Evidence on the magnitude of the economic, health and population effects of palm cooking oil consumption: an integrated modelling approach with Thailand as a case study

BACKGROUND: Palm oil’s high yields, consequent low cost and highly versatile properties as a cooking oil and food ingredient have resulted in its thorough infiltration of the food sector in some countries. Longitudinal studies have associated palm oil’s high saturated fatty acid content with non-communicable disease, but neither the economic or disease burdens have been assessed previously. // METHODS: This novel palm oil-focussed disease burden assessment employs a fully integrated health, macroeconomic and demographic Computable General Equilibrium Model for Thailand with nine regional (urban/rural) households. Nutritional changes from food consumption are endogenously translated into health (myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke) and population outcomes and are fed back into the macroeconomic model as health and caregiver-related productive labour supply effects and healthcare costs to generate holistic 2016–2035 burden estimates. Model scenarios mirror the replacement of palm cooking oil with other dietary oils and are compared with simulated total Thai health and macroeconomic burdens for MI and stroke. // RESULTS: Replacing consumption of palm cooking oil with other dietary oils could reduce MI/stroke incident cases by 8280/2639 and cumulative deaths by 4683/894 over 20 years, removing approximately 0.5% of the total Thai burden of MI/stroke. This palm cooking oil replacement would reduce consumption shares of saturated/monounsaturated fatty acids in Thai household consumption by 6.5%/3% and increase polyunsaturated fatty acid consumption shares by 14%, yielding a 1.74% decrease in the population-wide total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio after 20 years. The macroeconomic burden that would be removed is US$308mn, approximately 0.44% of the total burden of MI/stroke on Thailand’s economy or 0.003% of cumulative 20-year GDP. Bangkok and Central region households benefit most from removal of disease burdens. // CONCLUSIONS: Simulations indicate that consumption of palm cooking oil, rather than other dietary oils, imposes a negative health burden (MI and stroke) and associated economic burden on a high consuming country, such as Thailand. Integrated sectoral model frameworks to assess these burdens are possible, and burden estimates from our simulated direct replacement of palm cooking oil indicate that using these frameworks both for broader analyses of dietary palm oil use and total burden analyses of other diseases may also be beneficial

The promise of genomics in the study of plant-pollinator interactions

Flowers exist in exceedingly complex fitness landscapes, in which subtle variation in each trait can affect the pollinators, herbivores and pleiotropically linked traits in other plant tissues. A whole-genome approach to flower evolution will help our understanding of plant-pollinator interactions

The Psychophysiological Regulation of Pacing Behaviour and Performance Fatigability During Long-Distance Running with Locomotor Muscle Fatigue and Exercise-Induced Muscle Damage in Highly Trained Runners

Background Locomotor muscle fatigue (LMMF) and exercise-induced muscle damage (EIMD) are common conditions experienced during long-distance running due to the pooled effect of mechanical and metabolic strain on the locomotor muscles. However, little is known about the instant effects of combined LMMF and EIMD on pacing behaviour and performance during the decisive final stages of ‘real-world’ long-distance running events. Methods Twenty-two highly trained runners (11 females) completed two maximal self-paced 20-km treadmill time trials in a counterbalanced crossover design: (A) in a tapered condition and (B) with LMMF and EIMD. Indicators of muscle damage, muscle metabolic strain, and endocrinological stress were assessed to investigate the physiological effects, and a three-dimensional framework of perceived fatigability was applied to investigate the perceptual effects of running with LMMF and EIMD on performance fatigability. Results LMMF and EIMD caused restrictions in work capacity and medium increases in blood leucocyte and neutrophil count, interleukin-6, and cortisol concentrations, collectively constituting a physiological milieu likely not conducive to high performance. LMMF and EIMD further caused large increases in perceived physical strain and large decreases in valence as well as large increases and decreases in action crisis and flow state, respectively. Conclusions Under the constraint of amplified physical duress, findings are suggestive of heuristic and rational antecedents in the goal disengagement process. Dynamic changes in physiological and perceptual effects of LMMF and EIMD are hypothesised to underpin the observed alterations in pacing behaviour and performance fatigability during long-distance running. The applied three-dimensional framework provides a more comprehensive understanding of strain-perception-thinking-action coupling in centrally regulated and goal-directed exercise behaviour