Using network theory to identify the causes of disease outbreaks of unknown origin.

The identification of undiagnosed disease outbreaks is critical for mobilizing efforts to prevent widespread transmission of novel virulent pathogens. Recent developments in online surveillance systems allow for the rapid communication of the earliest reports of emerging infectious diseases and tracking of their spread. The efficacy of these programs, however, is inhibited by the anecdotal nature of informal reporting and uncertainty of pathogen identity in the early stages of emergence. We developed theory to connect disease outbreaks of known aetiology in a network using an array of properties including symptoms, seasonality and case-fatality ratio. We tested the method with 125 reports of outbreaks of 10 known infectious diseases causing encephalitis in South Asia, and showed that different diseases frequently form distinct clusters within the networks. The approach correctly identified unknown disease outbreaks with an average sensitivity of 76 per cent and specificity of 88 per cent. Outbreaks of some diseases, such as Nipah virus encephalitis, were well identified (sensitivity = 100%, positive predictive values = 80%), whereas others (e.g. Chandipura encephalitis) were more difficult to distinguish. These results suggest that unknown outbreaks in resource-poor settings could be evaluated in real time, potentially leading to more rapid responses and reducing the risk of an outbreak becoming a pandemic

Influence of Exposure to Imidacloprid on Survivorship, Reproduction and Vitellin Content of the Carmine Spider Mite, Tetranychus cinnabarinus

Occasional reports linking neonicotinoid insecticide applications to field population outbreaks of the spider mite have been a topic of concern for integrated pest management programs. To elucidate the impacts of a neonicotinoid insecticide on the carmine spider mite, Tetranychus cinnabarinus Boisduval (Acari: Tetranychidae), the survivorship, reproduction, and vitellin contents of the mite were investigated after exposure to various concentrations of imidacloprid on the V. unguiculata leaf discs at 25°C, 80% RH and a photoperiod of 14:10 (L:D) in the laboratory. The results showed that the field-relevant dose of imidacloprid did not significantly affect the hatch rate of eggs or pre-imaginal survivorship of the mite, while sublethal doses of imidacloprid, previously determined for Myzus persicae, led to a significant increase in the hatch rate of eggs and pre-imaginal survivorship of the mite compared to the untreated control. Adult longevity and fecundity of T. cinnabarinus for imidacloprid-treated populations were slightly prolonged and increased, respectively, but the difference from the untreated control was not significant. The vitellin content in eggs increased significantly after exposure to imidacloprid. Imidacloprid may be one of the major reasons for the outbreak of T. cinnabarinus in the field

Organism-sediment interactions govern post-hypoxia recovery of ecosystem functioning

Hypoxia represents one of the major causes of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning loss for coastal waters. Since eutrophication-induced hypoxic events are becoming increasingly frequent and intense, understanding the response of ecosystems to hypoxia is of primary importance to understand and predict the stability of ecosystem functioning. Such ecological stability may greatly depend on the recovery patterns of communities and the return time of the system properties associated to these patterns. Here, we have examined how the reassembly of a benthic community contributed to the recovery of ecosystem functioning following experimentally-induced hypoxia in a tidal flat. We demonstrate that organism-sediment interactions that depend on organism size and relate to mobility traits and sediment reworking capacities are generally more important than recovering species richness to set the return time of the measured sediment processes and properties. Specifically, increasing macrofauna bioturbation potential during community reassembly significantly contributed to the recovery of sediment processes and properties such as denitrification, bedload sediment transport, primary production and deep pore water ammonium concentration. Such bioturbation potential was due to the replacement of the small-sized organisms that recolonised at early stages by large-sized bioturbating organisms, which had a disproportionately stronger influence on sediment. This study suggests that the complete recovery of organism-sediment interactions is a necessary condition for ecosystem functioning recovery, and that such process requires long periods after disturbance due to the slow growth of juveniles into adult stages involved in these interactions. Consequently, repeated episodes of disturbance at intervals smaller than the time needed for the system to fully recover organism-sediment interactions may greatly impair the resilience of ecosystem functioning.

Effects of fatigue on trunk stability in elite gymnasts

The aim of the present study was to test the hypothesis that fatigue due to exercises performed in training leads to a decrement of trunk stability in elite, female gymnasts. Nine female gymnasts participated in the study. To fatigue trunk muscles, four series of five dump handstands on the uneven bar were performed. Before and after the fatigue protocol, participants performed three trials of a balancing task while sitting on a seat fixed over a hemisphere to create an unstable surface. A force plate tracked the location of the center of pressure (CoP). In addition, nine trials were performed in which the seat was backward inclined over a set angle and suddenly released after which the subject had to regain balance. Sway amplitude and frequency in unperturbed sitting were determined from the CoP time series and averaged over trials. The maximum displacement and rate of recovery of the CoP location after the sudden release were determined and averaged over trials. After the fatigue protocol, sway amplitude in the fore-aft direction was significantly increased (p = 0.03), while sway frequency was decreased (p = 0.005). In addition, the maximum displacement after the sudden release was increased (p = 0.009), while the rate of recovery after the perturbation was decreased (p = 0.05). Fatigue induced by series of exercises representing a realistic training load caused a measurable decrement in dynamic stability of the trunk in elite gymnasts

The Warden Attitude: An investigation of the value of interaction with everyday wildlife

Using a discrete choice experiment, we elicit valuations of engagement with ‘everyday wildlife’ through feeding garden birds. We find that bird-feeding is primarily but not exclusively motivated by the direct consumption value of interaction with wildlife. The implicit valuations given to different species suggest that people prefer birds that have aesthetic appeal and that evoke human feelings of protectiveness. These findings suggest that people derive wellbeing by adopting a warden-like role towards ‘their’ wildlife. We test for external validity by conducting a hedonic analysis of sales of bird food. We discuss some policy implications of the existence of warden attitudes

Knowledge of causes, clinical features and diagnosis of common zoonoses among medical practitioners in Tanzania

Many factors have been mentioned as contributing to under-diagnosis and under-reporting of zoonotic diseases particularly in the sub-Sahara African region. These include poor disease surveillance coverage, poor diagnostic capacity, the geographical distribution of those most affected and lack of clear strategies to address the plight of zoonotic diseases. The current study investigates the knowledge of medical practitioners of zoonotic diseases as a potential contributing factor to their under-diagnosis and hence under-reporting. The study was designed as a cross-sectional survey. Semi-structured open-ended questionnaire was administered to medical practitioners to establish the knowledge of anthrax, rabies, brucellosis, trypanosomiasis, echinococcosis and bovine tuberculosis in selected health facilities within urban and rural settings in Tanzania between April and May 2005. Frequency data were analyzed using likelihood ratio chi-square in Minitab version 14 to compare practitioners' knowledge of transmission, clinical features and diagnosis of the zoonoses in the two settings. For each analysis, likelihood ratio chi-square p-value of less than 0.05 was considered to be significant. Fisher's exact test was used where expected results were less than five. Medical practitioners in rural health facilities had poor knowledge of transmission of sleeping sickness and clinical features of anthrax and rabies in humans compared to their urban counterparts. In both areas the practitioners had poor knowledge of how echinococcosis is transmitted to humans, clinical features of echinococcosis in humans, and diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis in humans. Knowledge of medical practitioners of zoonotic diseases could be a contributing factor to their under-diagnosis and under-reporting in Tanzania. Refresher courses on zoonotic diseases should be conducted particularly to practitioners in rural areas. More emphasis should be put on zoonotic diseases in teaching curricula of medical practitioners' training institutions in Tanzania to improve the diagnosis, reporting and control of zoonotic diseases. Veterinary and medical collaboration should be strengthened to enable more effective control of zoonotic diseases in Tanzania