information about how to assist a suicidal person.</p

Suicide ideation of individuals in online social networks

Suicide explains the largest number of death tolls among Japanese adolescents in their twenties and thirties. Suicide is also a major cause of death for adolescents in many other countries. Although social isolation has been implicated to influence the tendency to suicidal behavior, the impact of social isolation on suicide in the context of explicit social networks of individuals is scarcely explored. To address this question, we examined a large data set obtained from a social networking service dominant in Japan. The social network is composed of a set of friendship ties between pairs of users created by mutual endorsement. We carried out the logistic regression to identify users' characteristics, both related and unrelated to social networks, which contribute to suicide ideation. We defined suicide ideation of a user as the membership to at least one active user-defined community related to suicide. We found that the number of communities to which a user belongs to, the intransitivity (i.e., paucity of triangles including the user), and the fraction of suicidal neighbors in the social network, contributed the most to suicide ideation in this order. Other characteristics including the age and gender contributed little to suicide ideation. We also found qualitatively the same results for depressive symptoms.Comment: 4 figures, 9 table

Mucosal Application of gp140 Encoding DNA Polyplexes to Different Tissues Results in Altered Immunological Outcomes in Mice

Increasing evidence suggests that mucosally targeted vaccines will enhance local humoral and cellular responses whilst still eliciting systemic immunity. We therefore investigated the capacity of nasal, sublingual or vaginal delivery of DNA-PEI polyplexes to prime immune responses prior to mucosal protein boost vaccination. Using a plasmid expressing the model antigen HIV CN54gp140 we show that each of these mucosal surfaces were permissive for DNA priming and production of antigen-specific antibody responses. The elicitation of systemic immune responses using nasally delivered polyplexed DNA followed by recombinant protein boost vaccination was equivalent to a systemic prime-boost regimen, but the mucosally applied modality had the advantage in that significant levels of antigen-specific IgA were detected in vaginal mucosal secretions. Moreover, mucosal vaccination elicited both local and systemic antigen-specific IgG(+) and IgA(+) antibody secreting cells. Finally, using an Influenza challenge model we found that a nasal or sublingual, but not vaginal, DNA prime/protein boost regimen protected against infectious challenge. These data demonstrate that mucosally applied plasmid DNA complexed to PEI followed by a mucosal protein boost generates sufficient antigen-specific humoral antibody production to protect from mucosal viral challenge

Telomere disruption results in non-random formation of de novo dicentric chromosomes involving acrocentric human chromosomes

Copyright: © 2010 Stimpson et al.Genome rearrangement often produces chromosomes with two centromeres (dicentrics) that are inherently unstable because of bridge formation and breakage during cell division. However, mammalian dicentrics, and particularly those in humans, can be quite stable, usually because one centromere is functionally silenced. Molecular mechanisms of centromere inactivation are poorly understood since there are few systems to experimentally create dicentric human chromosomes. Here, we describe a human cell culture model that enriches for de novo dicentrics. We demonstrate that transient disruption of human telomere structure non-randomly produces dicentric fusions involving acrocentric chromosomes. The induced dicentrics vary in structure near fusion breakpoints and like naturally-occurring dicentrics, exhibit various inter-centromeric distances. Many functional dicentrics persist for months after formation. Even those with distantly spaced centromeres remain functionally dicentric for 20 cell generations. Other dicentrics within the population reflect centromere inactivation. In some cases, centromere inactivation occurs by an apparently epigenetic mechanism. In other dicentrics, the size of the alpha-satellite DNA array associated with CENP-A is reduced compared to the same array before dicentric formation. Extrachromosomal fragments that contained CENP-A often appear in the same cells as dicentrics. Some of these fragments are derived from the same alpha-satellite DNA array as inactivated centromeres. Our results indicate that dicentric human chromosomes undergo alternative fates after formation. Many retain two active centromeres and are stable through multiple cell divisions. Others undergo centromere inactivation. This event occurs within a broad temporal window and can involve deletion of chromatin that marks the locus as a site for CENP-A maintenance/replenishment.This work was supported by the Tumorzentrum Heidelberg/Mannheim grant (D.10026941)and by March of Dimes Research Foundation grant #1-FY06-377 and NIH R01 GM069514

Cellulolytic Bacteria in the foregut of the dromedary camel (Camelus dromedarius)

Foregut digesta from five feral dromedary camels were inoculated into three different enrichment media: cotton thread, filter paper, and neutral detergent fiber. A total of 283 16S rRNA gene sequences were assigned to 33 operational taxonomic units by using 99% species-level identity. LIBSHUFF revealed significant differences in the community composition across all three libraries