Forecasting disconnected exchange rates

Catalyzed by the work of Meese and Rogoff (1983), a large literature has documented the inability of empirical models to accurately forecast exchange rates out-of-sample. This paper extends the literature by introducing an empirical strategy that endogenously builds forecast models from a broad set of conventional exchange rate signals. The method is extremely flexible, allowing for potentially nonlinear models for each currency and forecast horizon that evolve over time. Analysis of the models selected by the procedure sheds light on the erratic behavior of exchange rates and their apparent disconnect from macroeconomic fundamentals. In terms of forecast ability, the Meese-Rogoff result remains intact. At short horizons, the method cannot outperform a random walk, although at longer horizons the method does outperform the random walk null. These findings are found consistently across currencies and forecast evaluation methods.

A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011

This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others —this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We also use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. We conclude by evaluating candidate leading indicators and hence construct recession probability forecasts up to 12 months in the future.Business cycles ; Spain

Future recession risks: an update

In 2010, statistical experiments based on components of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index showed a significant possibility of a U.S. recession over a 24-month period. Since then, the European sovereign debt crisis has aggravated international threats to the U.S. economy. Moreover, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami demonstrated that the U.S. economy is vulnerable to outside disruptions. Updated forecasts suggest that the probability of a U.S. recession has remained elevated and may have increased over the past year, in part because of foreign financial and economic crises.Recessions

Bell's Theorem and Nonlinear Systems

For all Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-type experiments on deterministic systems the Bell inequality holds, unless non-local interactions exist between certain parts of the setup. Here we show that in nonlinear systems the Bell inequality can be violated by non-local effects that are arbitrarily weak. Then we show that the quantum result of the existing Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-type experiments can be reproduced within deterministic models that include arbitrarily weak non-local effects.Comment: Accepted for publication in Europhysics Letters. 14 pages, no figures. In the Appendix (not included in the EPL version) the author says what he really thinks about the subjec

How Native American rappers communicate and create a modern identity

Current research concerning identity and Native Americans is sparse outside the realm of expressly Native American scholarship. While most conversations about identity and Native Americans focuses on historical and political aspects, many sources do not explore alternative avenues of contemporary identity creation. This thesis uses Kenneth Burke’s pentad to analyze the lyrics for “AbOriginal” by Frank Waln. The pentad is used to analyze each line of the rap. A new term, alter-agent, is used to identify agents who the agent either associates with or who the agent views as hindering his progress. There is then a count of the number of occurrences of each element of the pentad throughout the lyrics in order to determine the pentadic ratio of the song. The findings of this analysis show that Frank Waln communicates identity in “AbOriginal” using an act-agent ratio, which relies on a mixture of realism and idealism. Most rap songs will also show an act-agent ratio since rap tends to rely on rapper persona when communicating ideas. Further research should occur using Burke’s pentad, with the addition of the term “alter-agent” to analyze other works in terms of identity

Method and apparatus for shaping and enhancing acoustical levitation forces

A method and apparatus for enhancing and shaping acoustical levitation forces in a single-axis acoustic resonance system wherein specially shaped drivers and reflectors are utilized to enhance to levitation force and better contain fluid substance by means of field shaping is described

Prevalence of Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease (RHD) in wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Flanders, Belgium, 1999-2002

During the period of July 1999 through June 2002, carcasses of wild rabbits that had been shot or found dead and livers originating from wild rabbits that had been shot for consumption were collected in Flanders. One hundred and twelve carcasses were suitable for necropsy and histological and bacteriological analysis; histological analysis was possible in 41 livers. Considering the 112 rabbit carcasses only, Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease (RHD) was found to be present in 33.9% of the cases. RHD was the most prevalent wild rabbit pathology detected in this study, before staphylococcosis (12.5%), and myxomatosis (10.7%). None of the liver samples from rabbits shot for consumption were positive for RHD. Of the 38 histologically RHD positive samples, 24 were analyzed with the hemagglutination (HA) technique, yielding 58.3% positive results. Seven samples that were histologically positive for RHD but HA negative were examined by transmission electron microscopy and were found positive for calicivirus. This proves that HA-negative RHD strains are circulating in the Flemish wild rabbit population

Lafora disease offers a unique window into neuronal glycogen metabolism

Lafora disease (LD) is a fatal, autosomal recessive, glycogen-storage disorder that manifests as severe epilepsy. LD results from mutations in the gene encoding either the glycogen phosphatase laforin or the E3 ubiquitin ligase malin. Individuals with LD develop cytoplasmic, aberrant glycogen inclusions in nearly all tissues that more closely resemble plant starch than human glycogen. This Minireview discusses the unique window into glycogen metabolism that LD research offers. It also highlights recent discoveries, including that glycogen contains covalently bound phosphate and that neurons synthesize glycogen and express both glycogen synthase and glycogen phosphorylase