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Eleições e desempenho macroeconômico na América Latina (1979-1998)

This article presents an analysis of the different theoretical models for the relationship between elections and economics, as well as econometric tests applied to GDP and employment trends in Latin American democracies from 1979 to 1998. Considering that a government's possibilities for pushing its policy objectives forward depends on its agenda power, the article analyzes the majority versus minority nature of governments, seeking to define the political conditions that favor a level of macroeconomic evolution in keeping with the objective of maintaining power. On the one hand, the results of empirical tests show a post-electoral deterioration of target indicators, as predicted by theoretical models. On the other hand, greater economic dynamism in election years is observed more frequently in governments with a majority in the legislature, a characteristic of the political system generally associated with greater macroeconomic policy efficiency, but also a condition favoring electoral manipulation of policy

Elections and macroeconomic performance in Latin America (1979-1998)

Dans cet article, on présente une analyse des différents modèles théoriques sur le rapport entre les élections et l’économie, ainsi que des tests économétriques appliqués à l’évolution du PIB et du chômage dans les démocraties latino-américaines entre les années 1979 et 1998. Compte tenu du fait que les probabilités qui se présentent à un gouvernement d’atteindre ses objectifs politiques dépendent de sa capacité à programmer ses engagements, on analyse ici le caractère majoritaire ou minoritaire des gouvernements en visant à définir les conditions politiques favorables à une évolution macroéconomique en accord avec le but de garder le pouvoir. Les résultats des tests empiriques montrent, d’un côté, une détérioration des indicateurs étudiés une fois les élections passées, tel que le prévoyaient les modèles théoriques. D’un autre côté, on observe un plus grand dynamisme de l’activité économique pendant les années électorales chez les gouvernements de majorité législative. Cette caractéristique du système politique est souvent associée à une plus grande efficacité de la politique macroéconomique, mais est vue aussi comme condition favorable à une manipulation électorale de celle-ci

Elecciones y resultados macroeconómicos en América Latina (1979-1998)

Artículo originalUna de las principales teorías sobre ciclos políticos-económicos sostiene que los gobiernos, preocupados por mantenerse en el poder, manipulan los instrumentos de política pública antes de las elecciones, buscando una mejora de los resultados macroeconómicos en el año electoral, pero generando un deterioro pos-electoral de dichos indicadores, dando lugar así al llamado ciclo electoral oportunista. En este artículo dicho modelo es aplicado para las democracias latinoamericanas en el perído 1979-1998. Sin embargo, las probabilidades que tiene un gobierno de llevar adelante sus objetivos dependen de su poder de agenda, dimensión de análisis no incorporada en el modelo teórico tradicional. Por esa razón es considerado el carácter mayoritario o minoritario del gobierno con el objetivo de definir condiciones políticas e institucionales que facilitan o inhiben la manifestación de ciclos políticos en la economía. Los resultados de los tests empíricos sugieren que una evolución de los indicadores macroeconómicos acorde con comportamientos oportunistas ha sido más frecuente en gobiernos mayoritarios, una condición política frecuentemente asociada a un buen desempeño económic

Os rumos da judicialização da política de medicamentos

O estudo ressalta ações estratégicas direcionadas a garantir o acesso dos indivíduos a medicamentos, e, ao mesmo tempo, garantir a permanência da política pública de medicamentos desenvolvida pelo Estado. Os achados apontam que a intervenção do Judiciário promove uma alternativa possível e eficaz para aqueles que, através da Justiça, buscam o fornecimento gratuito de um medicamento

Méritos e limites da teoria da escolha racional como ferramenta de interpretação do comportamento social e político

This article presents an approach to rational choice theory, with special emphasis on the capacity of this theory in helping to understand social relations and problems. The aim of this work is to present, in a clear and comprehensive way, the main concepts of the theory of rational choice to a social science audience, which usually sees it as a hard theory. The idea is to highlight the virtues and limitations of this theory. This theoretical approach considers the individual action performed according to autonomous and rational motivations as central to the understanding of social systems, and conceives institutions as the elements that inform and shape the options available to the individual and collective choices. In this sense, rationality is seen as a way of maximizing the preferences of agents who have utilitarian calculation capacity. Their preferences depend on their degree of knowledge or information about the set of opportunities available to them. Assuming this premise of rationality, according to which actions aim to satisfy preferences and not act against them, the theory of rational choice presupposes that individuals are able to make associations between the known and available means and the ends intended by them. Thus, rational choices approach an optimal point, despite their ability to achieve the desired degree of satisfaction. In other words, the use of strict rationality in the field of social choices will not always cause the expected results to be optimal and maximize usefulness or well-being. The rational actions may have unintended negative effects, depending on the informational asymmetries, the position in the decision-making spectrum and/or calculation errors. Revisiting these concepts is the aim of this article, as a way of providing readers with a more accessible understanding of the scope and restrictions of the rational choice theory

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