40 research outputs found
Modeliranje korelacija u kreditnom portfelju
U ovom diplomskom radu cilj je pružiti pristupaÄan uvod u temelje modeliranja kreditnog portfelja. KreÄemo do osnovnih pojmova iz vjerojatnosti i statistike, a zatim postupno ulazimo u svijet upravljanja kreditnim rizikom kroz pojmove oÄekivanog i neoÄekivanog gubitka, gdje možemo vidjeti i bitnu ulogu korelacija, te distribucije gubitka i naÄina kako je dobiti. Zatim, kreÄemo s modeliranjem koreliranih defaulta pomoÄu dva pristupa. Uz teoretsku podlogu, upoznajemo i modele predstavnike tih pristupa. TakoÄer, specifikacijom uvodimo jednofaktorski (CreditMetrics /KMV), odnosno jednosektorski (CreditRisk) model te nakon njihove usporedbe zavrÅ”avamo praktiÄnim primjerom.This thesis goal is to provide accessible introduction to the foundations of the credit portfolio modelling. We start from the basic concepts of probability and statistics, and then gradually enter the world of credit risk management through the terms of the expected and unexpected loss (where we first see the important role of the correlations), distribution loss and ways to get it. Then, we use two approaches to the modeling of correlated defaults and get introduced to representatives of these approaches. We also look in more detail at portfolios with uniform dependency structure, namely one-factor (CreditMetrics /KMV), respectively one-sector (CreditRisk) models and after their comparison we conclude this thesis with working exampl
DETERMINANTE VALUTNIH POREMEÄAJA U TRANZICIJSKIM GOSPODARSTVIMA SREDNJE I ISTOÄNE EUROPE
This paper explores how the "signals" approach can be used to examine determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies during 1990s.We construct the measure of a currency disturbance - an index of foreign exchange market pressure as a referent series. The "signals" approach is used in constructing an effective system of early warning indicators for each country. The system monitors the behavior of various macroeconomic and financial variables that exhibit an unusual pattern in the periods preceding a disturbance or a crisis. By comparing the resulting systems of early warning indicators we are searching for common determinants of currency disturbances in transition countries in the sample.Ovaj rad ispituje moguÄnost primjene signalne metode analize u otkrivanju uzroÄnika valutnih poremeÄaja i kriza u tranzicijskim zemljama tijekom 1990-tih godina. S tim je ciljem konstruirana mjera za otkrivanje ozbljnijih valutnih poremeÄaja - tzv. indeks pritiska na deviznom tržiÅ”tu, koji se koristi kao referentna serija u istraživanju. Primjenom signalne metode moguÄe je izraditi sustave za rano upozorenje valutnih kriza za promatrane zemlje uzroka. Takvi sustavi omoguÄuju praÄenje razliÄitih makroekonomskih i financijskih varijabli, Äije ponaÅ”anje u pretkriznim razdobljima bitno odstupa od njihova kretanja u normalnim razdobljima. Krajnji cilj ovog rada je potraga za moguÄim zajedniÄkim uzroÄnicima valutnih poremeÄaja tijekom 90-tih u promatranim tranzicijskim ekonomijama
A brand new CROLEI ā do we need a new forecasting index?
The aim of this paper is to determine whether the existing leading indicators system CROLEI (CROatian Leading Economic Indicators) and its derivative, the CROLEI forecasting index, predict overall Croatian economic activity reliably. The need to evaluate the CROLEI system and the index stems from the modification of the barometric method on which the system and the index are founded on in its application in Croatia. The evaluation of the forecasting power involved the construction of six alternative forecasting indices, which not only challenge the original CROLEI index, but also enable comparisons of forecasting power. The construction of the alternative forecasting indices is also based on the barometric method. The authors then proceed to adjust more complex measurements i.e. forecasting power evaluation matrix, in order to obtain credible forecasting power estimates. Forecasting power is also estimated using two regression models that allow for the forecasting of reference series and yield measurements of forecasting power. The results of both approaches indicate not only that the original CROLEI has by far the greatest forecasting power, but also that it is able to predict the turning points in the economic cycle with the highest probability
CROLEI u novome ruhu: treba li nam novi prognostiÄki indeks?
Cilj je rada utvrditi omoguÄuje li postojeÄi prognostiÄki sustav i njegov rezultat, prognostiÄki indeks CROLEI, pouzdano predviÄanje ukupnih gospodarskih kretanja u Hrvatskoj. Potreba da se sustav i indeks vrednuju potjeÄe iz modifikacije barometarske metode na kojoj se sustav i indeks zasnivaju i primjenjuju. Proces vrednovanja prognostiÄke moÄi zapoÄinje konstruiranjem Å”est alternativnih prognostiÄkih indeksa na osnovi barometarske metode, koji osim Å”to konkuriraju izvornome indeksu, omoguÄuju usporedbu prognostiÄke snage indeksa. Slijede prilagodbe složenijih mjera kojima se procjenjuje kvaliteta prognostiÄkih sustava i njihovih indeksa obuhvaÄenih matricom vrednovanja prognostiÄkih pokazatelja. PrognostiÄka se snaga ocjenjuje i dvama regresijskim modelima, koji dodatno omoguÄuju prognoziranje referentne serije i daju ocjenu prognoze. Rezultati mjera prognostiÄke moÄi usuglaÅ”eno upuÄuju na to da izvorni CROLEI indeks ima najveÄu prognostiÄku snagu te da s najveÄom vjerojatnoÅ”Äu navjeÅ”Äuje zaokret u gospodarskoj aktivnosti
Inovacijski sustavi u hrvatskim regijama
The goal of this paper was to research and apply the concept of
Regional Innovation Systems (RIS) to Croatian regions and to
identify particular strengths supporting innovation diffusion as a
source of regional competitiveness. A system of indicators is
envisaged, with the choice of RIS dimensions and indicators
largely relying on Evangelista, Iammarino, Mastrostefano, and
Silvani (2001). In total, 32 relevant regional indicators are
grouped into three dimensions ā Knowledge creation and
dissemination, Firm innovation activity and Systems' performance.
Regional heterogeneity is noted with respect to innovation
capacities in the 2006ā2010 period: North-West Croatia
is leading in the diffusion of innovation, with overall RIS configuration
most conducive to innovation activity; Central and
East Croatia (CEC) has a distinct value chain in agriculture and
low-technology industries and industries' needs for technological
upgrading are resolved through external R&D (acquisition of
licenses, patents and know-how), backed up by strong public
financing; Adriatic Croatia is underperforming in innovation
activity, given the advantages it has over CEC in important
elements of systemic dimensions such as entrepreneurial and
technological infrastructure and in scientific capacities. Policy
implications are drawn from highlighted regional differences in
innovation capacities and in sectoral structures.Cilj je ovoga rada istražiti koncepciju regionalnih inovacijskih
sustava (RIS) i primijeniti je na hrvatske regije, pa potom
prepoznati regionalne prednosti koje podržavaju difuziju
inovacija kao izvor regionalne konkurentnosti. S tom svrhom
osmiŔljen je sustav pokazatelja, s time da se u izboru
dimenzija i pokazatelja toga sustava uvelike slijedio rad
autora Evangelista, Iammarino, Mastrostefano i Silvani
(2001). Ukupno 32 regionalna indikatora svrstana su u tri
dimenzije RIS-a, a to su: stvaranje i diseminacija znanja;
inovacijska aktivnost poduzeÄa i uÄinkovitost sustava. MeÄu
regijama je zamijeÄena heterogenost u pogledu inovacijskih
kapaciteta izmeÄu 2006. i 2010. godine. Sjeverozapadna
Hrvatska vodeÄa je u difuziji inovacija s RIS-om koji ima
najbolje preduvjete za razvoj inovacijskih aktivnosti. SrediŔnja
i istoÄna Hrvatska (SIH) ima specifiÄan lanac vrijednosti u
poljoprivredi i niskotehnoloŔkim industrijama te industrije u
ovoj regiji svoje potrebe za tehnoloÅ”kim unapreÄenjem
rjeÅ”avaju ulaganjem u I&R izvan poduzeÄa (stjecanjem
licencija, patenata i know-howa), uz snažnu podrŔku javnih
izvora financiranja. Jadranska Hrvatska ostvaruje slabije
rezultate u inovacijskim aktivnostima kada se razmotre
prednosti koje ova regija ima u usporedbi sa SIH u važnim
elementima sistemskih dimenzija kao Å”to su poduzetniÄka i
tehnoloŔka infrastruktura te znanstveni kapaciteti. Na osnovi
opaženih regionalnih razlika u inovacijskim kapacitetima
dane su preporuke za relevantne politike, poÅ”tujuÄi pritom i
sektorske razlike meÄu regijama
Potencijal Hrvatske za policentriÄni razvitak
The purpose of this paper is to analyse Croatia's potential
to integrate the concept of polycentric development ā an
even development of equally spaced urban centres which
also aims at lessening regional disparities ā into its regional
development policy. By applying the polycentricity index to
the Croatian data, following Meijers and Sandberg's
methodological approach (2006), Croatia is found to be
moderately polycentric. However, the rank-size distribution
indicates that Zagreb is too large, whereas the larger cities
that follow Zagreb are insufficiently large. When using NUTS
level 2 data, regional disparities in Croatia are at the level of
the European Union, but when county data are used, the
level of disparities increase. This indicates that polycentricity
has not fully been exploited in terms of connectivity and
cooperation of cities. A cross-section analysis of regional
disparities in Croatia has confirmed that more successful
counties have higher proportions of a workforce with higher
educational attainment. Urban impact and openness to
international trade appear relevant when the variable
"workforce with higher educational attainment" is omitted;
therefore, better performing counties have higher shares of
population in their urban centres and are more open to
international trade.Cilj je ovoga rada bio istražiti ima li Hrvatska potencijal za
usvajanje koncepcije policentriÄnoga razvitka kao
ravnomjernoga razvitka podjednako udaljenih urbanih srediŔta,
kojem je i svrha smanjenje regionalnih nejednakosti, u svojoj
regionalnoj razvojnoj politici. Primjenom indeksa policentriÄnosti
prema metodoloŔkom pristupu Meijers i Sandberga (2006) na
hrvatske podatke, ustanovljeno je da je Hrvatska umjereno
policentriÄna. No distribucija gradova prema poretku i veliÄini
pokazuje da je Zagreb prevelik, dok su veÄi gradovi koji slijede
Zagreb nedovoljno veliki. Nadalje, mjere regionalnih
nejednakosti za Hrvatsku upuÄuju na prosjeÄan stupanj
nejednakosti u usporedbi s Europskom unijom kada se koriste
podaci NUTS razine 2, a kada se koriste podaci o županijama,
stupanj nejednakosti se poveÄava. To pokazuje da
policentriÄnost nije potpuno iskoriÅ”tena u pogledu povezanosti i
suradnje gradova. Analizom presjeka regionalnih nejednakosti
u Hrvatskoj utvrÄeno je da su uspjeÅ”nije županije koje imaju veÄi
udio radne snage veÄeg obrazovnog dostignuÄa. U rezultatima
specifikacije modela u kojem je izostavljena varijabla "radna
snaga veÄeg obrazovnog dostignuÄa", urbani utjecaj i otvorenost
prema meÄunarodnoj trgovini pokazuju se znaÄajnima, pa su
uspjeÅ”nije županije koje imaju veÄi udio stanovniÅ”tva u svojim
urbanim srediÅ”tima i koje su otvorenije prema meÄunarodnoj
trgovini
PROGNOZIRANJE POSLOVNIH CIKLUSA I CIKLUSA RASTA U HRVATSKOJ
This paper is a report on the development and the performance of the
composite leading indicator of the Croatian economy ā CROLEI, those purpose is to forecast classical business and growth cycles. The structure of the paper follows the latest CROLEI revision, based on NBER barometric method. After briefly describing the characteristics of CROLEI and its database, the turning points in the reference series (industrial production) are determined by applying Bry-Boschan algorithm. By combining the graphic analysis, Granger causality and Wald exclusion test on potential leading time series and the reference series, the list of 15 best leading series is compiled. Recursive estimation of Granger test is applied to check whether the time seriesĀ“ leading properties are stabile over time. Then 14 composite leading indicators are constructed from 15 best leading series. In order to decide which composite indicator yields the best forecasts, Granger causality test is used. New CROLEI indicator is composed of 7 series and leads the reference series by 8 months. Additionally, a diffusion index - an auxiliary tool for forecasting business and growth cycles - is constructed.Ovaj Älanak opisuje razvoj i prognostiÄka svojstva kompozitnog prethodeÄeg pokazatelja hrvatskog gospodarstva - CROLEI, svrha kojeg je da prognozira poslovne cikluse i cikluse rasta. Struktura Älanka slijedi tijek zadnje revizije CROLEI pokazatelja, zasnovane na NBER barometarskoj metodi. Nakon Å”to se ukratko opisuju osnovne
karakteristike CROLEI pokazatelja i njegove baze podataka, prelazi se na odreÄivanje toÄaka zaokreta u referentnoj seriji (indeks volumena industrijske proizvodnje) pomoÄu Bry-Boschan algoritma. KombinirajuÄi grafi Äku analizu, test Grangerove uzroÄnosti i Waldov test iskljuÄenja, dolazi se do liste od 15 vremenskih serija s najboljim prethodeÄim svojstvima. Rekurzivna ocjena Grangerovog testa se primjenjuje da bi se utvrdilo jesu li prethodeÄa svojstva vremenskih serija stabilna tijekom promatranog razdoblja. Zatim se od 15 najboljih serija konstruira 14 kompozitnih prethodeÄih pokazatelja. Grangerov test se pritom primjenjuje da bi se odluÄilo koji od 14 pokazatelja ima najbolja prognostiÄka svojstva. Novi CROLEI pokazatelj je sastavljen od 7 vremenskih serija i prethodi referentnoj
seriji 8 mjeseci. Osim novog CROLEI pokazatelja, izraÄunat je i indeks rasipanja, koji je pomoÄna mjera za predviÄanje poslovnih ciklusa i ciklusa rasta
FORECASTING BUSINESS AND GROWTH CYCLES IN CROATIA
Ovaj Älanak opisuje razvoj i prognostiÄka svojstva kompozitnog prethodeÄeg pokazatelja hrvatskog gospodarstva - CROLEI, svrha kojeg je da prognozira poslovne cikluse i cikluse rasta. Struktura Älanka slijedi tijek zadnje revizije CROLEI pokazatelja, zasnovane na NBER barometarskoj metodi. Nakon Å”to se ukratko opisuju osnovne
karakteristike CROLEI pokazatelja i njegove baze podataka, prelazi se na odreÄivanje toÄaka zaokreta u referentnoj seriji (indeks volumena industrijske proizvodnje) pomoÄu Bry-Boschan algoritma. KombinirajuÄi grafi Äku analizu, test Grangerove uzroÄnosti i Waldov test iskljuÄenja, dolazi se do liste od 15 vremenskih serija s najboljim prethodeÄim svojstvima. Rekurzivna ocjena Grangerovog testa se primjenjuje da bi se utvrdilo jesu li prethodeÄa svojstva vremenskih serija stabilna tijekom promatranog razdoblja. Zatim se od 15 najboljih serija konstruira 14 kompozitnih prethodeÄih pokazatelja. Grangerov test se pritom primjenjuje da bi se odluÄilo koji od 14 pokazatelja ima najbolja prognostiÄka svojstva. Novi CROLEI pokazatelj je sastavljen od 7 vremenskih serija i prethodi referentnoj
seriji 8 mjeseci. Osim novog CROLEI pokazatelja, izraÄunat je i indeks rasipanja, koji je pomoÄna mjera za predviÄanje poslovnih ciklusa i ciklusa rasta.This paper is a report on the development and the performance of the
composite leading indicator of the Croatian economy ā CROLEI, those purpose is to forecast classical business and growth cycles. The structure of the paper follows the latest CROLEI revision, based on NBER barometric method. After briefly describing the characteristics of CROLEI and its database, the turning points in the reference series (industrial production) are determined by applying Bry-Boschan algorithm. By combining the graphic analysis, Granger causality and Wald exclusion test on potential leading time series and the reference series, the list of 15 best leading series is compiled. Recursive estimation of Granger test is applied to check whether the time seriesĀ“ leading properties are stabile over time. Then 14 composite leading indicators are constructed from 15 best leading series. In order to decide which composite indicator yields the best forecasts, Granger causality test is used. New CROLEI indicator is composed of 7 series and leads the reference series by 8 months. Additionally, a diffusion index - an auxiliary tool for forecasting business and growth cycles - is constructed
Regionalna konkurentnost u kontekstu āNove industrijske politikeā na primjeru Hrvatske
The purpose of this paper is to do research on regional conditions that are most
conducive to maximising the positive effects of the implementation of āNew
industrial policyā (policy based on Smart specialisation strategy) to regional
competitiveness in Croatia. Rather than using the standard but fragmented system of
counties, this small post-transition economy is first mapped into five regions
following the concept of regional innovation systems (RISs). Essentially, RIS concept
rests on an idea that interactions among regional agents lead to the creation of
optimal innovation output, while policy based on Smart specialisation strategy in
Croatia is a national policy that promotes creation of innovative products and
services in five promising domains and 13 sub-thematic areas. Analysis is carried
out in two steps, firstly using a data-driven approach employed in a multidimensional
framework for assessing regional accessibility, absorptive capacity and diffusion of
knowledge in the context of Smart specialisation strategy (S3) implementation. In the
second step, the assumption of post-transition reliance on the external knowledge
and technology in producing innovation output is examined via regional presence of
high-technology firms, GDP per capita and international trade and investment
variables and patents per 100.000 inhabitants using cluster analysis (Ward method).
The results show that highly internationalised regions with higher density of hightechnology
firms already produce relatively more innovation output per capita. With already favourable conditions in place, these progressive regions are most likely to
reinforce their competitive advantages through the transformation of their economic
structures enabled by implementation of S3.Regionalna konkurentnost u kontekstu āNove industrijske politikeā na
primjeru Hrvatsk