38 research outputs found

    Does the Effectiveness of Control Measures Depend on the Influenza Pandemic Profile?

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    BACKGROUND: Although strategies to contain influenza pandemics are well studied, the characterization and the implications of different geographical and temporal diffusion patterns of the pandemic have been given less attention. METHODOLOGY/MAIN FINDINGS: Using a well-documented metapopulation model incorporating air travel between 52 major world cities, we identified potential influenza pandemic diffusion profiles and examined how the impact of interventions might be affected by this heterogeneity. Clustering methods applied to a set of pandemic simulations, characterized by seven parameters related to the conditions of emergence that were varied following Latin hypercube sampling, were used to identify six pandemic profiles exhibiting different characteristics notably in terms of global burden (from 415 to >160 million of cases) and duration (from 26 to 360 days). A multivariate sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate and proportion of susceptibles have a strong impact on the pandemic diffusion. The correlation between interventions and pandemic outcomes were analyzed for two specific profiles: a fast, massive pandemic and a slow building, long-lasting one. In both cases, the date of introduction for five control measures (masks, isolation, prophylactic or therapeutic use of antivirals, vaccination) correlated strongly with pandemic outcomes. Conversely, the coverage and efficacy of these interventions only moderately correlated with pandemic outcomes in the case of a massive pandemic. Pre-pandemic vaccination influenced pandemic outcomes in both profiles, while travel restriction was the only measure without any measurable effect in either. CONCLUSIONS: our study highlights: (i) the great heterogeneity in possible profiles of a future influenza pandemic; (ii) the value of being well prepared in every country since a pandemic may have heavy consequences wherever and whenever it starts; (iii) the need to quickly implement control measures and even to anticipate pandemic emergence through pre-pandemic vaccination; and (iv) the value of combining all available control measures except perhaps travel restrictions

    Identification of Novel Avian Influenza Virus Derived CD8+ T-Cell Epitopes

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    Avian influenza virus (AIV) infection is a continuing threat to both humans and poultry. Influenza virus specific CD8+ T cells are associated with protection against homologous and heterologous influenza strains. In contrast to what has been described for humans and mice, knowledge on epitope-specific CD8+ T cells in chickens is limited. Therefore, we set out to identify AIV-specific CD8+ T-cell epitopes. Epitope predictions based on anchor residues resulted in 33 candidate epitopes. MHC I inbred chickens were infected with a low pathogenic AIV strain and sacrificed at 5, 7, 10 and 14 days post infection (dpi). Lymphocytes isolated from lung, spleen and blood were stimulated ex vivo with AIV-specific pooled or individual peptides and the production of IFNγ was determined by ELIspot. This resulted in the identification of 12 MHC B12-restricted, 3 B4-restricted and 1 B19-restricted AIV- specific CD8+ T-cell epitopes. In conclusion, we have identified novel AIV-derived CD8+ T-cell epitopes for several inbred chicken strains. This knowledge can be used to study the role of CD8+ T cells against AIV infection in a natural host for influenza, and may be important for vaccine development

    Evolutionary Trends of A(H1N1) Influenza Virus Hemagglutinin Since 1918

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    The Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 is spreading to numerous countries and causing many human deaths. Although the symptoms in humans are mild at present, fears are that further mutations in the virus could lead to a potentially more dangerous outbreak in subsequent months. As the primary immunity-eliciting antigen, hemagglutinin (HA) is the major agent for host-driven antigenic drift in A(H3N2) virus. However, whether and how the evolution of HA is influenced by existing immunity is poorly understood for A(H1N1). Here, by analyzing hundreds of A(H1N1) HA sequences since 1918, we show the first evidence that host selections are indeed present in A(H1N1) HAs. Among a subgroup of human A(H1N1) HAs between 1918∼2008, we found strong diversifying (positive) selection at HA1 156 and 190. We also analyzed the evolutionary trends at HA1 190 and 225 that are critical determinants for receptor-binding specificity of A(H1N1) HA. Different A(H1N1) viruses appeared to favor one of these two sites in host-driven antigenic drift: epidemic A(H1N1) HAs favor HA1 190 while the 1918 pandemic and swine HAs favor HA1 225. Thus, our results highlight the urgency to understand the interplay between antigenic drift and receptor binding in HA evolution, and provide molecular signatures for monitoring future antigenically drifted 2009 pandemic and seasonal A(H1N1) influenza viruses

    Depression care management for late-life depression in China primary care: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As a major public health issue in China and worldwide, late-life depression is associated with physical limitations, greater functional impairment, increased utilization and cost of health care, and suicide. Like other chronic diseases in elders such as hypertension and diabetes, depression is a chronic disease that the new National Health Policy of China indicates should be managed in primary care settings. Collaborative care, linking primary and mental health specialty care, has been shown to be effective for the treatment of late-life depression in primary care settings in Western countries. The primary aim of this project is to implement a depression care management (DCM) intervention, and examine its effectiveness on the depressive symptoms of older patients in Chinese primary care settings.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The trial is a multi-site, primary clinic based randomized controlled trial design in Hangzhou, China. Sixteen primary care clinics will be enrolled in and randomly assigned to deliver either DCM or care as usual (CAU) (8 clinics each) to 320 patients (aged ≥ 60 years) with major depression (20/clinic; n = 160 in each treatment condition). In the DCM arm, primary care physicians (PCPs) will prescribe 16 weeks of antidepressant medication according to the treatment guideline protocol. Care managers monitor the progress of treatment and side effects, educate patients/family, and facilitate communication between providers; psychiatrists will provide weekly group psychiatric consultation and CM supervision. Patients in both DCM and CAU arms will be assessed by clinical research coordinators at baseline, 4, 8, 12, 18, and 24 months. Depressive symptoms, functional status, treatment stigma and clients' satisfaction will be used to assess patients' outcomes; and clinic practices, attitudes/knowledge, and satisfaction will be providers' outcomes.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This will be the first trial of the effectiveness of a collaborative care intervention aiming to the management of late-life depression in China primary care. If effective, its finding will have relevance to policy makers who wish to scale up DCM treatments for late-life depression in national wide primary care across China.</p> <p>Study Registration</p> <p>The DCM project is registered through the National Institutes of Health sponsored by clinical trials registry and has been assigned the identifier: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01287494">NCT01287494</a></p
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