Value-at-risk forecasting of the CARBS Indices

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to use calibrated univariate GARCH family models to forecast volatility and value at risk (VaR) of the CARBS indices and a global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP) constructed using the CARBS equity indices. the reliability of the different volatility forecasts are tested using the mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean squared error (MSE). The rolling forecast of VaR is tested using a back-testing procedure. The results indicate that the use of a rolling forecast from a GARCH model when estimating VaR for the CARBS indices and the GMVP is not a reliable method

About the special issue on: “Distributed Complex Systems: Governance, Engineering, and Maintenance”

The volume at hand presents the Special Issue on "Distributed Complex Systems: Governance, Engineering, and Maintenance". The Special Issue has been originally conceived within the context of the 2(nd) International Workshop on Governing Adaptive and Unplanned Systems of Systems (GAUSS 2020), one of the co-located events of the 31(st) International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering (ISSRE 2020). The authors of the best papers at GAUSS 2020 have been invited to submit an extended version of their previous work. In addition, the editors opened the submission also to all the other researches working on technical and managerial solution for governing Distributed Complex Systems. Ultimate objective of the editors with this Special Issue is to promote discussions focusing on anticipating, mitigating, or reacting to scenarios that were unplanned or under-specified at design time

The factor H-binding fragment of PspC as a vaccine antigen for the induction of protective humoral immunity against experimental pneumococcal sepsis

Pneumococcal surface protein C (PspC) is a major virulence factor of Streptococcus pneumoniae and interferes with complement activity by binding complement factor H (fH). In this study, protection against experimental sepsis caused by pneumococci carrying different PspC variants was evaluated by immunisation with the fH-binding fragment of PspC. The mechanisms of protection mediated by antibodies to PspC were also studied. Mice were immunised with a PspC fragment (PspC(39-261)) from the type 3 strain HB565 and infected intravenously with either strain HB565 (homologous challenge), or strains D39 and TIGR4 (heterologous challenge). Immunisation with PspC(39-261) elicited high titers (>300,000) of PspC-specific serum IgG and conferred protection from challenge with HB565. In contrast, cross-protection was either limited or absent in vaccinated animals infected with D39 and TIGR4, respectively. To correlate protection with reactivity and function of PspC antibodies, pooled sera from vaccinated mice were tested in IgG binding and complement deposition experiments. IgG antibodies efficiently bound to HB565, while binding was lower with D39 and absent with TIGR4. In the presence of mouse post-immune sera, C3 deposition was increased onto HB565, while no effect was observed with D39 and TIGR4. Antibody cross-reactivity and complement deposition progressively declined with reduced amino acid identity between PspC variants. Antibodies to PspC were also found to interfere with fH binding to HB565. Finally, in vitro and ex vivo phagocytosis assays demonstrated that PspC-specific antibodies promoted opsonophagocytic killing of bacteria

Contribution of different pneumococcal virulence factors to experimental meningitis in mice

Background: Pneumococcal meningitis (PM) is a life-threatening disease with a high case-fatality rate and elevated risk for serious neurological sequelae. In this study, we investigated the contribution of three major virulence factors of Streptococcus pneumoniae, the capsule, pneumococcal surface protein A (PspA) and C (PspC), to the pathogenesis of experimental PM. Methods: Mice were challenged by the intracranial route with the serotype 4 TIGR4 strain (wt) and three isogenic mutants devoid of PspA, PspC, and the capsule. Survival, bacterial counts, and brain histology were carried out. To study the interaction between S. pneumoniae mutants and microglia, phagocytosis and survival experiments were performed using the BV2 mouse microglial cell line. Results: Virulence of the PspC mutant was comparable to that of TIGR4. In contrast, survival of animals challenged with the PspA mutant was significantly increased compared with the wt, and the mutant was also impaired at replicating in the brain and blood of infected mice. Brain histology indicated that all strains, except for the unencapsulated mutant, caused PM. Analysis of inflammation and damage in the brain of mice infected with TIGR4 or its unencapsulated mutant demonstrated that the rough strain was unable to induce inflammation and neuronal injury, even at high challenge doses. Results with BV2 cells showed no differences in phagocytic uptake between wt and mutants. In survival assays, however, the PspA mutant showed significantly reduced survival in microglia compared with the wt. Conclusions: PspA contributed to PM pathogenesis possibly by interacting with microglia at early infection stages, while PspC had limited importance in the disease. The rough mutant did not cause brain inflammation, neuronal damage or mouse death, strengthening the key role of the capsule in PM

A comparison of nimesulide beta cyclodextrin and nimesulide in postoperative dental pain.

The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy and tolerability of single doses of nimesulide beta cyclodextrin compared with nimesulide in patients with dental pain following surgical procedures. This was a randomised, double-blind, between-patient, multicentre study involving 148 outpatients suffering from moderate to severe pain, who received single doses of either 400 mg nimesulide beta cyclodextrin or 100 mg nimesulide. The principal criterion for efficacy was pain intensity assessed on a visual analogue scale (VAS) 15 minutes after drug intake. Pain intensity was further evaluated 30, 45, 90, 120, 180, 240 and 360 minutes after dosing. Pain relief was evaluated at the same time points by means of a categorical scale. The time point of first pain relief, the use of rescue medication and the global evaluation of efficacy were also recorded. The reduction in pain intensity was significantly more pronounced in the nimesulide beta cyclodextrin group at 15, 30, 45 and 60 minutes (p < 0.01). Pain relief was significantly greater (p < 0.05) and more rapid with nimesulide beta cyclodextrin. In the patient overall assessment of efficacy, nimesulide beta cyclodextrin and nimesulide were rated excellent or good by 95\% and 92\% respectively; only one patient in the nimesulide beta cyclodextrin group needed rescue medication. Both study drugs were effective and well tolerated in the treatment of acute dental pain, with nimesulide beta cyclodextrin showing a faster onset of analgesic action