Identification in Simple Binary Outcome Panel Data Models

This paper first reviews some of the approaches that have been taken to estimate the common parameters of binary outcome models with fixed effects. We limit attention to situations in which the researcher has access to a data set with a large number of units (individuals or companies, for example) observed over a number of time periods. We then apply some of the existing approaches to study fixed-effects panel data versions of entry games, like the ones studied in Bresnahan and Reiss (1991) and Tamer (2003)

Consequences of temperature and temperature variability on swimming activity, group structure, and predation of endangered delta smelt

The effects of water temperature on individual and group movement behaviour in prey fish can affect ecological interactions such as competition and predation, but how variability in temperature influence fish behaviour is less understood. Of particular concern is how increased warming in tidally fluctuating estuaries may impact the native and endangered delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus, Osmeridae). To help address this issue, we tested the effects of increased water temperature (fluctuating [17–21°C] and warm [21°C] acclimated treatments) on juvenile delta smelt individual and group behaviour, response to chemical alarm and predator cues, as well as capacity to evade predation. In addition, predation of delta smelt was tested in the presence of a dominant invasive competitor, Mississippi silversides (Menidia beryllina, Atherinopsidae), as well as comparative predation mortality on Mississippi silversides when isolated. After 7 days of increased temperature treatments, delta smelt in the warm treatment increased swimming velocity, decreased turning angle, and altered group structure with larger inter-individual distances compared to fish in the control (17°C) and fluctuating temperature treatments. Following conspecific and predator chemical alarm cues, delta smelt showed anti-predator responses. Control and fluctuating treatment fish responded to conspecific cues with increased swimming speeds, decreased inter-individual distances and near-neighbour distances, and, after 15 min, fish recovered back to baseline behaviours. In contrast, fish in the warm treatment had not recovered after 15 min, and swimming speeds were maintained at roughly 25 cm/s, close to maximum capabilities. Fish in control and fluctuating treatments showed minimal responses to predator cues, whereas delta smelt exposed to warm conditions significantly increased swimming speeds and decreased turning angle. Predation of delta smelt by largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides, Centrarchidae) was greatest under the warm treatment, correlating with altered behaviours of delta smelt; however, predation of Mississippi silversides was greater than delta smelt, independent of temperature. This study provides novel insight into the group behaviour of delta smelt, their response to predation, and how prolonged exposure to elevated temperature may induce negative individual and group behaviours causing alterations in predator–prey dynamics. This work highlights the importance of testing ecologically realistic temperature fluctuations in experiments as delta smelt had significantly altered responses to elevated temperature, dependent on variability of warming

Tuning reaction products by constrained optimisation

We describe an effective means of defining optimisation criteria for self-optimising reactors, applicable to situations where a compromise is sought between several competing objectives. The problem is framed as a constrained optimisation, in which a lead property is optimised subject to constraints on the values that other properties may assume. Compared to conventional methods (using weighted-sum- and weighted-product-based merit functions), the approach described here is more intuitive, easier to implement, and yields an optimised solution that more faithfully reflects user preferences. The method is applied here to the synthesis of o-xylenyl adducts of Buckminsterfullerene, using a cascadic reaction of the form X0 → X1 → X2 → … XN. Specifically, we selectively target the formation of the (technologically useful) first- and second-order adducts X1 and X2, while at the same time suppressing the formation of unwanted higher-order products. More generally, the approach is applicable to any chemical optimisation involving a trade-off between competing criteria. To assist with implementation we provide a self-contained software package for carrying out constrained optimisation, together with detailed tutorial-style instructions

Drivers and sustainability of bird hunting in Madagascar

Bird conservation depends on robust data on the densities of and threats to each species, and an understanding of the choices and incentives of bird hunters. This first comprehensive study of bird hunting and its effects in Madagascar uses 8 years of data on 87 bird species to determine bird densities and hunting pressure, incentives, choices, methods, spatial variation, and sustainability on the Masoala Peninsula of Madagascar. We find that bird hunting is common, affecting human wellbeing and, for some species, long-term population viability. Hunters caught more abundant species of lower trophic levels and consumers preferred the flavor of abundant granivores and nectarivores, while they disliked carnivores, scavengers, and species with common cultural proscriptions. Wealth increased species selectivity among consumers, whereas food insecurity increased hunting pressure overall. Projected and documented declines in at least three species are concerning, qualifying at least two for increased IUCN threatened species categories. We provide novel, data-driven assessments of hunting's threat to Madagascar's birds, identify key species of concern, and suggest both species- and consumer-specific conservation actions

Multisensory causal inference in the brain

At any given moment, our brain processes multiple inputs from its different sensory modalities (vision, hearing, touch, etc.). In deciphering this array of sensory information, the brain has to solve two problems: (1) which of the inputs originate from the same object and should be integrated and (2) for the sensations originating from the same object, how best to integrate them. Recent behavioural studies suggest that the human brain solves these problems using optimal probabilistic inference, known as Bayesian causal inference. However, how and where the underlying computations are carried out in the brain have remained unknown. By combining neuroimaging-based decoding techniques and computational modelling of behavioural data, a new study now sheds light on how multisensory causal inference maps onto specific brain areas. The results suggest that the complexity of neural computations increases along the visual hierarchy and link specific components of the causal inference process with specific visual and parietal regions

Consistent truncation of d = 11 supergravity on AdS_4 x S^7

We study the system of equations derived twenty five years ago by B. de Wit and the first author [Nucl. Phys. B281 (1987) 211] as conditions for the consistent truncation of eleven-dimensional supergravity on AdS_4 x S^7 to gauged N = 8 supergravity in four dimensions. By exploiting the E_7(7) symmetry, we determine the most general solution to this system at each point on the coset space E_7(7)/SU(8). We show that invariants of the general solution are given by the fluxes in eleven-dimensional supergravity. This allows us to both clarify the explicit non-linear ansatze for the fluxes given previously and to fill a gap in the original proof of the consistent truncation. These results are illustrated with several examples.Comment: 41 pages, typos corrected, published versio